We employ kernel-based approaches that use samples from a probability distribution to approximate a Kolmogorov operator on a manifold. The self-tuning variable-bandwidth kernel method [Berry & Harlim, Appl. Comput. Harmon. Anal., 40(1):68--96, 2016] computes a large, sparse matrix that approximates the differential operator. Here, we use the eigendecomposition of the discretization to (i) invert the operator, solving a differential equation, and (ii) represent gradient vector fields on the manifold. These methods only require samples from the underlying distribution and, therefore, can be applied in high dimensions or on geometrically complex manifolds when spatial discretizations are not available. We also employ an efficient $k$-$d$ tree algorithm to compute the sparse kernel matrix, which is a computational bottleneck.
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Nonstationary Gaussian process models can capture complex spatially varying dependence structures in spatial datasets. However, the large number of observations in modern datasets makes fitting such models computationally intractable with conventional dense linear algebra. In addition, derivative-free or even first-order optimization methods can be slow to converge when estimating many spatially varying parameters. We present here a computational framework that couples an algebraic block-diagonal plus low-rank covariance matrix approximation with stochastic trace estimation to facilitate the efficient use of second-order solvers for maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian process models with many parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods by simultaneously fitting 192 parameters in the popular nonstationary model of Paciorek and Schervish using 107,600 sea surface temperature anomaly measurements.
The FedProx algorithm is a simple yet powerful distributed proximal point optimization method widely used for federated learning (FL) over heterogeneous data. Despite its popularity and remarkable success witnessed in practice, the theoretical understanding of FedProx is largely underinvestigated: the appealing convergence behavior of FedProx is so far characterized under certain non-standard and unrealistic dissimilarity assumptions of local functions, and the results are limited to smooth optimization problems. In order to remedy these deficiencies, we develop a novel local dissimilarity invariant convergence theory for FedProx and its minibatch stochastic extension through the lens of algorithmic stability. As a result, we contribute to derive several new and deeper insights into FedProx for non-convex federated optimization including: 1) convergence guarantees independent on local dissimilarity type conditions; 2) convergence guarantees for non-smooth FL problems; and 3) linear speedup with respect to size of minibatch and number of sampled devices. Our theory for the first time reveals that local dissimilarity and smoothness are not must-have for FedProx to get favorable complexity bounds. Preliminary experimental results on a series of benchmark FL datasets are reported to demonstrate the benefit of minibatching for improving the sample efficiency of FedProx.
Established approaches to obtain generalization bounds in data-driven optimization and machine learning mostly build on solutions from empirical risk minimization (ERM), which depend crucially on the functional complexity of the hypothesis class. In this paper, we present an alternate route to obtain these bounds on the solution from distributionally robust optimization (DRO), a recent data-driven optimization framework based on worst-case analysis and the notion of ambiguity set to capture statistical uncertainty. In contrast to the hypothesis class complexity in ERM, our DRO bounds depend on the ambiguity set geometry and its compatibility with the true loss function. Notably, when using maximum mean discrepancy as a DRO distance metric, our analysis implies generalization bounds whose dependence on the hypothesis class appears the minimal possible: The bound depends solely on the true loss function, independent of any other candidates in the hypothesis class. To our best knowledge, it is the first generalization bound of this type in the literature, and we hope our findings can open the door for a better understanding of DRO, especially its benefits on loss minimization and other machine learning applications.
We study the problem of consistently recovering the sparsity pattern of a regression parameter vector from correlated observations governed by deterministic missing data patterns using Lasso. We consider the case in which the observed dataset is censored by a deterministic, non-uniform filter. Recovering the sparsity pattern in datasets with deterministic missing structure can be arguably more challenging than recovering in a uniformly-at-random scenario. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm for missing value imputation by utilizing the topological property of the censorship filter. We then provide novel theoretical results for exact recovery of the sparsity pattern using the proposed imputation strategy. Our analysis shows that, under certain statistical and topological conditions, the hidden sparsity pattern can be recovered consistently with high probability in polynomial time and logarithmic sample complexity.
The planted coloring problem is a prototypical inference problem for which thresholds for Bayes optimal algorithms, like Belief Propagation (BP), can be computed analytically. In this paper, we analyze the limits and performances of the Simulated Annealing (SA), a Monte Carlo-based algorithm that is more general and robust than BP, and thus of broader applicability. We show that SA is sub-optimal in the recovery of the planted solution because it gets attracted by glassy states that, instead, do not influence the BP algorithm. At variance with previous conjectures, we propose an analytic estimation for the SA algorithmic threshold by comparing the spinodal point of the paramagnetic phase and the dynamical critical temperature. This is a fundamental connection between thermodynamical phase transitions and out of equilibrium behavior of Glauber dynamics. We also study an improved version of SA, called replicated SA (RSA), where several weakly coupled replicas are cooled down together. We show numerical evidence that the algorithmic threshold for the RSA coincides with the Bayes optimal one. Finally, we develop an approximated analytical theory explaining the optimal performances of RSA and predicting the location of the transition towards the planted solution in the limit of a very large number of replicas. Our results for RSA support the idea that mismatching the parameters in the prior with respect to those of the generative model may produce an algorithm that is optimal and very robust.
Existing frameworks for probabilistic inference assume the quantity of interest is the parameter of a posited statistical model. In machine learning applications, however, often there is no statistical model/parameter; the quantity of interest is a statistical functional, a feature of the underlying distribution. Model-based methods can only handle such problems indirectly, via marginalization from a model parameter to the real quantity of interest. Here we develop a generalized inferential model (IM) framework for direct probabilistic uncertainty quantification on the quantity of interest. In particular, we construct a data-dependent, bootstrap-based possibility measure for uncertainty quantification and inference. We then prove that this new approach provides approximately valid inference in the sense that the plausibility values assigned to hypotheses about the unknowns are asymptotically well-calibrated in a frequentist sense. Among other things, this implies that confidence regions for the underlying functional derived from our proposed IM are approximately valid. The method is shown to perform well in key examples, including quantile regression, and in a personalized medicine application.
We consider the problem of signal estimation in generalized linear models defined via rotationally invariant design matrices. Since these matrices can have an arbitrary spectral distribution, this model is well suited for capturing complex correlation structures which often arise in applications. We propose a novel family of approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms for signal estimation, and rigorously characterize their performance in the high-dimensional limit via a state evolution recursion. Our rotationally invariant AMP has complexity of the same order as the existing AMP derived under the restrictive assumption of a Gaussian design; our algorithm also recovers this existing AMP as a special case. Numerical results showcase a performance close to Vector AMP (which is conjectured to be Bayes-optimal in some settings), but obtained with a much lower complexity, as the proposed algorithm does not require a computationally expensive singular value decomposition.
Efficient sampling and remote estimation are critical for a plethora of wireless-empowered applications in the Internet of Things and cyber-physical systems. Motivated by such applications, this work proposes decentralized policies for the real-time monitoring and estimation of autoregressive processes over random access channels. Two classes of policies are investigated: (i) oblivious schemes in which sampling and transmission policies are independent of the processes that are monitored, and (ii) non-oblivious schemes in which transmitters causally observe their corresponding processes for decision making. In the class of oblivious policies, we show that minimizing the expected time-average estimation error is equivalent to minimizing the expected age of information. Consequently, we prove lower and upper bounds on the minimum achievable estimation error in this class. Next, we consider non-oblivious policies and design a threshold policy, called error-based thinning, in which each source node becomes active if its instantaneous error has crossed a fixed threshold (which we optimize). Active nodes then transmit stochastically following a slotted ALOHA policy. A closed-form, approximately optimal, solution is found for the threshold as well as the resulting estimation error. It is shown that non-oblivious policies offer a multiplicative gain close to $3$ compared to oblivious policies. Moreover, it is shown that oblivious policies that use the age of information for decision making improve the state-of-the-art at least by the multiplicative factor $2$. The performance of all discussed policies is compared using simulations. The numerical comparison shows that the performance of the proposed decentralized policy is very close to that of centralized greedy scheduling.
Exponential generalization bounds with near-tight rates have recently been established for uniformly stable learning algorithms. The notion of uniform stability, however, is stringent in the sense that it is invariant to the data-generating distribution. Under the weaker and distribution dependent notions of stability such as hypothesis stability and $L_2$-stability, the literature suggests that only polynomial generalization bounds are possible in general cases. The present paper addresses this long standing tension between these two regimes of results and makes progress towards relaxing it inside a classic framework of confidence-boosting. To this end, we first establish an in-expectation first moment generalization error bound for potentially randomized learning algorithms with $L_2$-stability, based on which we then show that a properly designed subbagging process leads to near-tight exponential generalization bounds over the randomness of both data and algorithm. We further substantialize these generic results to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to derive improved high-probability generalization bounds for convex or non-convex optimization problems with natural time decaying learning rates, which have not been possible to prove with the existing hypothesis stability or uniform stability based results.
Mini-batch optimal transport (m-OT) has been successfully used in practical applications that involve probability measures with a very high number of supports. The m-OT solves several smaller optimal transport problems and then returns the average of their costs and transportation plans. Despite its scalability advantage, the m-OT does not consider the relationship between mini-batches which leads to undesirable estimation. Moreover, the m-OT does not approximate a proper metric between probability measures since the identity property is not satisfied. To address these problems, we propose a novel mini-batch scheme for optimal transport, named Batch of Mini-batches Optimal Transport (BoMb-OT), that finds the optimal coupling between mini-batches and it can be seen as an approximation to a well-defined distance on the space of probability measures. Furthermore, we show that the m-OT is a limit of the entropic regularized version of the BoMb-OT when the regularized parameter goes to infinity. Finally, we carry out experiments on various applications including deep generative models, deep domain adaptation, approximate Bayesian computation, color transfer, and gradient flow to show that the BoMb-OT can be widely applied and performs well in various applications.
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