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The monotone minimal perfect hash function (MMPHF) problem is the following indexing problem. Given a set $S= \{s_1,\ldots,s_n\}$ of $n$ distinct keys from a universe $U$ of size $u$, create a data structure $DS$ that answers the following query: \[ RankOp(q) = \text{rank of } q \text{ in } S \text{ for all } q\in S ~\text{ and arbitrary answer otherwise.} \] Solutions to the MMPHF problem are in widespread use in both theory and practice. The best upper bound known for the problem encodes $DS$ in $O(n\log\log\log u)$ bits and performs queries in $O(\log u)$ time. It has been an open problem to either improve the space upper bound or to show that this somewhat odd looking bound is tight. In this paper, we show the latter: specifically that any data structure (deterministic or randomized) for monotone minimal perfect hashing of any collection of $n$ elements from a universe of size $u$ requires $\Omega(n \cdot \log\log\log{u})$ expected bits to answer every query correctly. We achieve our lower bound by defining a graph $\mathbf{G}$ where the nodes are the possible ${u \choose n}$ inputs and where two nodes are adjacent if they cannot share the same $DS$. The size of $DS$ is then lower bounded by the log of the chromatic number of $\mathbf{G}$. Finally, we show that the fractional chromatic number (and hence the chromatic number) of $\mathbf{G}$ is lower bounded by $2^{\Omega(n \log\log\log u)}$.

Recent work has shown that finite mixture models with $m$ components are identifiable, while making no assumptions on the mixture components, so long as one has access to groups of samples of size $2m-1$ which are known to come from the same mixture component. In this work we generalize that result and show that, if every subset of $k$ mixture components of a mixture model are linearly independent, then that mixture model is identifiable with only $(2m-1)/(k-1)$ samples per group. We further show that this value cannot be improved. We prove an analogous result for a stronger form of identifiability known as "determinedness" along with a corresponding lower bound. This independence assumption almost surely holds if mixture components are chosen randomly from a $k$-dimensional space. We describe some implications of our results for multinomial mixture models and topic modeling.

Optimal execution is a sequential decision-making problem for cost-saving in algorithmic trading. Studies have found that reinforcement learning (RL) can help decide the order-splitting sizes. However, a problem remains unsolved: how to place limit orders at appropriate limit prices? The key challenge lies in the "continuous-discrete duality" of the action space. On the one hand, the continuous action space using percentage changes in prices is preferred for generalization. On the other hand, the trader eventually needs to choose limit prices discretely due to the existence of the tick size, which requires specialization for every single stock with different characteristics (e.g., the liquidity and the price range). So we need continuous control for generalization and discrete control for specialization. To this end, we propose a hybrid RL method to combine the advantages of both of them. We first use a continuous control agent to scope an action subset, then deploy a fine-grained agent to choose a specific limit price. Extensive experiments show that our method has higher sample efficiency and better training stability than existing RL algorithms and significantly outperforms previous learning-based methods for order execution.

This work presents a new procedure for obtaining predictive distributions in the context of Gaussian process (GP) modeling, with a relaxation of the interpolation constraints outside some ranges of interest: the mean of the predictive distributions no longer necessarily interpolates the observed values when they are outside ranges of interest, but are simply constrained to remain outside. This method called relaxed Gaussian process (reGP) interpolation provides better predictive distributions in ranges of interest, especially in cases where a stationarity assumption for the GP model is not appropriate. It can be viewed as a goal-oriented method and becomes particularly interesting in Bayesian optimization, for example, for the minimization of an objective function, where good predictive distributions for low function values are important. When the expected improvement criterion and reGP are used for sequentially choosing evaluation points, the convergence of the resulting optimization algorithm is theoretically guaranteed (provided that the function to be optimized lies in the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces attached to the known covariance of the underlying Gaussian process). Experiments indicate that using reGP instead of stationary GP models in Bayesian optimization is beneficial.

When learning disconnected distributions, Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are known to face model misspecification. Indeed, a continuous mapping from a unimodal latent distribution to a disconnected one is impossible, so GANs necessarily generate samples outside of the support of the target distribution. This raises a fundamental question: what is the latent space partition that minimizes the measure of these areas? Building on a recent result of geometric measure theory, we prove that an optimal GANs must structure its latent space as a 'simplicial cluster' - a Voronoi partition where cells are convex cones - when the dimension of the latent space is larger than the number of modes. In this configuration, each Voronoi cell maps to a distinct mode of the data. We derive both an upper and a lower bound on the optimal precision of GANs learning disconnected manifolds. Interestingly, these two bounds have the same order of decrease: $\sqrt{\log m}$, $m$ being the number of modes. Finally, we perform several experiments to exhibit the geometry of the latent space and experimentally show that GANs have a geometry with similar properties to the theoretical one.

While vaccinations continue to be rolled out to curb the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, their verification is becoming a requirement for the re-incorporation of individuals into many social activities or travel. Blockchain technology has been widely proposed to manage vaccination records and their verification in many politically-bound regions. However, the high contagiousness of COVID-19 calls for a global vaccination campaign. Therefore, a blockchain for vaccination management must scale up to support such a campaign and be adaptable to the requirements of different countries. While there have been many proposals of blockchain frameworks that balance the access and immutability of vaccination records, their scalability, a critical feature, has not yet been addressed. In this paper, we propose a scalable and cooperative Global Immunization Information Blockchain-based System (GEOS) that leverages the global interoperability of immunization information systems. We model GEOS and describe its requirements, features, and operation. We analyze the communications and the delays incurred by the national and international consensus processes and blockchain interoperability in GEOS. Such communications are pivotal in enabling global-scale interoperability and access to electronic vaccination records for verification. We show that GEOS ably keeps up with the global vaccination rates of COVID-19 as an example of its scalability.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Clustering is one of the most fundamental and wide-spread techniques in exploratory data analysis. Yet, the basic approach to clustering has not really changed: a practitioner hand-picks a task-specific clustering loss to optimize and fit the given data to reveal the underlying cluster structure. Some types of losses---such as k-means, or its non-linear version: kernelized k-means (centroid based), and DBSCAN (density based)---are popular choices due to their good empirical performance on a range of applications. Although every so often the clustering output using these standard losses fails to reveal the underlying structure, and the practitioner has to custom-design their own variation. In this work we take an intrinsically different approach to clustering: rather than fitting a dataset to a specific clustering loss, we train a recurrent model that learns how to cluster. The model uses as training pairs examples of datasets (as input) and its corresponding cluster identities (as output). By providing multiple types of training datasets as inputs, our model has the ability to generalize well on unseen datasets (new clustering tasks). Our experiments reveal that by training on simple synthetically generated datasets or on existing real datasets, we can achieve better clustering performance on unseen real-world datasets when compared with standard benchmark clustering techniques. Our meta clustering model works well even for small datasets where the usual deep learning models tend to perform worse.