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In this paper, we establish error estimates for the numerical approximation of the parabolic optimal control problem with measure data in a two-dimensional nonconvex polygonal domain. Due to the presence of measure data in the state equation and the nonconvex nature of the domain, the finite element error analysis is not straightforward. Regularity results for the control problem based on the first-order optimality system are discussed. The state variable and co-state variable are approximated by continuous piecewise linear finite element, and the control variable is approximated by piecewise constant functions. A priori error estimates for the state and control variable are derived for spatially discrete control problem and fully discrete control problem in $L^2(L^2)$-norm. A numerical experiment is performed to illustrate our theoretical findings.

Longitudinal studies are often subject to missing data. The ICH E9(R1) addendum addresses the importance of defining a treatment effect estimand with the consideration of intercurrent events. Jump-to-reference (J2R) is one classically envisioned control-based scenario for the treatment effect evaluation using the hypothetical strategy, where the participants in the treatment group after intercurrent events are assumed to have the same disease progress as those with identical covariates in the control group. We establish new estimators to assess the average treatment effect based on a proposed potential outcomes framework under J2R. Various identification formulas are constructed under the assumptions addressed by J2R, motivating estimators that rely on different parts of the observed data distribution. Moreover, we obtain a novel estimator inspired by the efficient influence function, with multiple robustness in the sense that it achieves $n^{1/2}$-consistency if any pairs of multiple nuisance functions are correctly specified, or if the nuisance functions converge at a rate not slower than $n^{-1/4}$ when using flexible modeling approaches. The finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators is validated in simulation studies and an antidepressant clinical trial.

Real-world data often comes in compressed form. Analyzing compressed data directly (without decompressing it) can save space and time by orders of magnitude. In this work, we focus on fundamental sequence comparison problems and try to quantify the gain in time complexity when the underlying data is highly compressible. We consider grammar compression, which unifies many practically relevant compression schemes. For two strings of total length $N$ and total compressed size $n$, it is known that the edit distance and a longest common subsequence (LCS) can be computed exactly in time $\tilde{O}(nN)$, as opposed to $O(N^2)$ for the uncompressed setting. Many applications need to align multiple sequences simultaneously, and the fastest known exact algorithms for median edit distance and LCS of $k$ strings run in $O(N^k)$ time. This naturally raises the question of whether compression can help to reduce the running time significantly for $k \geq 3$, perhaps to $O(N^{k/2}n^{k/2})$ or $O(Nn^{k-1})$. Unfortunately, we show lower bounds that rule out any improvement beyond $\Omega(N^{k-1}n)$ time for any of these problems assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis. At the same time, we show that approximation and compression together can be surprisingly effective. We develop an $\tilde{O}(N^{k/2}n^{k/2})$-time FPTAS for the median edit distance of $k$ sequences. In comparison, no $O(N^{k-\Omega(1)})$-time PTAS is known for the median edit distance problem in the uncompressed setting. For two strings, we get an $\tilde{O}(N^{2/3}n^{4/3})$-time FPTAS for both edit distance and LCS. In contrast, for uncompressed strings, there is not even a subquadratic algorithm for LCS that has less than a polynomial gap in the approximation factor. Building on the insight from our approximation algorithms, we also obtain results for many distance measures including the edit, Hamming, and shift distances.

We present a new uncertainty principle for risk-aware statistical estimation, effectively quantifying the inherent trade-off between mean squared error ($\mse$) and risk, the latter measured by the associated average predictive squared error variance ($\sev$), for every admissible estimator of choice. Our uncertainty principle has a familiar form and resembles fundamental and classical results arising in several other areas, such as the Heisenberg principle in statistical and quantum mechanics, and the Gabor limit (time-scale trade-offs) in harmonic analysis. In particular, we prove that, provided a joint generative model of states and observables, the product between $\mse$ and $\sev$ is bounded from below by a computable model-dependent constant, which is explicitly related to the Pareto frontier of a recently studied $\sev$-constrained minimum $\mse$ (MMSE) estimation problem. Further, we show that the aforementioned constant is inherently connected to an intuitive new and rigorously topologically grounded statistical measure of distribution skewness in multiple dimensions, consistent with Pearson's moment coefficient of skewness for variables on the line. Our results are also illustrated via numerical simulations.

Suppose we are interested in the effect of a treatment in a clinical trial. The efficiency of inference may be limited due to small sample size. However, external control data are often available from historical studies. Motivated by an application to Helicobacter pylori infection, we show how to borrow strength from such data to improve efficiency of inference in the clinical trial. Under an exchangeability assumption about the potential outcome mean, we show that the semiparametric efficiency bound for estimating the average treatment effect can be reduced by incorporating both the clinical trial data and external controls. We then derive a doubly robust and locally efficient estimator. The improvement in efficiency is prominent especially when the external control dataset has a large sample size and small variability. Our method allows for a relaxed overlap assumption, and we illustrate with the case where the clinical trial only contains a treated group. We also develop doubly robust and locally efficient approaches that extrapolate the causal effect in the clinical trial to the external population and the overall population. Our results also offer a meaningful implication for trial design and data collection. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators via simulation. In the Helicobacter pylori infection application, our approach shows that the combination treatment has potential efficacy advantages over the triple therapy.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic, degenerative neurological disorder. PD cannot be prevented, slowed or cured as of today but highly effective symptomatic treatments are available. We consider relevant estimands and treatment effect estimators for randomized trials of a novel treatment which aims to slow down disease progression versus placebo in early, untreated PD. A commonly used endpoint in PD trials is the MDS-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS), which is longitudinally assessed at scheduled visits. The most important intercurrent events (ICEs) which affect the interpretation of the MDS-UPDRS are study treatment discontinuations and initiations of symptomatic treatment. Different estimand strategies are discussed and hypothetical or treatment policy strategies, respectively, for different types of ICEs seem most appropriate in this context. Several estimators based on multiple imputation which target these estimands are proposed and compared in terms of bias, mean-squared error, and power in a simulation study. The investigated estimators include methods based on a missing-at-random (MAR) assumption, with and without the inclusion of time-varying ICE-indicators, as well as reference-based imputation methods. Simulation parameters are motivated by data analyses of a cohort study from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI).

Some quasi-arithmetic means of random variables easily give unbiased strongly consistent closed-form estimators of the joint of the location and scale parameters of the Cauchy distribution. The one-step estimators of those quasi-arithmetic means of the Cauchy distribution are considered. We establish the Bahadur efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator and the one-step estimators. We also show that the rate of the convergence of the mean-squared errors achieves the Cramer-Rao bound. Our results are also applicable to the circular Cauchy distribution.

We consider a generalization of the vertex weighted online bipartite matching problem where the offline vertices, called resources, are reusable. In particular, when a resource is matched it is unavailable for a deterministic time duration $d$ after which it becomes available for a re-match. Thus, a resource can be matched to many different online vertices over a period of time. While recent work on the problem has resolved the asymptotic case where we have large starting inventory (i.e., many copies) of every resource, we consider the (more general) case of unit inventory and give the first algorithm that is provably better than the na\"ive greedy approach which has a competitive ratio of (exactly) 0.5. In particular, we achieve a competitive ratio of 0.589 against an LP relaxation of the offline problem.

Randomized controlled trials are not only the golden standard in medicine and vaccine trials but have spread to many other disciplines like behavioral economics, making it an important interdisciplinary tool for scientists. When designing randomized controlled trials, how to assign participants to treatments becomes a key issue. In particular in the presence of covariate factors, the assignment can significantly influence statistical properties and thereby the quality of the trial. Another key issue is the widely popular assumption among experimenters that participants do not influence each other -- which is far from reality in a field study and can, if unaccounted for, deteriorate the quality of the trial. We address both issues in our work. After introducing randomized controlled trials bridging terms from different disciplines, we first address the issue of participant-treatment assignment in the presence of known covariate factors. Thereby, we review a recent assignment algorithm that achieves good worst-case variance bounds. Second, we address social spillover effects. Therefore, we build a comprehensive graph-based model of influence between participants, for which we design our own average treatment effect estimator $\hat \tau_{net}$. We discuss its bias and variance and reduce the problem of variance minimization to a certain instance of minimizing the norm of a matrix-vector product, which has been considered in literature before. Further, we discuss the role of disconnected components in the model's underlying graph.

Leveraging biased click data for optimizing learning to rank systems has been a popular approach in information retrieval. Because click data is often noisy and biased, a variety of methods have been proposed to construct unbiased learning to rank (ULTR) algorithms for the learning of unbiased ranking models. Among them, automatic unbiased learning to rank (AutoULTR) algorithms that jointly learn user bias models (i.e., propensity models) with unbiased rankers have received a lot of attention due to their superior performance and low deployment cost in practice. Despite their differences in theories and algorithm design, existing studies on ULTR usually use uni-variate ranking functions to score each document or result independently. On the other hand, recent advances in context-aware learning-to-rank models have shown that multivariate scoring functions, which read multiple documents together and predict their ranking scores jointly, are more powerful than uni-variate ranking functions in ranking tasks with human-annotated relevance labels. Whether such superior performance would hold in ULTR with noisy data, however, is mostly unknown. In this paper, we investigate existing multivariate scoring functions and AutoULTR algorithms in theory and prove that permutation invariance is a crucial factor that determines whether a context-aware learning-to-rank model could be applied to existing AutoULTR framework. Our experiments with synthetic clicks on two large-scale benchmark datasets show that AutoULTR models with permutation-invariant multivariate scoring functions significantly outperform those with uni-variate scoring functions and permutation-variant multivariate scoring functions.