Modern health care systems are conducting continuous, automated surveillance of the electronic medical record (EMR) to identify adverse events with increasing frequency; however, many events such as sepsis do not have elucidated prodromes (i.e., event chains) that can be used to identify and intercept the adverse event early in its course. Clinically relevant and interpretable results require a framework that can (i) infer temporal interactions across multiple patient features found in EMR data (e.g., Labs, vital signs, etc.) and (ii) identify patterns that precede and are specific to an impending adverse event (e.g., sepsis). In this work, we propose a linear multivariate Hawkes process model, coupled with ReLU link function, to recover a Granger Causal (GC) graph with both exciting and inhibiting effects. We develop a scalable two-phase gradient-based method to obtain a maximum surrogate-likelihood estimator, which is shown to be effective via extensive numerical simulation. Our method is subsequently extended to a data set of patients admitted to Grady hospital system in Atlanta, GA, USA, where the estimated GC graph identifies several highly interpretable GC chains that precede sepsis. The code is available at \url{//github.com/SongWei-GT/two-phase-MHP}.
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Wearable sensors such as Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) are often used to assess the performance of human exercise. Common approaches use handcrafted features based on domain expertise or automatically extracted features using time series analysis. Multiple sensors are required to achieve high classification accuracy, which is not very practical. These sensors require calibration and synchronization and may lead to discomfort over longer time periods. Recent work utilizing computer vision techniques has shown similar performance using video, without the need for manual feature engineering, and avoiding some pitfalls such as sensor calibration and placement on the body. In this paper, we compare the performance of IMUs to a video-based approach for human exercise classification on two real-world datasets consisting of Military Press and Rowing exercises. We compare the performance using a single camera that captures video in the frontal view versus using 5 IMUs placed on different parts of the body. We observe that an approach based on a single camera can outperform a single IMU by 10 percentage points on average. Additionally, a minimum of 3 IMUs are required to outperform a single camera. We observe that working with the raw data using multivariate time series classifiers outperforms traditional approaches based on handcrafted or automatically extracted features. Finally, we show that an ensemble model combining the data from a single camera with a single IMU outperforms either data modality. Our work opens up new and more realistic avenues for this application, where a video captured using a readily available smartphone camera, combined with a single sensor, can be used for effective human exercise classification.
Segmentation of objects in a video is challenging due to the nuances such as motion blurring, parallax, occlusions, changes in illumination, etc. Instead of addressing these nuances separately, we focus on building a generalizable solution that avoids overfitting to the individual intricacies. Such a solution would also help us save enormous resources involved in human annotation of video corpora. To solve Video Object Segmentation (VOS) in an unsupervised setting, we propose a new pipeline (FODVid) based on the idea of guiding segmentation outputs using flow-guided graph-cut and temporal consistency. Basically, we design a segmentation model incorporating intra-frame appearance and flow similarities, and inter-frame temporal continuation of the objects under consideration. We perform an extensive experimental analysis of our straightforward methodology on the standard DAVIS16 video benchmark. Though simple, our approach produces results comparable (within a range of ~2 mIoU) to the existing top approaches in unsupervised VOS. The simplicity and effectiveness of our technique opens up new avenues for research in the video domain.
The central limit theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in probability; and establishing its rate of convergence has been a key question since the 1940s. For independent random variables, a series of recent works established optimal error bounds under the Wasserstein-p distance (with p>=1). In this paper, we extend those results to locally dependent random variables, which include m-dependent random fields and U-statistics. Under conditions on the moments and the dependency neighborhoods, we derive optimal rates in the CLT for the Wasserstein-p distance. Our proofs rely on approximating the empirical average of dependent observations by the empirical average of i.i.d. random variables. To do so, we expand the Stein equation to arbitrary orders by adapting the Stein's dependency neighborhood method. Finally we illustrate the applicability of our results by obtaining efficient tail bounds.
This paper describes a data collection campaign and the resulting dataset derived from smartphone sensors characterizing the daily life activities of 3 volunteers in a period of two weeks. The dataset is released as a collection of CSV files containing more than 45K data samples, where each sample is composed by 1332 features related to a heterogeneous set of physical and virtual sensors, including motion sensors, running applications, devices in proximity, and weather conditions. Moreover, each data sample is associated with a ground truth label that describes the user activity and the situation in which she was involved during the sensing experiment (e.g., working, at restaurant, and doing sport activity). To avoid introducing any bias during the data collection, we performed the sensing experiment in-the-wild, that is, by using the volunteers' devices, and without defining any constraint related to the user's behavior. For this reason, the collected dataset represents a useful source of real data to both define and evaluate a broad set of novel context-aware solutions (both algorithms and protocols) that aim to adapt their behavior according to the changes in the user's situation in a mobile environment.
Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.
Existing recommender systems extract the user preference based on learning the correlation in data, such as behavioral correlation in collaborative filtering, feature-feature, or feature-behavior correlation in click-through rate prediction. However, regretfully, the real world is driven by causality rather than correlation, and correlation does not imply causation. For example, the recommender systems can recommend a battery charger to a user after buying a phone, in which the latter can serve as the cause of the former, and such a causal relation cannot be reversed. Recently, to address it, researchers in recommender systems have begun to utilize causal inference to extract causality, enhancing the recommender system. In this survey, we comprehensively review the literature on causal inference-based recommendation. At first, we present the fundamental concepts of both recommendation and causal inference as the basis of later content. We raise the typical issues that the non-causality recommendation is faced. Afterward, we comprehensively review the existing work of causal inference-based recommendation, based on a taxonomy of what kind of problem causal inference addresses. Last, we discuss the open problems in this important research area, along with interesting future works.
With its powerful capability to deal with graph data widely found in practical applications, graph neural networks (GNNs) have received significant research attention. However, as societies become increasingly concerned with data privacy, GNNs face the need to adapt to this new normal. This has led to the rapid development of federated graph neural networks (FedGNNs) research in recent years. Although promising, this interdisciplinary field is highly challenging for interested researchers to enter into. The lack of an insightful survey on this topic only exacerbates this problem. In this paper, we bridge this gap by offering a comprehensive survey of this emerging field. We propose a unique 3-tiered taxonomy of the FedGNNs literature to provide a clear view into how GNNs work in the context of Federated Learning (FL). It puts existing works into perspective by analyzing how graph data manifest themselves in FL settings, how GNN training is performed under different FL system architectures and degrees of graph data overlap across data silo, and how GNN aggregation is performed under various FL settings. Through discussions of the advantages and limitations of existing works, we envision future research directions that can help build more robust, dynamic, efficient, and interpretable FedGNNs.
This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
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