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We consider optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) under model uncertainty. Specifically, we consider inverse problems in which, in addition to the inversion parameters, the governing PDEs include secondary uncertain parameters. We focus on problems with infinite-dimensional inversion and secondary parameters and present a scalable computational framework for optimal design of such problems. The proposed approach enables Bayesian inversion and OED under uncertainty within a unified framework. We build on the Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach, to incorporate modeling uncertainties in the Bayesian inverse problem, and methods for A-optimal design of infinite-dimensional Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems. Specifically, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior at the maximum a posteriori probability point is used to define an uncertainty aware OED objective that is tractable to evaluate and optimize. In particular, the OED objective can be computed at a cost, in the number of PDE solves, that does not grow with the dimension of the discretized inversion and secondary parameters. The OED problem is formulated as a binary bilevel PDE constrained optimization problem and a greedy algorithm, which provides a pragmatic approach, is used to find optimal designs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for a model inverse problem governed by an elliptic PDE on a three-dimensional domain. Our computational results also highlight the pitfalls of ignoring modeling uncertainties in the OED and/or inference stages.

Generalized linear models (GLMs) arguably represent the standard approach for statistical regression beyond the Gaussian likelihood scenario. When Bayesian formulations are employed, the general absence of a tractable posterior distribution has motivated the development of deterministic approximations, which are generally more scalable than sampling techniques. Among them, expectation propagation (EP) showed extreme accuracy, usually higher than many variational Bayes solutions. However, the higher computational cost of EP posed concerns about its practical feasibility, especially in high-dimensional settings. We address these concerns by deriving a novel efficient formulation of EP for GLMs, whose cost scales linearly in the number of covariates p. This reduces the state-of-the-art O(p^2 n) per-iteration computational cost of the EP routine for GLMs to O(p n min{p,n}), with n being the sample size. We also show that, for binary models and log-linear GLMs approximate predictive means can be obtained at no additional cost. To preserve efficient moment matching for count data, we propose employing a combination of log-normal Laplace transform approximations, avoiding numerical integration. These novel results open the possibility of employing EP in settings that were believed to be practically impossible. Improvements over state-of-the-art approaches are illustrated both for simulated and real data. The efficient EP implementation is available at //github.com/niccoloanceschi/EPglm.

Tools from optimal transport (OT) theory have recently been used to define a notion of quantile function for directional data. In practice, regularization is mandatory for applications that require out-of-sample estimates. To this end, we introduce a regularized estimator built from entropic optimal transport, by extending the definition of the entropic map to the spherical setting. We propose a stochastic algorithm to directly solve a continuous OT problem between the uniform distribution and a target distribution, by expanding Kantorovich potentials in the basis of spherical harmonics. In addition, we define the directional Monge-Kantorovich depth, a companion concept for OT-based quantiles. We show that it benefits from desirable properties related to Liu-Zuo-Serfling axioms for the statistical analysis of directional data. Building on our regularized estimators, we illustrate the benefits of our methodology for data analysis.

This paper introduces a new numerical scheme for a system that includes evolution equations describing a perfect plasticity model with a time-dependent yield surface. We demonstrate that the solution to the proposed scheme is stable under suitable norms. Moreover, the stability leads to the existence of an exact solution, and we also prove that the solution to the proposed scheme converges strongly to the exact solution under suitable norms.

We consider functional linear regression models where functional outcomes are associated with scalar predictors by coefficient functions with shape constraints, such as monotonicity and convexity, that apply to sub-domains of interest. To validate the partial shape constraints, we propose testing a composite hypothesis of linear functional constraints on regression coefficients. Our approach employs kernel- and spline-based methods within a unified inferential framework, evaluating the statistical significance of the hypothesis by measuring an $L^2$-distance between constrained and unconstrained model fits. In the theoretical study of large-sample analysis under mild conditions, we show that both methods achieve the standard rate of convergence observed in the nonparametric estimation literature. Through numerical experiments of finite-sample analysis, we demonstrate that the type I error rate keeps the significance level as specified across various scenarios and that the power increases with sample size, confirming the consistency of the test procedure under both estimation methods. Our theoretical and numerical results provide researchers the flexibility to choose a method based on computational preference. The practicality of partial shape-constrained inference is illustrated by two data applications: one involving clinical trials of NeuroBloc in type A-resistant cervical dystonia and the other with the National Institute of Mental Health Schizophrenia Study.

The weak form of the SDOF and MDOF equations of motion are obtained. The original initial conditions problem is transformed into a boundary value problem. The boundary value problem is then solved and transformed back to the initial conditions one. Subsequently, a general method for obtaining numerical methods using an arbitrary number of linearly independent approximating functions is outlined. This is part one of a series of three papers, in the second of which a numerical method is obtained, using Bernstein polynomials of arbitrarily high order. The numerical evidence for the convergence of the method will be presented in the third part paper.

A functional nonlinear regression approach, incorporating time information in the covariates, is proposed for temporal strong correlated manifold map data sequence analysis. Specifically, the functional regression parameters are supported on a connected and compact two--point homogeneous space. The Generalized Least--Squares (GLS) parameter estimator is computed in the linearized model, having error term displaying manifold scale varying Long Range Dependence (LRD). The performance of the theoretical and plug--in nonlinear regression predictors is illustrated by simulations on sphere, in terms of the empirical mean of the computed spherical functional absolute errors. In the case where the second--order structure of the functional error term in the linearized model is unknown, its estimation is performed by minimum contrast in the functional spectral domain. The linear case is illustrated in the Supplementary Material, revealing the effect of the slow decay velocity in time of the trace norms of the covariance operator family of the regression LRD error term. The purely spatial statistical analysis of atmospheric pressure at high cloud bottom, and downward solar radiation flux in Alegria et al. (2021) is extended to the spatiotemporal context, illustrating the numerical results from a generated synthetic data set.

This contribution introduces a model order reduction approach for an advection-reaction problem with a parametrized reaction function. The underlying discretization uses an ultraweak formulation with an $L^2$-like trial space and an 'optimal' test space as introduced by Demkowicz et al. This ensures the stability of the discretization and in addition allows for a symmetric reformulation of the problem in terms of a dual solution which can also be interpreted as the normal equations of an adjoint least-squares problem. Classic model order reduction techniques can then be applied to the space of dual solutions which also immediately gives a reduced primal space. We show that the necessary computations do not require the reconstruction of any primal solutions and can instead be performed entirely on the space of dual solutions. We prove exponential convergence of the Kolmogorov $N$-width and show that a greedy algorithm produces quasi-optimal approximation spaces for both the primal and the dual solution space. Numerical experiments based on the benchmark problem of a catalytic filter confirm the applicability of the proposed method.

Factor models are widely used for dimension reduction in the analysis of multivariate data. This is achieved through decomposition of a p x p covariance matrix into the sum of two components. Through a latent factor representation, they can be interpreted as a diagonal matrix of idiosyncratic variances and a shared variation matrix, that is, the product of a p x k factor loadings matrix and its transpose. If k << p, this defines a parsimonious factorisation of the covariance matrix. Historically, little attention has been paid to incorporating prior information in Bayesian analyses using factor models where, at best, the prior for the factor loadings is order invariant. In this work, a class of structured priors is developed that can encode ideas of dependence structure about the shared variation matrix. The construction allows data-informed shrinkage towards sensible parametric structures while also facilitating inference over the number of factors. Using an unconstrained reparameterisation of stationary vector autoregressions, the methodology is extended to stationary dynamic factor models. For computational inference, parameter-expanded Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers are proposed, including an efficient adaptive Gibbs sampler. Two substantive applications showcase the scope of the methodology and its inferential benefits.