To answer the question of "Does everybody...?" in the context of performance on cognitive tasks, Haaf and Rouder (2017) developed a class of hierarchical Bayesian mixed models with varying levels of constraint on the individual effects. The models are then compared via Bayes factors, telling us which model best predicts the observed data. One common criticism of their method is that the observed data are assumed to be drawn from a normal distribution. However, for most cognitive tasks, the primary measure of performance is a response time, the distribution of which is well known to not be normal. In this technical note, I investigate the assumption of normality for two datasets in numerical cognition. Specifically, I show that using a shifted lognormal model for the response times does not change the overall pattern of inference. Further, since the model-estimated effects are now on a logarithmic scale, the interpretation of the modeling becomes more difficult, particularly because the estimated effect is now multiplicative rather than additive. As a result, I recommend that even though response times are not normally distributed in general, the simplification afforded by the Haaf and Rouder (2017) approach provides a pragmatic approach to modeling individual differences in cognitive tasks.
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Gaussian mixture models (GMM) are fundamental tools in statistical and data sciences. We study the moments of multivariate Gaussians and GMMs. The $d$-th moment of an $n$-dimensional random variable is a symmetric $d$-way tensor of size $n^d$, so working with moments naively is assumed to be prohibitively expensive for $d>2$ and larger values of $n$. In this work, we develop theory and numerical methods for implicit computations with moment tensors of GMMs, reducing the computational and storage costs to $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ and $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$, respectively, for general covariance matrices, and to $\mathcal{O}(n)$ and $\mathcal{O}(n)$, respectively, for diagonal ones. We derive concise analytic expressions for the moments in terms of symmetrized tensor products, relying on the correspondence between symmetric tensors and homogeneous polynomials, and combinatorial identities involving Bell polynomials. The primary application of this theory is to estimating GMM parameters from a set of observations, when formulated as a moment-matching optimization problem. If there is a known and common covariance matrix, we also show it is possible to debias the data observations, in which case the problem of estimating the unknown means reduces to symmetric CP tensor decomposition. Numerical results validate and illustrate the numerical efficiency of our approaches. This work potentially opens the door to the competitiveness of the method of moments as compared to expectation maximization methods for parameter estimation of GMMs.
In this paper, we investigate the problem of computing Bayesian estimators using Langevin Monte-Carlo type approximation. The novelty of this paper is to consider together the statistical and numerical counterparts (in a general log-concave setting). More precisely, we address the following question: given $n$ observations in $\mathbb{R}^q$ distributed under an unknown probability $\mathbb{P}_{\theta^\star}$ with $\theta^\star \in \mathbb{R}^d$ , what is the optimal numerical strategy and its cost for the approximation of $\theta^\star$ with the Bayesian posterior mean? To answer this question, we establish some quantitative statistical bounds related to the underlying Poincar\'e constant of the model and establish new results about the numerical approximation of Gibbs measures by Cesaro averages of Euler schemes of (over-damped) Langevin diffusions. These last results include in particular some quantitative controls in the weakly convex case based on new bounds on the solution of the related Poisson equation of the diffusion.
Energy forecasting has attracted enormous attention over the last few decades, with novel proposals related to the use of heterogeneous data sources, probabilistic forecasting, online learn-ing, etc. A key aspect that emerged is that learning and forecasting may highly benefit from distributed data, though not only in the geographical sense. That is, various agents collect and own data that may be useful to others. In contrast to recent proposals that look into distributed and privacy-preserving learning (incentive-free), we explore here a framework called regression markets. There, agents aiming to improve their forecasts post a regression task, for which other agents may contribute by sharing their data for their features and get monetarily rewarded for it.The market design is for regression models that are linear in their parameters, and possibly sep-arable, with estimation performed based on either batch or online learning. Both in-sample and out-of-sample aspects are considered, with markets for fitting models in-sample, and then for improving genuine forecasts out-of-sample. Such regression markets rely on recent concepts within interpretability of machine learning approaches and cooperative game theory, with Shapley additive explanations. Besides introducing the market design and proving its desirable properties, application results are shown based on simulation studies (to highlight the salient features of the proposal) and with real-world case studies.
This paper investigates the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) adoption on individual well-being.
We propose some extensions to semi-parametric models based on Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). In the semi-parametric BART paradigm, the response variable is approximated by a linear predictor and a BART model, where the linear component is responsible for estimating the main effects and BART accounts for non-specified interactions and non-linearities. Previous semi-parametric models based on BART have assumed that the set of covariates in the linear predictor and the BART model are mutually exclusive in an attempt to avoid bias and poor coverage properties. The main novelty in our approach lies in the way we change the tree-generation moves in BART to deal with bias/confounding between the parametric and non-parametric components, even when they have covariates in common. This allows us to model complex interactions involving the covariates of primary interest, both among themselves and with those in the BART component. Through synthetic and real-world examples, we demonstrate that the performance of our novel semi-parametric BART is competitive when compared to regression models, alternative formulations of semi-parametric BART, and other tree-based methods. The implementation of the proposed method is available at //github.com/ebprado/CSP-BART.
Evaluating predictive models is a crucial task in predictive analytics. This process is especially challenging with time series data where the observations show temporal dependencies. Several studies have analysed how different performance estimation methods compare with each other for approximating the true loss incurred by a given forecasting model. However, these studies do not address how the estimators behave for model selection: the ability to select the best solution among a set of alternatives. We address this issue and compare a set of estimation methods for model selection in time series forecasting tasks. We attempt to answer two main questions: (i) how often is the best possible model selected by the estimators; and (ii) what is the performance loss when it does not. We empirically found that the accuracy of the estimators for selecting the best solution is low, and the overall forecasting performance loss associated with the model selection process ranges from 1.2% to 2.3%. We also discovered that some factors, such as the sample size, are important in the relative performance of the estimators.
The Wasserstein distance is a distance between two probability distributions and has recently gained increasing popularity in statistics and machine learning, owing to its attractive properties. One important approach to extending this distance is using low-dimensional projections of distributions to avoid a high computational cost and the curse of dimensionality in empirical estimation, such as the sliced Wasserstein or max-sliced Wasserstein distances. Despite their practical success in machine learning tasks, the availability of statistical inferences for projection-based Wasserstein distances is limited owing to the lack of distributional limit results. In this paper, we consider distances defined by integrating or maximizing Wasserstein distances between low-dimensional projections of two probability distributions. Then we derive limit distributions regarding these distances when the two distributions are supported on finite points. We also propose a bootstrap procedure to estimate quantiles of limit distributions from data. This facilitates asymptotically exact interval estimation and hypothesis testing for these distances. Our theoretical results are based on the arguments of Sommerfeld and Munk (2018) for deriving distributional limits regarding the original Wasserstein distance on finite spaces and the theory of sensitivity analysis in nonlinear programming. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to illustrate the theoretical results and demonstrate the applicability of our inferential methods to real data analysis.
We show that the Identity Problem is decidable for finitely generated sub-semigroups of the group $\operatorname{UT}(4, \mathbb{Z})$ of $4 \times 4$ unitriangular integer matrices. As a byproduct of our proof, we have also shown the decidability of several subset reachability problems in $\operatorname{UT}(4, \mathbb{Z})$.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
Multilingual models for Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) are attractive as they have been shown to benefit from more training data, and better lend themselves to adaptation to under-resourced languages. However, initialisation from monolingual context-dependent models leads to an explosion of context-dependent states. Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) is a potential solution to this as it performs well with monophone labels. We investigate multilingual CTC in the context of adaptation and regularisation techniques that have been shown to be beneficial in more conventional contexts. The multilingual model is trained to model a universal International Phonetic Alphabet (IPA)-based phone set using the CTC loss function. Learning Hidden Unit Contribution (LHUC) is investigated to perform language adaptive training. In addition, dropout during cross-lingual adaptation is also studied and tested in order to mitigate the overfitting problem. Experiments show that the performance of the universal phoneme-based CTC system can be improved by applying LHUC and it is extensible to new phonemes during cross-lingual adaptation. Updating all the parameters shows consistent improvement on limited data. Applying dropout during adaptation can further improve the system and achieve competitive performance with Deep Neural Network / Hidden Markov Model (DNN/HMM) systems on limited data.
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