Estimation of unsteady flow fields around flight vehicles may improve flow interactions and lead to enhanced vehicle performance. Although flow-field representations can be very high-dimensional, their dynamics can have low-order representations and may be estimated using a few, appropriately placed measurements. This paper presents a sensor-selection framework for the intended application of data-driven, flow-field estimation. This framework combines data-driven modeling, steady-state Kalman Filter design, and a sparsification technique for sequential selection of sensors. This paper also uses the sensor selection framework to design sensor arrays that can perform well across a variety of operating conditions. Flow estimation results on numerical data show that the proposed framework produces arrays that are highly effective at flow-field estimation for the flow behind and an airfoil at a high angle of attack using embedded pressure sensors. Analysis of the flow fields reveals that paths of impinging stagnation points along the airfoil's surface during a shedding period of the flow are highly informative locations for placement of pressure sensors.
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Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as calibration, of a model, common approaches entail the addition of either data-dependent or data-independent regularization terms to the training loss. Data-dependent regularizers have been recently introduced in the context of conventional frequentist learning to penalize deviations between confidence and accuracy. In contrast, data-independent regularizers are at the core of Bayesian learning, enforcing adherence of the variational distribution in the model parameter space to a prior density. The former approach is unable to quantify epistemic uncertainty, while the latter is severely affected by model misspecification. In light of the limitations of both methods, this paper proposes an integrated framework, referred to as calibration-aware Bayesian neural networks (CA-BNNs), that applies both regularizers while optimizing over a variational distribution as in Bayesian learning. Numerical results validate the advantages of the proposed approach in terms of expected calibration error (ECE) and reliability diagrams.
We demonstrate how Hahn et al.'s Bayesian Causal Forests model (BCF) can be used to estimate conditional average treatment effects for the longitudinal dataset in the 2022 American Causal Inference Conference Data Challenge. Unfortunately, existing implementations of BCF do not scale to the size of the challenge data. Therefore, we developed flexBCF -- a more scalable and flexible implementation of BCF -- and used it in our challenge submission. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to the choice of propensity score estimation method and the use of sparsity-inducing regression tree priors. While we found that our overall point predictions were not especially sensitive to these modeling choices, we did observe that running BCF with flexibly estimated propensity scores often yielded better-calibrated uncertainty intervals.
Consider a multi-dimensional supercritical branching process with offspring distribution in a parametric family. Here, each vector coordinate corresponds to the number of offspring of a given type. The process is observed under family-size sampling: a random sample is drawn, each individual reporting its vector of brood sizes. In this work, we show that the set in which no siblings are sampled (so that the sample can be considered independent) has probability converging to one under certain conditions on the sampling size. Furthermore, we show that the sampling distribution of the observed sizes converges to the product of identical distributions, hence developing a framework for which the process can be considered iid, and the usual methods for parameter estimation apply. We provide asymptotic distributions for the resulting estimators.
Monocular 3D human pose and shape estimation is an ill-posed problem since multiple 3D solutions can explain a 2D image of a subject. Recent approaches predict a probability distribution over plausible 3D pose and shape parameters conditioned on the image. We show that these approaches exhibit a trade-off between three key properties: (i) accuracy - the likelihood of the ground-truth 3D solution under the predicted distribution, (ii) sample-input consistency - the extent to which 3D samples from the predicted distribution match the visible 2D image evidence, and (iii) sample diversity - the range of plausible 3D solutions modelled by the predicted distribution. Our method, HuManiFlow, predicts simultaneously accurate, consistent and diverse distributions. We use the human kinematic tree to factorise full body pose into ancestor-conditioned per-body-part pose distributions in an autoregressive manner. Per-body-part distributions are implemented using normalising flows that respect the manifold structure of SO(3), the Lie group of per-body-part poses. We show that ill-posed, but ubiquitous, 3D point estimate losses reduce sample diversity, and employ only probabilistic training losses. Code is available at: //github.com/akashsengupta1997/HuManiFlow.
Real-time perception and motion planning are two crucial tasks for autonomous driving. While there are many research works focused on improving the performance of perception and motion planning individually, it is still not clear how a perception error may adversely impact the motion planning results. In this work, we propose a joint simulation framework with LiDAR-based perception and motion planning for real-time automated driving. Taking the sensor input from the CARLA simulator with additive noise, a LiDAR perception system is designed to detect and track all surrounding vehicles and to provide precise orientation and velocity information. Next, we introduce a new collision bound representation that relaxes the communication cost between the perception module and the motion planner. A novel collision checking algorithm is implemented using line intersection checking that is more efficient for long distance range in comparing to the traditional method of occupancy grid. We evaluate the joint simulation framework in CARLA for urban driving scenarios. Experiments show that our proposed automated driving system can execute at 25 Hz, which meets the real-time requirement. The LiDAR perception system has high accuracy within 20 meters when evaluated with the ground truth. The motion planning results in consistent safe distance keeping when tested in CARLA urban driving scenarios.
In this paper we examine the use of low-rank approximations for the handling of radiation boundary conditions in a transient heat equation given a cavity radiation setting. The finite element discretization that arises from cavity radiation is well known to be dense, which poses difficulties for efficiency and scalability of solvers. Here we consider a special treatment of the cavity radiation discretization using a block low-rank approximation combined with hierarchical matrices. We provide an overview of the methodology and discusses techniques that can be used to improve efficiency within the framework of hierarchical matrices, including the usage of the approximate cross approximation (ACA) method. We provide a number of numerical results that demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the approach in practical problems, and demonstrate significant speedup and memory reduction compared to the more conventional "dense matrix" approach.
By virtue of technology and benefit advantages, cloud computing has increasingly attracted a large number of potential cloud consumers (PCC) plan to migrate the traditional business to the cloud service. However, trust has become one of the most challenging issues that prevent the PCC from adopting cloud services, especially in trustworthy cloud service selection. Besides, due to the diversity and dynamic of quality of service (QoS) in the cloud environment, the existing trust assessment methods based on the single constant value of QoS attribute and the subjective weight assignment are not good enough to provide an effective solution for PCCs to identify and select a trustworthy cloud service among a wide range of functionally-equivalent cloud service providers (CSPs). To address the challenge, a novel assessment and selection framework for trustworthy cloud service, FASTCloud, is proposed in this study. This framework facilitates PCCs to select a trustworthy cloud service based on their actual QoS requirements. In order to accurately and efficiently assess the trust level of cloud services, a QoS-based trust assessment model is proposed. This model represents a trust level assessment method based on the interval multiple attributes with an objective weight assignment method based on the deviation maximization to adaptively determine the trust level of different cloud services provisioned by candidate CSPs. The advantage of the proposed trust level assessment method in time complexity is demonstrated by the performance analysis and comparison. The experimental result of a case study with an open-source dataset shows that the trust model is efficient in cloud service trust assessment and the FASTCloud can effectively help PCCs select a trustworthy cloud service.
LT (Luby transform) codes are a celebrated family of rateless erasure codes (RECs). Most of existing LT codes were designed for applications in which a centralized encoder possesses all message blocks and is solely responsible for encoding them into codewords. Distributed LT codes, in which message blocks are physically scattered across multiple different locations (encoders) that need to collaboratively perform the encoding, has never been systemically studied before despite its growing importance in applications. In this work, we present the first systemic study of LT codes in the distributed setting, and make the following three major contributions. First, we show that only a proper subset of LT codes are feasible in the distributed setting, and give the sufficient and necessary condition for such feasibility. Second, we propose a distributed encoding protocol that can efficiently implement any feasible code. The protocol is parameterized by a so-called action probability array (APA) that is only a few KBs in size, and any feasible code corresponds to a valid APA setting and vice versa. Third, we propose two heuristic search algorithms that have led to the discovery of feasible codes that are much more efficient than the state of the art.
When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on strong untestable structural assumptions. When one is unwilling to assert such structure, IVs can nonetheless be used to construct bounds on the ATE. Famously, Balke and Pearl (1997) proved tight bounds on the ATE for a binary outcome, in a randomized trial with noncompliance and no covariate information. We demonstrate how these bounds remain useful in observational settings with baseline confounders of the IV, as well as randomized trials with measured baseline covariates. The resulting bounds on the ATE are non-smooth functionals, and thus standard nonparametric efficiency theory is not immediately applicable. To remedy this, we propose (1) under a novel margin condition, influence function-based estimators of the bounds that can attain parametric convergence rates when the nuisance functions are modeled flexibly, and (2) estimators of smooth approximations of these bounds. We propose extensions to continuous outcomes, explore finite sample properties in simulations, and illustrate the proposed estimators in a randomized field experiment studying the effects of canvassing on resulting voter turnout.
Semi-supervised learning by self-training heavily relies on pseudo-label selection (PLS). The selection often depends on the initial model fit on labeled data. Early overfitting might thus be propagated to the final model by selecting instances with overconfident but erroneous predictions, often referred to as confirmation bias. This paper introduces BPLS, a Bayesian framework for PLS that aims to mitigate this issue. At its core lies a criterion for selecting instances to label: an analytical approximation of the posterior predictive of pseudo-samples. We derive this selection criterion by proving Bayes optimality of the posterior predictive of pseudo-samples. We further overcome computational hurdles by approximating the criterion analytically. Its relation to the marginal likelihood allows us to come up with an approximation based on Laplace's method and the Gaussian integral. We empirically assess BPLS for parametric generalized linear and non-parametric generalized additive models on simulated and real-world data. When faced with high-dimensional data prone to overfitting, BPLS outperforms traditional PLS methods.
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