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This article reports ongoing investigations into phonetic change of dialect groups in the northern Netherlandic language area, particularly the Frisian and Low Saxon dialect groups, which are known to differ in vitality. To achieve this, we combine existing phonetically transcribed corpora with dialectometric approaches that allow us to quantify change among older male dialect speakers in a real-time framework. A multidimensional variant of the Levenshtein distance, combined with methods that induce realistic phonetic distances between transcriptions, is used to estimate how much dialect groups have changed between 1990 and 2010, and whether they changed towards Standard Dutch or away from it. Our analyses indicate that language change is a slow process in this geographical area. Moreover, the Frisian and Groningen dialect groups seem to be most stable, while the other Low Saxon varieties (excluding the Groningen dialect group) were shown to be most prone to change. We offer possible explanations for our findings, while we discuss shortcomings of the data and approach in detail, as well as desiderata for future research.

This article develops new closed-form variance expressions for power analyses for commonly used difference-in-differences (DID) and comparative interrupted time series (CITS) panel data estimators. The main contribution is to incorporate variation in treatment timing into the analysis. The power formulas also account for other key design features that arise in practice: autocorrelated errors, unequal measurement intervals, and clustering due to the unit of treatment assignment. We consider power formulas for both cross-sectional and longitudinal models and allow for covariates. An illustrative power analysis provides guidance on appropriate sample sizes. The key finding is that accounting for treatment timing increases required sample sizes. Further, DID estimators have considerably more power than standard CITS and ITS estimators. An available Shiny R dashboard performs the sample size calculations for the considered estimators.

The Possibilistic Fuzzy Local Information C-Means (PFLICM) method is presented as a technique to segment side-look synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) imagery into distinct regions of the sea-floor. In this work, we investigate and present the results of an automated feature selection approach for SAS image segmentation. The chosen features and resulting segmentation from the image will be assessed based on a select quantitative clustering validity criterion and the subset of the features that reach a desired threshold will be used for the segmentation process.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are predominantly evaluated by comparing their relative performance on a large suite of tasks. Most published results on deep RL benchmarks compare point estimates of aggregate performance such as mean and median scores across tasks, ignoring the statistical uncertainty implied by the use of a finite number of training runs. Beginning with the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), the shift towards computationally-demanding benchmarks has led to the practice of evaluating only a small number of runs per task, exacerbating the statistical uncertainty in point estimates. In this paper, we argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field. We illustrate this point using a case study on the Atari 100k benchmark, where we find substantial discrepancies between conclusions drawn from point estimates alone versus a more thorough statistical analysis. With the aim of increasing the field's confidence in reported results with a handful of runs, we advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results, as well as present more robust and efficient aggregate metrics, such as interquartile mean scores, to achieve small uncertainty in results. Using such statistical tools, we scrutinize performance evaluations of existing algorithms on other widely used RL benchmarks including the ALE, Procgen, and the DeepMind Control Suite, again revealing discrepancies in prior comparisons. Our findings call for a change in how we evaluate performance in deep RL, for which we present a more rigorous evaluation methodology, accompanied with an open-source library rliable, to prevent unreliable results from stagnating the field.

Deep neural networks can be roughly divided into deterministic neural networks and stochastic neural networks.The former is usually trained to achieve a mapping from input space to output space via maximum likelihood estimation for the weights, which leads to deterministic predictions during testing. In this way, a specific weights set is estimated while ignoring any uncertainty that may occur in the proper weight space. The latter introduces randomness into the framework, either by assuming a prior distribution over model parameters (i.e. Bayesian Neural Networks) or including latent variables (i.e. generative models) to explore the contribution of latent variables for model predictions, leading to stochastic predictions during testing. Different from the former that achieves point estimation, the latter aims to estimate the prediction distribution, making it possible to estimate uncertainty, representing model ignorance about its predictions. We claim that conventional deterministic neural network based dense prediction tasks are prone to overfitting, leading to over-confident predictions, which is undesirable for decision making. In this paper, we investigate stochastic neural networks and uncertainty estimation techniques to achieve both accurate deterministic prediction and reliable uncertainty estimation. Specifically, we work on two types of uncertainty estimations solutions, namely ensemble based methods and generative model based methods, and explain their pros and cons while using them in fully/semi/weakly-supervised framework. Due to the close connection between uncertainty estimation and model calibration, we also introduce how uncertainty estimation can be used for deep model calibration to achieve well-calibrated models, namely dense model calibration. Code and data are available at //github.com/JingZhang617/UncertaintyEstimation.

Training datasets for machine learning often have some form of missingness. For example, to learn a model for deciding whom to give a loan, the available training data includes individuals who were given a loan in the past, but not those who were not. This missingness, if ignored, nullifies any fairness guarantee of the training procedure when the model is deployed. Using causal graphs, we characterize the missingness mechanisms in different real-world scenarios. We show conditions under which various distributions, used in popular fairness algorithms, can or can not be recovered from the training data. Our theoretical results imply that many of these algorithms can not guarantee fairness in practice. Modeling missingness also helps to identify correct design principles for fair algorithms. For example, in multi-stage settings where decisions are made in multiple screening rounds, we use our framework to derive the minimal distributions required to design a fair algorithm. Our proposed algorithm decentralizes the decision-making process and still achieves similar performance to the optimal algorithm that requires centralization and non-recoverable distributions.

Clustering is one of the most fundamental and wide-spread techniques in exploratory data analysis. Yet, the basic approach to clustering has not really changed: a practitioner hand-picks a task-specific clustering loss to optimize and fit the given data to reveal the underlying cluster structure. Some types of losses---such as k-means, or its non-linear version: kernelized k-means (centroid based), and DBSCAN (density based)---are popular choices due to their good empirical performance on a range of applications. Although every so often the clustering output using these standard losses fails to reveal the underlying structure, and the practitioner has to custom-design their own variation. In this work we take an intrinsically different approach to clustering: rather than fitting a dataset to a specific clustering loss, we train a recurrent model that learns how to cluster. The model uses as training pairs examples of datasets (as input) and its corresponding cluster identities (as output). By providing multiple types of training datasets as inputs, our model has the ability to generalize well on unseen datasets (new clustering tasks). Our experiments reveal that by training on simple synthetically generated datasets or on existing real datasets, we can achieve better clustering performance on unseen real-world datasets when compared with standard benchmark clustering techniques. Our meta clustering model works well even for small datasets where the usual deep learning models tend to perform worse.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.

Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired density represented by a set of samples. Our approach considers an existing Monte Carlo rendering algorithm as a black box. During a scene-dependent training phase, we learn to generate samples with a desired density in the primary sample space of the rendering algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation. We leverage a recent neural network architecture that was designed to represent real-valued non-volume preserving ('Real NVP') transformations in high dimensional spaces. We use Real NVP to non-linearly warp primary sample space and obtain desired densities. In addition, Real NVP efficiently computes the determinant of the Jacobian of the warp, which is required to implement the change of integration variables implied by the warp. A main advantage of our approach is that it is agnostic of underlying light transport effects, and can be combined with many existing rendering techniques by treating them as a black box. We show that our approach leads to effective variance reduction in several practical scenarios.

This paper addresses the problem of estimating and tracking human body keypoints in complex, multi-person video. We propose an extremely lightweight yet highly effective approach that builds upon the latest advancements in human detection and video understanding. Our method operates in two-stages: keypoint estimation in frames or short clips, followed by lightweight tracking to generate keypoint predictions linked over the entire video. For frame-level pose estimation we experiment with Mask R-CNN, as well as our own proposed 3D extension of this model, which leverages temporal information over small clips to generate more robust frame predictions. We conduct extensive ablative experiments on the newly released multi-person video pose estimation benchmark, PoseTrack, to validate various design choices of our model. Our approach achieves an accuracy of 55.2% on the validation and 51.8% on the test set using the Multi-Object Tracking Accuracy (MOTA) metric, and achieves state of the art performance on the ICCV 2017 PoseTrack keypoint tracking challenge.