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We describe a quantum algorithm for the Planted Noisy $k$XOR problem (also known as sparse Learning Parity with Noise) that achieves a nearly quartic ($4$th power) speedup over the best known classical algorithm while also only using logarithmically many qubits. Our work generalizes and simplifies prior work of Hastings, by building on his quantum algorithm for the Tensor Principal Component Analysis (PCA) problem. We achieve our quantum speedup using a general framework based on the Kikuchi Method (recovering the quartic speedup for Tensor PCA), and we anticipate it will yield similar speedups for further planted inference problems. These speedups rely on the fact that planted inference problems naturally instantiate the Guided Sparse Hamiltonian problem. Since the Planted Noisy $k$XOR problem has been used as a component of certain cryptographic constructions, our work suggests that some of these are susceptible to super-quadratic quantum attacks.

This note discusses a simple modification of cross-conformal prediction inspired by recent work on e-values. The precursor of conformal prediction developed in the 1990s by Gammerman, Vapnik, and Vovk was also based on e-values and is called conformal e-prediction in this note. Replacing e-values by p-values led to conformal prediction, which has important advantages over conformal e-prediction without obvious disadvantages. The situation with cross-conformal prediction is, however, different: whereas for cross-conformal prediction validity is only an empirical fact (and can be broken with excessive randomization), this note draws the reader's attention to the obvious fact that cross-conformal e-prediction enjoys a guaranteed property of validity.

Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference uses all of probability theory, not just Bayes's theorem. Many hypotheses of scientific interest are *composite hypotheses*, with the strength of evidence for the hypothesis dependent on knowledge about auxiliary factors, such as the values of nuisance parameters (e.g., uncertain background rates or calibration factors). Many important capabilities of Bayesian methods arise from use of the law of total probability, which instructs analysts to compute probabilities for composite hypotheses by *marginalization* over auxiliary factors. This tutorial targets relative newcomers to Bayesian inference, aiming to complement tutorials that focus on Bayes's theorem and how priors modulate likelihoods. The emphasis here is on marginalization over parameter spaces -- both how it is the foundation for important capabilities, and how it may motivate caution when parameter spaces are large. Topics covered include the difference between likelihood and probability, understanding the impact of priors beyond merely shifting the maximum likelihood estimate, and the role of marginalization in accounting for uncertainty in nuisance parameters, systematic error, and model misspecification.

Given an Abelian group G, a Boolean-valued function f: G -> {-1,+1}, is said to be s-sparse, if it has at most s-many non-zero Fourier coefficients over the domain G. In a seminal paper, Gopalan et al. proved "Granularity" for Fourier coefficients of Boolean valued functions over Z_2^n, that have found many diverse applications in theoretical computer science and combinatorics. They also studied structural results for Boolean functions over Z_2^n which are approximately Fourier-sparse. In this work, we obtain structural results for approximately Fourier-sparse Boolean valued functions over Abelian groups G of the form,G:= Z_{p_1}^{n_1} \times ... \times Z_{p_t}^{n_t}, for distinct primes p_i. We also obtain a lower bound of the form 1/(m^{2}s)^ceiling(phi(m)/2), on the absolute value of the smallest non-zero Fourier coefficient of an s-sparse function, where m=p_1 ... p_t, and phi(m)=(p_1-1) ... (p_t-1). We carefully apply probabilistic techniques from Gopalan et al., to obtain our structural results, and use some non-trivial results from algebraic number theory to get the lower bound. We construct a family of at most s-sparse Boolean functions over Z_p^n, where p > 2, for arbitrarily large enough s, where the minimum non-zero Fourier coefficient is 1/omega(n). The "Granularity" result of Gopalan et al. implies that the absolute values of non-zero Fourier coefficients of any s-sparse Boolean valued function over Z_2^n are 1/O(s). So, our result shows that one cannot expect such a lower bound for general Abelian groups. Using our new structural results on the Fourier coefficients of sparse functions, we design an efficient testing algorithm for Fourier-sparse Boolean functions, thata requires poly((ms)^phi(m),1/epsilon)-many queries. Further, we prove an Omega(sqrt{s}) lower bound on the query complexity of any adaptive sparsity testing algorithm.

In this paper, we study the problem of noisy, convex, zeroth order optimisation of a function $f$ over a bounded convex set $\bar{\mathcal X}\subset \mathbb{R}^d$. Given a budget $n$ of noisy queries to the function $f$ that can be allocated sequentially and adaptively, our aim is to construct an algorithm that returns a point $\hat x\in \bar{\mathcal X}$ such that $f(\hat x)$ is as small as possible. We provide a conceptually simple method inspired by the textbook center of gravity method, but adapted to the noisy and zeroth order setting. We prove that this method is such that the $f(\hat x) - \min_{x\in \bar{\mathcal X}} f(x)$ is of smaller order than $d^2/\sqrt{n}$ up to poly-logarithmic terms. We slightly improve upon existing literature, where to the best of our knowledge the best known rate is in [Lattimore, 2024] is of order $d^{2.5}/\sqrt{n}$, albeit for a more challenging problem. Our main contribution is however conceptual, as we believe that our algorithm and its analysis bring novel ideas and are significantly simpler than existing approaches.

Given a graph $G$ and a vertex set $X$, the annotated treewidth tw$(G,X)$ of $X$ in $G$ is the maximum treewidth of an $X$-rooted minor of $G$, i.e., a minor $H$ where the model of each vertex of $H$ contains some vertex of $X$. That way, tw$(G,X)$ can be seen as a measure of the contribution of $X$ to the tree-decomposability of $G$. We introduce the logic CMSO/tw as the fragment of monadic second-order logic on graphs obtained by restricting set quantification to sets of bounded annotated treewidth. We prove the following Algorithmic Meta-Theorem (AMT): for every non-trivial minor-closed graph class, model checking for CMSO/tw formulas can be done in quadratic time. Our proof works for the more general CMSO/tw+dp logic, that is CMSO/tw enhanced by disjoint-path predicates. Our AMT can be seen as an extension of Courcelle's theorem to minor-closed graph classes where the bounded-treewidth condition in the input graph is replaced by the bounded-treewidth quantification in the formulas. Our results yield, as special cases, all known AMTs whose combinatorial restriction is non-trivial minor-closedness.

An $n$-player game $X$ in normal form can be modeled via undirected discrete graphical models where the discrete random variables represent the players and their state spaces are the set of pure strategies. There exists an edge between the vertices of the graphical model whenever there is a dependency between the associated players. We study the Spohn conditional independence (CI) variety $\mathcal{V}_{X,\mathcal{C}}$, which is the intersection of the independence model $\mathcal{M}_{\mathcal{C}}$ with the Spohn variety of the game $X$. We prove a conjecture by the first author and Sturmfels that $\mathcal{V}_{X,\mathcal{C}}$ is of codimension $n$ in $\mathcal{M}_{\mathcal{C}}$ for a generic game $X$ with binary choices. We show that the set of totally mixed CI equilibria i.e., the restriction of the Spohn CI variety to the open probability simplex is a smooth semialgebraic manifold for a generic game $X$ with binary choices. If the undirected graph is a disjoint union of cliques, we analyze certain algebro-geometric features of Spohn CI varieties and prove affine universality theorems.

Rational approximation is a powerful tool to obtain accurate surrogates for nonlinear functions that are easy to evaluate and linearize. The interpolatory adaptive Antoulas--Anderson (AAA) method is one approach to construct such approximants numerically. For large-scale vector- and matrix-valued functions, however, the direct application of the set-valued variant of AAA becomes inefficient. We propose and analyze a new sketching approach for such functions called sketchAAA that, with high probability, leads to much better approximants than previously suggested approaches while retaining efficiency. The sketching approach works in a black-box fashion where only evaluations of the nonlinear function at sampling points are needed. Numerical tests with nonlinear eigenvalue problems illustrate the efficacy of our approach, with speedups above 200 for sampling large-scale black-box functions without sacrificing on accuracy.

We investigate perturbations of orthonormal bases of $L^2$ via a composition operator $C_h$ induced by a mapping $h$. We provide a comprehensive characterization of the mapping $h$ required for the perturbed sequence to form an orthonormal or Riesz basis. Restricting our analysis to differentiable mappings, we reveal that all Riesz bases of the given form are induced by bi-Lipschitz mappings. In addition, we discuss implications of these results for approximation theory, highlighting the potential of using bijective neural networks to construct complete sequences with favorable approximation properties.

We determine the best n-term approximation of generalized Wiener model classes in a Hilbert space $H $. This theory is then applied to several special cases.