Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator for treatment effects, especially in the case when there are a large number of features in estimation. To make efforts to address the issue, we propose a score-based framework for estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) function in this paper. The framework integrates two components: (i) leverage the joint use of propensity and prognostic scores in a matching algorithm to obtain a proxy of the heterogeneous treatment effects for each observation, (ii) utilize non-parametric regression trees to construct an estimator for the CATE function conditioning on the two scores. The method naturally stratifies treatment effects into subgroups over a 2d grid whose axis are the propensity and prognostic scores. We conduct benchmark experiments on multiple simulated data and demonstrate clear advantages of the proposed estimator over state of the art methods. We also evaluate empirical performance in real-life settings, using two observational data from a clinical trial and a complex social survey, and interpret policy implications following the numerical results.
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We consider the fundamental task of optimizing a real-valued function defined in a potentially high-dimensional Euclidean space, such as the loss function in many machine-learning tasks or the logarithm of the probability distribution in statistical inference. We use the warped Riemannian geometry notions to redefine the optimisation problem of a function on Euclidean space to a Riemannian manifold with a warped metric, and then find the function's optimum along this manifold. The warped metric chosen for the search domain induces a computational friendly metric-tensor for which optimal search directions associate with geodesic curves on the manifold becomes easier to compute. Performing optimization along geodesics is known to be generally infeasible, yet we show that in this specific manifold we can analytically derive Taylor approximations up to third-order. In general these approximations to the geodesic curve will not lie on the manifold, however we construct suitable retraction maps to pull them back onto the manifold. Therefore, we can efficiently optimize along the approximate geodesic curves. We cover the related theory, describe a practical optimization algorithm and empirically evaluate it on a collection of challenging optimisation benchmarks. Our proposed algorithm, using third-order approximation of geodesics, outperforms standard Euclidean gradient-based counterparts in term of number of iterations until convergence and an alternative method for Hessian-based optimisation routines.
We propose a generalization of nonlinear stability of numerical one-step integrators to Riemannian manifolds in the spirit of Butcher's notion of B-stability. Taking inspiration from Simpson-Porco and Bullo, we introduce non-expansive systems on such manifolds and define B-stability of integrators. In this first exposition, we provide concrete results for a geodesic version of the Implicit Euler (GIE) scheme. We prove that the GIE method is B-stable on Riemannian manifolds with non-positive sectional curvature. We show through numerical examples that the GIE method is expansive when applied to a certain non-expansive vector field on the 2-sphere, and that the GIE method does not necessarily possess a unique solution for large enough step sizes. Finally, we derive a new improved global error estimate for general Lie group integrators.
Latitude on the choice of initialisation is a shared feature between one-step extended state-space and multi-step methods. The paper focuses on lattice Boltzmann schemes, which can be interpreted as examples of both previous categories of numerical schemes. We propose a modified equation analysis of the initialisation schemes for lattice Boltzmann methods, determined by the choice of initial data. These modified equations provide guidelines to devise and analyze the initialisation in terms of order of consistency with respect to the target Cauchy problem and time smoothness of the numerical solution. In detail, the larger the number of matched terms between modified equations for initialisation and bulk methods, the smoother the obtained numerical solution. This is particularly manifest for numerical dissipation. Starting from the constraints to achieve time smoothness, which can quickly become prohibitive for they have to take the parasitic modes into consideration, we explain how the distinct lack of observability for certain lattice Boltzmann schemes -- seen as dynamical systems on a commutative ring -- can yield rather simple conditions and be easily studied as far as their initialisation is concerned. This comes from the reduced number of initialisation schemes at the fully discrete level. These theoretical results are successfully assessed on several lattice Boltzmann methods.
Matching is a popular nonparametric covariate adjustment strategy in empirical health services research. Matching helps construct two groups comparable in many baseline covariates but different in some key aspects under investigation. In health disparities research, it is desirable to understand the contributions of various modifiable factors, like income and insurance type, to the observed disparity in access to health services between different groups. To single out the contributions from the factors of interest, we propose a statistical matching methodology that constructs nested matched comparison groups from, for instance, White men, that resemble the target group, for instance, black men, in some selected covariates while remaining identical to the white men population before matching in the remaining covariates. Using the proposed method, we investigated the disparity gaps between white men and black men in the US in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening based on the 2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BFRSS) database. We found a widening PSA screening rate as the white matched comparison group increasingly resembles the black men group and quantified the contribution of modifiable factors like socioeconomic status. Finally, we provide code that replicates the case study and a tutorial that enables users to design customized matched comparison groups satisfying multiple criteria.
This paper addresses the problem of providing robust estimators under a functional logistic regression model. Logistic regression is a popular tool in classification problems with two populations. As in functional linear regression, regularization tools are needed to compute estimators for the functional slope. The traditional methods are based on dimension reduction or penalization combined with maximum likelihood or quasi--likelihood techniques and for that reason, they may be affected by misclassified points especially if they are associated to functional covariates with atypical behaviour. The proposal given in this paper adapts some of the best practices used when the covariates are finite--dimensional to provide reliable estimations. Under regularity conditions, consistency of the resulting estimators and rates of convergence for the predictions are derived. A numerical study illustrates the finite sample performance of the proposed method and reveals its stability under different contamination scenarios. A real data example is also presented.
We analyze connections between two low rank modeling approaches from the last decade for treating dynamical data. The first one is the coherence problem (or coherent set approach), where groups of states are sought that evolve under the action of a stochastic matrix in a way maximally distinguishable from other groups. The second one is a low rank factorization approach for stochastic matrices, called Direct Bayesian Model Reduction (DBMR), which estimates the low rank factors directly from observed data. We show that DBMR results in a low rank model that is a projection of the full model, and exploit this insight to infer bounds on a quantitative measure of coherence within the reduced model. Both approaches can be formulated as optimization problems, and we also prove a bound between their respective objectives. On a broader scope, this work relates the two classical loss functions of nonnegative matrix factorization, namely the Frobenius norm and the generalized Kullback--Leibler divergence, and suggests new links between likelihood-based and projection-based estimation of probabilistic models.
In this work, we present a novel method for hierarchically variable clustering using singular value decomposition. Our proposed approach provides a non-parametric solution to identify block diagonal patterns in covariance (correlation) matrices, thereby grouping variables according to their dissimilarity. We explain the methodology and outline the incorporation of linkage functions to assess dissimilarities between clusters. To validate the efficiency of our method, we perform both a simulation study and an analysis of real-world data. Our findings show the approach's robustness. We conclude by discussing potential extensions and future directions for research in this field. Supplementary materials for this article can be accessed online.
Bayesian Optimization (BO) links Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates with sequential design toward optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Example design heuristics, or so-called acquisition functions, like expected improvement (EI), balance exploration and exploitation to furnish global solutions under stringent evaluation budgets. However, they fall short when solving for robust optima, meaning a preference for solutions in a wider domain of attraction. Robust solutions are useful when inputs are imprecisely specified, or where a series of solutions is desired. A common mathematical programming technique in such settings involves an adversarial objective, biasing a local solver away from ``sharp'' troughs. Here we propose a surrogate modeling and active learning technique called robust expected improvement (REI) that ports adversarial methodology into the BO/GP framework. After describing the methods, we illustrate and draw comparisons to several competitors on benchmark synthetic exercises and real problems of varying complexity.
Most state-of-the-art machine learning techniques revolve around the optimisation of loss functions. Defining appropriate loss functions is therefore critical to successfully solving problems in this field. We present a survey of the most commonly used loss functions for a wide range of different applications, divided into classification, regression, ranking, sample generation and energy based modelling. Overall, we introduce 33 different loss functions and we organise them into an intuitive taxonomy. Each loss function is given a theoretical backing and we describe where it is best used. This survey aims to provide a reference of the most essential loss functions for both beginner and advanced machine learning practitioners.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
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