Adaptive designs(AD) are a broad class of trial designs that allow preplanned modifications based on patient data providing improved efficiency and flexibility. However, a delay in observing the primary outcome variable can harm this added efficiency. In this paper, we aim to ascertain the size of such outcome delay that results in the realised efficiency gains of ADs becoming negligible compared to classical fixed sample RCTs. We measure the impact of delay by developing formulae for the no. of overruns in 2 arm GSDs with normal data, assuming different recruitment models. The efficiency of a GSD is usually measured in terms of the expected sample size (ESS), with GSDs generally reducing the ESS compared to a standard RCT. Our formulae measures the efficiency gain from a GSD in terms of ESS reduction that is lost due to delay. We assess whether careful choice of design (e.g., altering the spacing of the IAs) can help recover the benefits of GSDs in presence of delay. We also analyse the efficiency of GSDs with respect to time to complete the trial. Comparing the expected efficiency gains, with and without consideration of delay, it is evident GSDs suffer considerable losses due to delay. Even a small delay can have a significant impact on the trial's efficiency. In contrast, even in the presence of substantial delay, a GSD will have a smaller expected time to trial completion in comparison to a simple RCT. Although the no. of stages have little influence on the efficiency losses, the timing of IAs can impact the efficiency of a GSDs with delay. Particularly, for unequally spaced IAs, pushing IAs towards latter end of the trial can be harmful for the design with delay.
相關內容
Human interactions create social networks forming the backbone of societies. Individuals adjust their opinions by exchanging information through social interactions. Two recurrent questions are whether social structures promote opinion polarisation or consensus in societies and whether polarisation can be avoided, particularly on social media. In this paper, we hypothesise that not only network structure but also the timings of social interactions regulate the emergence of opinion clusters. We devise a temporal version of the Deffuant opinion model where pairwise interactions follow temporal patterns and show that burstiness alone is sufficient to refrain from consensus and polarisation by promoting the reinforcement of local opinions. Individuals self-organise into a multi-partisan society due to network clustering, but the diversity of opinion clusters further increases with burstiness, particularly when individuals have low tolerance and prefer to adjust to similar peers. The emergent opinion landscape is well-balanced regarding clusters' size, with a small fraction of individuals converging to extreme opinions. We thus argue that polarisation is more likely to emerge in social media than offline social networks because of the relatively low social clustering observed online. Counter-intuitively, strengthening online social networks by increasing social redundancy may be a venue to reduce polarisation and promote opinion diversity.
The majority of fault-tolerant distributed algorithms are designed assuming a nominal corruption model, in which at most a fraction $f_n$ of parties can be corrupted by the adversary. However, due to the infamous Sybil attack, nominal models are not sufficient to express the trust assumptions in open (i.e., permissionless) settings. Instead, permissionless systems typically operate in a weighted model, where each participant is associated with a weight and the adversary can corrupt a set of parties holding at most a fraction $f_w$ of total weight. In this paper, we suggest a simple way to transform a large class of protocols designed for the nominal model into the weighted model. To this end, we formalize and solve three novel optimization problems, which we collectively call the weight reduction problems, that allow us to map large real weights into small integer weights while preserving the properties necessary for the correctness of the protocols. In all cases, we manage to keep the sum of the integer weights to be at most linear in the number of parties, resulting in extremely efficient protocols for the weighted model. Moreover, we demonstrate that, on weight distributions that emerge in practice, the sum of the integer weights tends to be far from the theoretical worst-case and, often even smaller than the number of participants. While, for some protocols, our transformation requires an arbitrarily small reduction in resilience (i.e., $f_w = f_n - \epsilon$), surprisingly, for many important problems we manage to obtain weighted solutions with the same resilience ($f_w = f_n$) as nominal ones. Notable examples include asynchronous consensus, verifiable secret sharing, erasure-coded distributed storage and broadcast protocols.
Neural abstractions have been recently introduced as formal approximations of complex, nonlinear dynamical models. They comprise a neural ODE and a certified upper bound on the error between the abstract neural network and the concrete dynamical model. So far neural abstractions have exclusively been obtained as neural networks consisting entirely of $ReLU$ activation functions, resulting in neural ODE models that have piecewise affine dynamics, and which can be equivalently interpreted as linear hybrid automata. In this work, we observe that the utility of an abstraction depends on its use: some scenarios might require coarse abstractions that are easier to analyse, whereas others might require more complex, refined abstractions. We therefore consider neural abstractions of alternative shapes, namely either piecewise constant or nonlinear non-polynomial (specifically, obtained via sigmoidal activations). We employ formal inductive synthesis procedures to generate neural abstractions that result in dynamical models with these semantics. Empirically, we demonstrate the trade-off that these different neural abstraction templates have vis-a-vis their precision and synthesis time, as well as the time required for their safety verification (done via reachability computation). We improve existing synthesis techniques to enable abstraction of higher-dimensional models, and additionally discuss the abstraction of complex neural ODEs to improve the efficiency of reachability analysis for these models.
In this paper, we propose a method for estimating model parameters using Small-Angle Scattering (SAS) data based on the Bayesian inference. Conventional SAS data analyses involve processes of manual parameter adjustment by analysts or optimization using gradient methods. These analysis processes tend to involve heuristic approaches and may lead to local solutions.Furthermore, it is difficult to evaluate the reliability of the results obtained by conventional analysis methods. Our method solves these problems by estimating model parameters as probability distributions from SAS data using the framework of the Bayesian inference. We evaluate the performance of our method through numerical experiments using artificial data of representative measurement target models.From the results of the numerical experiments, we show that our method provides not only high accuracy and reliability of estimation, but also perspectives on the transition point of estimability with respect to the measurement time and the lower bound of the angular domain of the measured data.
The optimal branch number of MDS matrices makes them a preferred choice for designing diffusion layers in many block ciphers and hash functions. However, in lightweight cryptography, Near-MDS (NMDS) matrices with sub-optimal branch numbers offer a better balance between security and efficiency as a diffusion layer, compared to MDS matrices. In this paper, we study NMDS matrices, exploring their construction in both recursive and nonrecursive settings. We provide several theoretical results and explore the hardware efficiency of the construction of NMDS matrices. Additionally, we make comparisons between the results of NMDS and MDS matrices whenever possible. For the recursive approach, we study the DLS matrices and provide some theoretical results on their use. Some of the results are used to restrict the search space of the DLS matrices. We also show that over a field of characteristic 2, any sparse matrix of order $n\geq 4$ with fixed XOR value of 1 cannot be an NMDS when raised to a power of $k\leq n$. Following that, we use the generalized DLS (GDLS) matrices to provide some lightweight recursive NMDS matrices of several orders that perform better than the existing matrices in terms of hardware cost or the number of iterations. For the nonrecursive construction of NMDS matrices, we study various structures, such as circulant and left-circulant matrices, and their generalizations: Toeplitz and Hankel matrices. In addition, we prove that Toeplitz matrices of order $n>4$ cannot be simultaneously NMDS and involutory over a field of characteristic 2. Finally, we use GDLS matrices to provide some lightweight NMDS matrices that can be computed in one clock cycle. The proposed nonrecursive NMDS matrices of orders 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 can be implemented with 24, 50, 65, 96, and 108 XORs over $\mathbb{F}_{2^4}$, respectively.
This paper studies the efficient estimation of a large class of treatment effect parameters that arise in the analysis of experiments. Here, efficiency is understood to be with respect to a broad class of treatment assignment schemes for which the marginal probability that any unit is assigned to treatment equals a pre-specified value, e.g., one half. Importantly, we do not require that treatment status is assigned in an i.i.d. fashion, thereby accommodating complicated treatment assignment schemes that are used in practice, such as stratified block randomization and matched pairs. The class of parameters considered are those that can be expressed as the solution to a restriction on the expectation of a known function of the observed data, including possibly the pre-specified value for the marginal probability of treatment assignment. We show that this class of parameters includes, among other things, average treatment effects, quantile treatment effects, local average treatment effects as well as the counterparts to these quantities in experiments in which the unit is itself a cluster. In this setting, we establish two results. First, we derive a lower bound on the asymptotic variance of estimators of the parameter of interest in the form of a convolution theorem. Second, we show that the n\"aive method of moments estimator achieves this bound on the asymptotic variance quite generally if treatment is assigned using a "finely stratified" design. By a "finely stratified" design, we mean experiments in which units are divided into groups of a fixed size and a proportion within each group is assigned to treatment uniformly at random so that it respects the restriction on the marginal probability of treatment assignment. In this sense, "finely stratified" experiments lead to efficient estimators of treatment effect parameters "by design" rather than through ex post covariate adjustment.
In recent years, many NLP studies have focused solely on performance improvement. In this work, we focus on the linguistic and scientific aspects of NLP. We use the task of generating referring expressions in context (REG-in-context) as a case study and start our analysis from GREC, a comprehensive set of shared tasks in English that addressed this topic over a decade ago. We ask what the performance of models would be if we assessed them (1) on more realistic datasets, and (2) using more advanced methods. We test the models using different evaluation metrics and feature selection experiments. We conclude that GREC can no longer be regarded as offering a reliable assessment of models' ability to mimic human reference production, because the results are highly impacted by the choice of corpus and evaluation metrics. Our results also suggest that pre-trained language models are less dependent on the choice of corpus than classic Machine Learning models, and therefore make more robust class predictions.
The Weighted Path Order of Yamada is a powerful technique for proving termination. It is also supported by CeTA, a certifier for checking untrusted termination proofs. To be more precise, CeTA contains a verified function that computes for two terms whether one of them is larger than the other for a given WPO, i.e., where all parameters of the WPO have been fixed. The problem of this verified function is its exponential runtime in the worst case. Therefore, in this work we develop a polynomial time implementation of WPO that is based on memoization. It also improves upon an earlier verified implementation of the Recursive Path Order: the RPO-implementation uses full terms as keys for the memory, a design which simplified the soundness proofs, but has some runtime overhead. In this work, keys are just numbers, so that the lookup in the memory is faster. Although trivial on paper, this change introduces some challenges for the verification task.
We present a scheme for finding all roots of an analytic function in a square domain in the complex plane. The scheme can be viewed as a generalization of the classical approach to finding roots of a function on the real line, by first approximating it by a polynomial in the Chebyshev basis, followed by diagonalizing the so-called ''colleague matrices''. Our extension of the classical approach is based on several observations that enable the construction of polynomial bases in compact domains that satisfy three-term recurrences and are reasonably well-conditioned. This class of polynomial bases gives rise to ''generalized colleague matrices'', whose eigenvalues are roots of functions expressed in these bases. In this paper, we also introduce a special-purpose QR algorithm for finding the eigenvalues of generalized colleague matrices, which is a straightforward extension of the recently introduced componentwise stable QR algorithm for the classical cases (See [Serkh]). The performance of the schemes is illustrated with several numerical examples.
FSLens: A Visual Analytics Approach to Evaluating and Optimizing the Spatial Layout of Fire Stations
The provision of fire services plays a vital role in ensuring the safety of residents' lives and property. The spatial layout of fire stations is closely linked to the efficiency of fire rescue operations. Traditional approaches have primarily relied on mathematical planning models to generate appropriate layouts by summarizing relevant evaluation criteria. However, this optimization process presents significant challenges due to the extensive decision space, inherent conflicts among criteria, and decision-makers' preferences. To address these challenges, we propose FSLens, an interactive visual analytics system that enables in-depth evaluation and rational optimization of fire station layout. Our approach integrates fire records and correlation features to reveal fire occurrence patterns and influencing factors using spatiotemporal sequence forecasting. We design an interactive visualization method to explore areas within the city that are potentially under-resourced for fire service based on the fire distribution and existing fire station layout. Moreover, we develop a collaborative human-computer multi-criteria decision model that generates multiple candidate solutions for optimizing firefighting resources within these areas. We simulate and compare the impact of different solutions on the original layout through well-designed visualizations, providing decision-makers with the most satisfactory solution. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through one case study with real-world datasets. The feedback from domain experts indicates that our system helps them to better identify and improve potential gaps in the current fire station layout.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191