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Efficient contact tracing and isolation is an effective strategy to control epidemics. It was used effectively during the Ebola epidemic and successfully implemented in several parts of the world during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An important consideration in contact tracing is the budget on the number of individuals asked to quarantine -- the budget is limited for socioeconomic reasons. In this paper, we present a Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework to formulate the problem of using contact tracing to reduce the size of an outbreak while asking a limited number of people to quarantine. We formulate each step of the MDP as a combinatorial problem, MinExposed, which we demonstrate is NP-Hard; as a result, we develop an LP-based approximation algorithm. Though this algorithm directly solves MinExposed, it is often impractical in the real world due to information constraints. To this end, we develop a greedy approach based on insights from the analysis of the previous algorithm, which we show is more interpretable. A key feature of the greedy algorithm is that it does not need complete information of the underlying social contact network. This makes the heuristic implementable in practice and is an important consideration. Finally, we carry out experiments on simulations of the MDP run on real-world networks, and show how the algorithms can help in bending the epidemic curve while limiting the number of isolated individuals. Our experimental results demonstrate that the greedy algorithm and its variants are especially effective, robust, and practical in a variety of realistic scenarios, such as when the contact graph and specific transmission probabilities are not known. All code can be found in our GitHub repository: //github.com/gzli929/ContactTracing.

We develop an \textit{a posteriori} error analysis for the time of the first occurrence of an event, specifically, the time at which a functional of the solution to a partial differential equation (PDE) first achieves a threshold value on a given time interval. This novel quantity of interest (QoI) differs from classical QoIs which are modeled as bounded linear (or nonlinear) functionals. Taylor's theorem and an adjoint-based \textit{a posteriori} analysis is used to derive computable and accurate error estimates for semi-linear parabolic and hyperbolic PDEs. The accuracy of the error estimates is demonstrated through numerical solutions of the one-dimensional heat equation and linearized shallow water equations (SWE), representing parabolic and hyperbolic cases, respectively.

In this article, we describe and propose methods to derive \textit{p}-values and sets of confidence intervals with strong control of the family-wise error rates and coverage for tests of parameters from multiple generalised linear mixed models. We examine in particular analysis of a cluster randomised trial with multiple outcomes. While the need for corrections for multiple testing is debated, the justification for doing so is that, without correction, the probability of rejecting at least one of a set of null hypotheses is greater than the nominal rate of any single test, and hence the coverage of a confidence set is lower than the nominal rate of any single interval. There are few methods \textit{p}-value corrections for GLMMs and no efficient methods for deriving confidence intervals, limiting their application in this setting. We adapt the Bonferroni and Holm methods, and the randomisation-test approach of Romano \& Wolf (2005) to a generalised linear model framework. A search procedure for confidence interval limits using randomisation tests is developed to produce a set of confidence intervals under each method of correction. We show that the Romano-Wolf type procedure has nominal error rates and coverage under non-independent correlation structures in a simulation-based study, but the other methods only have nominal rates when outcomes are independent. We also compare results from the analysis of a real-world trial.

In warehouses, order picking is known to be the most labor-intensive and costly task in which the employees account for a large part of the warehouse performance. Hence, many approaches exist, that optimize the order picking process based on diverse economic criteria. However, most of these approaches focus on a single economic objective at once and disregard ergonomic criteria in their optimization. Further, the influence of the placement of the items to be picked is underestimated and accordingly, too little attention is paid to the interdependence of these two problems. In this work, we aim at optimizing the storage assignment and the order picking problem within mezzanine warehouse with regards to their reciprocal influence. We propose a customized version of the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) for optimizing the storage assignment problem as well as an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm for optimizing the order picking problem. Both algorithms incorporate multiple economic and ergonomic constraints simultaneously. Furthermore, the algorithms incorporate knowledge about the interdependence between both problems, aiming to improve the overall warehouse performance. Our evaluation results show that our proposed algorithms return better storage assignments and order pick routes compared to commonly used techniques for the following quality indicators for comparing Pareto fronts: Coverage, Generational Distance, Euclidian Distance, Pareto Front Size, and Inverted Generational Distance. Additionally, the evaluation regarding the interaction of both algorithms shows a better performance when combining both proposed algorithms.

We study the problem of learning in the stochastic shortest path (SSP) setting, where an agent seeks to minimize the expected cost accumulated before reaching a goal state. We design a novel model-based algorithm EB-SSP that carefully skews the empirical transitions and perturbs the empirical costs with an exploration bonus to guarantee both optimism and convergence of the associated value iteration scheme. We prove that EB-SSP achieves the minimax regret rate $\widetilde{O}(B_{\star} \sqrt{S A K})$, where $K$ is the number of episodes, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions and $B_{\star}$ bounds the expected cumulative cost of the optimal policy from any state, thus closing the gap with the lower bound. Interestingly, EB-SSP obtains this result while being parameter-free, i.e., it does not require any prior knowledge of $B_{\star}$, nor of $T_{\star}$ which bounds the expected time-to-goal of the optimal policy from any state. Furthermore, we illustrate various cases (e.g., positive costs, or general costs when an order-accurate estimate of $T_{\star}$ is available) where the regret only contains a logarithmic dependence on $T_{\star}$, thus yielding the first horizon-free regret bound beyond the finite-horizon MDP setting.

We consider the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning and we show that an agent imbued with a risk-seeking utility function is able to explore efficiently, as measured by regret. The parameter that controls how risk-seeking the agent is can be optimized exactly, or annealed according to a schedule. We call the resulting algorithm K-learning and show that the corresponding K-values are optimistic for the expected Q-values at each state-action pair. The K-values induce a natural Boltzmann exploration policy for which the `temperature' parameter is equal to the risk-seeking parameter. This policy achieves an expected regret bound of $\tilde O(L^{3/2} \sqrt{S A T})$, where $L$ is the time horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the total number of elapsed time-steps. This bound is only a factor of $L$ larger than the established lower bound. K-learning can be interpreted as mirror descent in the policy space, and it is similar to other well-known methods in the literature, including Q-learning, soft-Q-learning, and maximum entropy policy gradient, and is closely related to optimism and count based exploration methods. K-learning is simple to implement, as it only requires adding a bonus to the reward at each state-action and then solving a Bellman equation. We conclude with a numerical example demonstrating that K-learning is competitive with other state-of-the-art algorithms in practice.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.

The Normalized Cut (NCut) objective function, widely used in data clustering and image segmentation, quantifies the cost of graph partitioning in a way that biases clusters or segments that are balanced towards having lower values than unbalanced partitionings. However, this bias is so strong that it avoids any singleton partitions, even when vertices are very weakly connected to the rest of the graph. Motivated by the B\"uhler-Hein family of balanced cut costs, we propose the family of Compassionately Conservative Balanced (CCB) Cut costs, which are indexed by a parameter that can be used to strike a compromise between the desire to avoid too many singleton partitions and the notion that all partitions should be balanced. We show that CCB-Cut minimization can be relaxed into an orthogonally constrained $\ell_{\tau}$-minimization problem that coincides with the problem of computing Piecewise Flat Embeddings (PFE) for one particular index value, and we present an algorithm for solving the relaxed problem by iteratively minimizing a sequence of reweighted Rayleigh quotients (IRRQ). Using images from the BSDS500 database, we show that image segmentation based on CCB-Cut minimization provides better accuracy with respect to ground truth and greater variability in region size than NCut-based image segmentation.

We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.