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Weak supervision searches have in principle the advantages of both being able to train on experimental data and being able to learn distinctive signal properties. However, the practical applicability of such searches is limited by the fact that successfully training a neural network via weak supervision can require a large amount of signal. In this work, we seek to create neural networks that can learn from less experimental signal by using transfer and meta-learning. The general idea is to first train a neural network on simulations, thereby learning concepts that can be reused or becoming a more efficient learner. The neural network would then be trained on experimental data and should require less signal because of its previous training. We find that transfer and meta-learning can substantially improve the performance of weak supervision searches.

Selecting an evaluation metric is fundamental to model development, but uncertainty remains about when certain metrics are preferable and why. This paper introduces the concept of resolving power to describe the ability of an evaluation metric to distinguish between binary classifiers of similar quality. This ability depends on two attributes: 1. The metric's response to improvements in classifier quality (its signal), and 2. The metric's sampling variability (its noise). The paper defines resolving power generically as a metric's sampling uncertainty scaled by its signal. The primary application of resolving power is to assess threshold-free evaluation metrics, such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). A simulation study compares the AUROC and the AUPRC in a variety of contexts. It finds that the AUROC generally has greater resolving power, but that the AUPRC is better when searching among high-quality classifiers applied to low prevalence outcomes. The paper concludes by proposing an empirical method to estimate resolving power that can be applied to any dataset and any initial classification model.

The word order of a sentence is shaped by multiple principles. The principle of syntactic dependency distance minimization is in conflict with the principle of surprisal minimization (or predictability maximization) in single head syntactic dependency structures: while the former predicts that the head should be placed at the center of the linear arrangement, the latter predicts that the head should be placed at one of the ends (either first or last). A critical question is when surprisal minimization (or predictability maximization) should surpass syntactic dependency distance minimization. In the context of single head structures, it has been predicted that this is more likely to happen when two conditions are met, i.e. (a) fewer words are involved and (b) words are shorter. Here we test the prediction on the noun phrase when it is composed of a demonstrative, a numeral, an adjective and a noun. We find that, across preferred orders in languages, the noun tends to be placed at one of the ends, confirming the theoretical prediction. We also show evidence of anti locality effects: syntactic dependency distances in preferred orders are longer than expected by chance.

This paper investigates extremal quantiles under two-way cluster dependence. We demonstrate that the limiting distribution of the unconditional intermediate order quantiles in the tails converges to a Gaussian distribution. This is remarkable as two-way cluster dependence entails potential non-Gaussianity in general, but extremal quantiles do not suffer from this issue. Building upon this result, we extend our analysis to extremal quantile regressions of intermediate order.

We consider the statistical linear inverse problem of making inference on an unknown source function in an elliptic partial differential equation from noisy observations of its solution. We employ nonparametric Bayesian procedures based on Gaussian priors, leading to convenient conjugate formulae for posterior inference. We review recent results providing theoretical guarantees on the quality of the resulting posterior-based estimation and uncertainty quantification, and we discuss the application of the theory to the important classes of Gaussian series priors defined on the Dirichlet-Laplacian eigenbasis and Mat\'ern process priors. We provide an implementation of posterior inference for both classes of priors, and investigate its performance in a numerical simulation study.

Heuristic tools from statistical physics have been used in the past to locate the phase transitions and compute the optimal learning and generalization errors in the teacher-student scenario in multi-layer neural networks. In this contribution, we provide a rigorous justification of these approaches for a two-layers neural network model called the committee machine. We also introduce a version of the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm for the committee machine that allows to perform optimal learning in polynomial time for a large set of parameters. We find that there are regimes in which a low generalization error is information-theoretically achievable while the AMP algorithm fails to deliver it, strongly suggesting that no efficient algorithm exists for those cases, and unveiling a large computational gap.

Several subjective proposals have been made for interpreting the strength of evidence in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors. I identify a more objective scaling by modelling the effect of evidence on belief. The resulting scale with base 3.73 aligns with previous proposals and may partly explain intuitions.

We propose an algorithm which predicts each subsequent time step relative to the previous timestep of intractable short rate model (when adjusted for drift and overall distribution of previous percentile result) and show that the method achieves superior outcomes to the unbiased estimate both on the trained dataset and different validation data.

The categorical Gini covariance is a dependence measure between a numerical variable and a categorical variable. The Gini covariance measures dependence by quantifying the difference between the conditional and unconditional distributional functions. A value of zero for the categorical Gini covariance implies independence of the numerical variable and the categorical variable. We propose a non-parametric test for testing the independence between a numerical and categorical variable using the categorical Gini covariance. We used the theory of U-statistics to find the test statistics and study the properties. The test has an asymptotic normal distribution. As the implementation of a normal-based test is difficult, we develop a jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL) ratio test for testing independence. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to validate the performance of the proposed JEL-based test. We illustrate the test procedure using real a data set.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.