Reachable sets of nonlinear control systems can in general only be approximated numerically, and these approximations are typically very expensive to compute. In this paper, we explore strategies for choosing the temporal and spatial discretizations of Euler's method for reachable set computation in a non-uniform way to improve the performance of the method.
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We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification in change point regressions, where the signal can be piecewise polynomial of arbitrary but fixed degree. That is we seek disjoint intervals which, uniformly at a given confidence level, must each contain a change point location. We propose a procedure based on performing local tests at a number of scales and locations on a sparse grid, which adapts to the choice of grid in the sense that by choosing a sparser grid one explicitly pays a lower price for multiple testing. The procedure is fast as its computational complexity is always of the order $\mathcal{O} (n \log (n))$ where $n$ is the length of the data, and optimal in the sense that under certain mild conditions every change point is detected with high probability and the widths of the intervals returned match the mini-max localisation rates for the associated change point problem up to log factors. A detailed simulation study shows our procedure is competitive against state of the art algorithms for similar problems. Our procedure is implemented in the R package ChangePointInference which is available via //github.com/gaviosha/ChangePointInference.
We present an efficient matrix-free point spread function (PSF) method for approximating operators that have locally supported non-negative integral kernels. The method computes impulse responses of the operator at scattered points, and interpolates these impulse responses to approximate integral kernel entries. Impulse responses are computed by applying the operator to Dirac comb batches of point sources, which are chosen by solving an ellipsoid packing problem. Evaluation of kernel entries allows us to construct a hierarchical matrix (H-matrix) approximation of the operator. Further matrix computations are performed with H-matrix methods. We use the method to build preconditioners for the Hessian operator in two inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs): inversion for the basal friction coefficient in an ice sheet flow problem and for the initial condition in an advective-diffusive transport problem. While for many ill-posed inverse problems the Hessian of the data misfit term exhibits a low rank structure, and hence a low rank approximation is suitable, for many problems of practical interest the numerical rank of the Hessian is still large. But Hessian impulse responses typically become more local as the numerical rank increases, which benefits the PSF method. Numerical results reveal that the PSF preconditioner clusters the spectrum of the preconditioned Hessian near one, yielding roughly 5x-10x reductions in the required number of PDE solves, as compared to regularization preconditioning and no preconditioning. We also present a numerical study for the influence of various parameters (that control the shape of the impulse responses) on the effectiveness of the advection-diffusion Hessian approximation. The results show that the PSF-based preconditioners are able to form good approximations of high-rank Hessians using a small number of operator applications.
Many stochastic processes in the physical and biological sciences can be modelled using Brownian dynamics with multiplicative noise. However, numerical integrators for these processes can lose accuracy or even fail to converge when the diffusion term is configuration-dependent. One remedy is to construct a transform to a constant-diffusion process and sample the transformed process instead. In this work, we explain how coordinate-based and time-rescaling-based transforms can be used either individually or in combination to map a general class of variable-diffusion Brownian motion processes into constant-diffusion ones. The transforms are invertible, thus allowing recovery of the original dynamics. We motivate our methodology using examples in one dimension before then considering multivariate diffusion processes. We illustrate the benefits of the transforms through numerical simulations, demonstrating how the right combination of integrator and transform can improve computational efficiency and the order of convergence to the invariant distribution. Notably, the transforms that we derive are applicable to a class of multibody, anisotropic Stokes-Einstein diffusion that has applications in biophysical modelling.
This paper examines the approximation of log-determinant for large-scale symmetric positive definite matrices. Inspired by the variance reduction technique, we split the approximation of $\log\det(A)$ into two parts. The first to compute is the trace of the projection of $\log(A)$ onto a suboptimal subspace, while the second is the trace of the projection on the corresponding orthogonal complementary space. For these two approximations, the stochastic Lanczos quadrature method is used. Furthermore, in the construction of the suboptimal subspace, we utilize a projection-cost-preserving sketch to bound the size of the Gaussian random matrix and the dimension of the suboptimal subspace. We provide a rigorous error analysis for our proposed method and explicit lower bounds for its design parameters, offering guidance for practitioners. We conduct numerical experiments to demonstrate our method's effectiveness and illustrate the quality of the derived bounds.
The paper establishes the strong convergence rates of a spatio-temporal full discretization of the stochastic wave equation with nonlinear damping in dimension one and two. We discretize the SPDE by applying a spectral Galerkin method in space and a modified implicit exponential Euler scheme in time. The presence of the super-linearly growing damping in the underlying model brings challenges into the error analysis. To address these difficulties, we first achieve upper mean-square error bounds, and then obtain mean-square convergence rates of the considered numerical solution. This is done without requiring the moment bounds of the full approximations. The main result shows that, in dimension one, the scheme admits a convergence rate of order $\tfrac12$ in space and order $1$ in time. In dimension two, the error analysis is more subtle and can be done at the expense of an order reduction due to an infinitesimal factor. Numerical experiments are performed and confirm our theoretical findings.
Rotor walks are cellular automata that determine deterministic traversals of particles in a directed multigraph using simple local rules, yet they can generate complex behaviors. Furthermore, these trajectories exhibit statistical properties similar to random walks. In this study, we investigate a generalized version of the reachability problem known as ARRIVAL in Path Multigraphs, which involves predicting the number of particles that will reach designated target vertices. We show that this problem is in NP and co-NP in the general case. However, we exhibit algebraic invariants for Path Multigraphs that allow us to solve the problem efficiently, even for an exponential configuration of particles. These invariants are based on harmonic functions and are connected to the decomposition of integers in rational bases.
Synthetic time series are often used in practical applications to augment the historical time series dataset for better performance of machine learning algorithms, amplify the occurrence of rare events, and also create counterfactual scenarios described by the time series. Distributional-similarity (which we refer to as realism) as well as the satisfaction of certain numerical constraints are common requirements in counterfactual time series scenario generation requests. For instance, the US Federal Reserve publishes synthetic market stress scenarios given by the constrained time series for financial institutions to assess their performance in hypothetical recessions. Existing approaches for generating constrained time series usually penalize training loss to enforce constraints, and reject non-conforming samples. However, these approaches would require re-training if we change constraints, and rejection sampling can be computationally expensive, or impractical for complex constraints. In this paper, we propose a novel set of methods to tackle the constrained time series generation problem and provide efficient sampling while ensuring the realism of generated time series. In particular, we frame the problem using a constrained optimization framework and then we propose a set of generative methods including ``GuidedDiffTime'', a guided diffusion model to generate realistic time series. Empirically, we evaluate our work on several datasets for financial and energy data, where incorporating constraints is critical. We show that our approaches outperform existing work both qualitatively and quantitatively. Most importantly, we show that our ``GuidedDiffTime'' model is the only solution where re-training is not necessary for new constraints, resulting in a significant carbon footprint reduction.
Mutual coherence is a measure of similarity between two opinions. Although the notion comes from philosophy, it is essential for a wide range of technologies, e.g., the Wahl-O-Mat system. In Germany, this system helps voters to find candidates that are the closest to their political preferences. The exact computation of mutual coherence is highly time-consuming due to the iteration over all subsets of an opinion. Moreover, for every subset, an instance of the SAT model counting problem has to be solved which is known to be a hard problem in computer science. This work is the first study to accelerate this computation. We model the distribution of the so-called confirmation values as a mixture of three Gaussians and present efficient heuristics to estimate its model parameters. The mutual coherence is then approximated with the expected value of the distribution. Some of the presented algorithms are fully polynomial-time, others only require solving a small number of instances of the SAT model counting problem. The average squared error of our best algorithm lies below 0.0035 which is insignificant if the efficiency is taken into account. Furthermore, the accuracy is precise enough to be used in Wahl-O-Mat-like systems.
Perception systems operate as a subcomponent of the general autonomy stack, and perception system designers often need to optimize performance characteristics while maintaining safety with respect to the overall closed-loop system. For this reason, it is useful to distill high-level safety requirements into component-level requirements on the perception system. In this work, we focus on efficiently determining sets of safe perception system performance characteristics given a black-box simulator of the fully-integrated, closed-loop system. We combine the advantages of common black-box estimation techniques such as Gaussian processes and threshold bandits to develop a new estimation method, which we call smoothing bandits. We demonstrate our method on a vision-based aircraft collision avoidance problem and show improvements in terms of both accuracy and efficiency over the Gaussian process and threshold bandit baselines.
Games and simulators can be a valuable platform to execute complex multi-agent, multiplayer, imperfect information scenarios with significant parallels to military applications: multiple participants manage resources and make decisions that command assets to secure specific areas of a map or neutralize opposing forces. These characteristics have attracted the artificial intelligence (AI) community by supporting development of algorithms with complex benchmarks and the capability to rapidly iterate over new ideas. The success of artificial intelligence algorithms in real-time strategy games such as StarCraft II have also attracted the attention of the military research community aiming to explore similar techniques in military counterpart scenarios. Aiming to bridge the connection between games and military applications, this work discusses past and current efforts on how games and simulators, together with the artificial intelligence algorithms, have been adapted to simulate certain aspects of military missions and how they might impact the future battlefield. This paper also investigates how advances in virtual reality and visual augmentation systems open new possibilities in human interfaces with gaming platforms and their military parallels.
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