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We consider a network of agents. Associated with each agent are her covariate and outcome. Agents influence each other's outcomes according to a certain connection/influence structure. A subset of the agents participate on a platform, and hence, are observable to it. The rest are not observable to the platform and are called the latent agents. The platform does not know the influence structure of the observable or the latent parts of the network. It only observes the data on past covariates and decisions of the observable agents. Observable agents influence each other both directly and indirectly through the influence they exert on the latent agents. We investigate how the platform can estimate the dependence of the observable agents' outcomes on their covariates, taking the latent agents into account. First, we show that this relationship can be succinctly captured by a matrix and provide an algorithm for estimating it under a suitable approximate sparsity condition using historical data of covariates and outcomes for the observable agents. We also obtain convergence rates for the proposed estimator despite the high dimensionality that allows more agents than observations. Second, we show that the approximate sparsity condition holds under the standard conditions used in the literature. Hence, our results apply to a large class of networks. Finally, we apply our results to two practical settings: targeted advertising and promotional pricing. We show that by using the available historical data with our estimator, it is possible to obtain asymptotically optimal advertising/pricing decisions, despite the presence of latent agents.

A Bayesian multivariate model with a structured covariance matrix for multi-way nested data is proposed. This flexible modeling framework allows for positive and for negative associations among clustered observations, and generalizes the well-known dependence structure implied by random effects. A conjugate shifted-inverse gamma prior is proposed for the covariance parameters which ensures that the covariance matrix remains positive definite under posterior analysis. A numerically efficient Gibbs sampling procedure is defined for balanced nested designs, and is validated using two simulation studies. For a top-layer unbalanced nested design, the procedure requires an additional data augmentation step. The proposed data augmentation procedure facilitates sampling latent variables from (truncated) univariate normal distributions, and avoids numerical computation of the inverse of the structured covariance matrix. The Bayesian multivariate (linear transformation) model is applied to two-way nested interval-censored event times to analyze differences in adverse events between three groups of patients, who were randomly allocated to treatment with different stents (BIO-RESORT). The parameters of the structured covariance matrix represent unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects and are examined to detect differential treatment effects.

In this work, we present a positivity-preserving entropy-based adaptive filtering method for shock capturing in discontinuous spectral element methods. By adapting the filter strength to enforce positivity and a local discrete minimum entropy principle, the resulting approach can robustly resolve strong discontinuities with sub-element resolution, does not require problem-dependent parameter tuning, and can be easily implemented on general unstructured meshes with relatively low computational cost. The efficacy of the approach is shown in numerical experiments on hyperbolic and mixed hyperbolic-parabolic conservation laws such as the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations for problems including extreme shocks, shock-vortex interactions, and complex compressible turbulent flows.

We study the problem of constructing the control driving a controlled differential equation from discrete observations of the response. By restricting the control to the space of piecewise linear paths, we identify the assumptions that ensure uniqueness. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a novel numerical algorithm for the construction of the piecewise linear control, that converges uniformly in time. Uniform convergence is needed for many applications and it is achieved by approaching the problem through the signature representation of the paths, which allows us to work with the whole path simultaneously.

The asymptotic stable region and long-time decay rate of solutions to linear homogeneous Caputo time fractional ordinary differential equations (F-ODEs) are known to be completely determined by the eigenvalues of the coefficient matrix. Very different from the exponential decay of solutions to classical ODEs, solutions of F-ODEs decay only polynomially, leading to the so-called Mittag-Leffler stability, which was already extended to semi-linear F-ODEs with small perturbations. This work is mainly devoted to the qualitative analysis of the long-time behavior of numerical solutions. By applying the singularity analysis of generating functions developed by Flajolet and Odlyzko (SIAM J. Disc. Math. 3 (1990), 216-240), we are able to prove that both $\mathcal{L}$1 scheme and strong $A$-stable fractional linear multistep methods (F-LMMs) can preserve the numerical Mittag-Leffler stability for linear homogeneous F-ODEs exactly as in the continuous case. Through an improved estimate of the discrete fractional resolvent operator, we show that strong $A$-stable F-LMMs are also Mittag-Leffler stable for semi-linear F-ODEs under small perturbations. For the numerical schemes based on $\alpha$-difference approximation to Caputo derivative, we establish the Mittag-Leffler stability for semi-linear problems by making use of properties of the Poisson transformation and the decay rate of the continuous fractional resolvent operator. Numerical experiments are presented for several typical time fractional evolutional equations, including time fractional sub-diffusion equations, fractional linear system and semi-linear F-ODEs. All the numerical results exhibit the typical long-time polynomial decay rate, which is fully consistent with our theoretical predictions.

Numerical solving differential equations with fractional derivatives requires elimination of the singularity which is inherent in the standard definition of fractional derivatives. The method of integration by parts to eliminate this singularity is well known. It allows to solve some equations but increases the order of the equation and sometimes leads to wrong numerical results or instability. We suggest another approach: the elimination of singularity by substitution. It does not increase the order of equation and its numerical implementation provides the opportunity to define fractional derivative as the limit of discretization. We present a sufficient condition for the substitution-generated difference approximation to be well-conditioned. We demonstrate how some equations can be solved using this method with full confidence that the solution is accurate with at least second order of approximation.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have shown an impressive ability to learn complex control policies in high-dimensional environments. However, despite the ever-increasing performance on popular benchmarks such as the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), policies learned by deep RL algorithms often struggle to generalize when evaluated in remarkably similar environments. In this paper, we assess the generalization capabilities of DQN, one of the most traditional deep RL algorithms in the field. We provide evidence suggesting that DQN overspecializes to the training environment. We comprehensively evaluate the impact of traditional regularization methods, $\ell_2$-regularization and dropout, and of reusing the learned representations to improve the generalization capabilities of DQN. We perform this study using different game modes of Atari 2600 games, a recently introduced modification for the ALE which supports slight variations of the Atari 2600 games traditionally used for benchmarking. Despite regularization being largely underutilized in deep RL, we show that it can, in fact, help DQN learn more general features. These features can then be reused and fine-tuned on similar tasks, considerably improving the sample efficiency of DQN.

We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a black-box differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly trade numerical precision for speed. We demonstrate these properties in continuous-depth residual networks and continuous-time latent variable models. We also construct continuous normalizing flows, a generative model that can train by maximum likelihood, without partitioning or ordering the data dimensions. For training, we show how to scalably backpropagate through any ODE solver, without access to its internal operations. This allows end-to-end training of ODEs within larger models.

In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. We perform a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. Apart from that, we illustrate our method on real EEG and MEG data sets. The proposed covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed for accurate dipole localization, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, such as in combined EEG/fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated.