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Prescriptive process monitoring methods seek to optimize a business process by recommending interventions at runtime to prevent negative outcomes or poorly performing cases. In recent years, various prescriptive process monitoring methods have been proposed. This paper studies existing methods in this field via a Systematic Literature Review (SLR). In order to structure the field, the paper proposes a framework for characterizing prescriptive process monitoring methods according to their performance objective, performance metrics, intervention types, modeling techniques, data inputs, and intervention policies. The SLR provides insights into challenges and areas for future research that could enhance the usefulness and applicability of prescriptive process monitoring methods. The paper highlights the need to validate existing and new methods in real-world settings, to extend the types of interventions beyond those related to the temporal and cost perspectives, and to design policies that take into account causality and second-order effects.

This paper proposes a macroscopic model to describe the equilibrium distribution of passenger arrivals for the morning commute problem in a congested urban rail transit system. We use a macroscopic train operation sub-model developed by Seo et al (2017a,b) to express the interaction between the dynamics of passengers and trains in a simplified manner while maintaining their essential physical relations. The equilibrium conditions of the proposed model are derived and a solution method is provided. The characteristics of the equilibrium are then examined through analytical discussion and numerical examples. As an application of the proposed model, we analyze a simple time-dependent timetable optimization problem with equilibrium constraints and reveal that a "capacity increasing paradox" exists such that a higher dispatch frequency can increase the equilibrium cost. Furthermore, insights into the design of the timetable are obtained and the timetable influence on passengers' equilibrium travel costs are evaluated.

Recently, RobustBench (Croce et al. 2020) has become a widely recognized benchmark for the adversarial robustness of image classification networks. In its most commonly reported sub-task, RobustBench evaluates and ranks the adversarial robustness of trained neural networks on CIFAR10 under AutoAttack (Croce and Hein 2020b) with l-inf perturbations limited to eps = 8/255. With leading scores of the currently best performing models of around 60% of the baseline, it is fair to characterize this benchmark to be quite challenging. Despite its general acceptance in recent literature, we aim to foster discussion about the suitability of RobustBench as a key indicator for robustness which could be generalized to practical applications. Our line of argumentation against this is two-fold and supported by excessive experiments presented in this paper: We argue that I) the alternation of data by AutoAttack with l-inf, eps = 8/255 is unrealistically strong, resulting in close to perfect detection rates of adversarial samples even by simple detection algorithms and human observers. We also show that other attack methods are much harder to detect while achieving similar success rates. II) That results on low-resolution data sets like CIFAR10 do not generalize well to higher resolution images as gradient-based attacks appear to become even more detectable with increasing resolutions.

High-fidelity, AI-based simulated classroom systems enable teachers to rehearse effective teaching strategies. However, dialogue-oriented open-ended conversations such as teaching a student about scale factor can be difficult to model. This paper presents a high-fidelity, AI-based classroom simulator to help teachers rehearse research-based mathematical questioning skills. We take a human centered approach to designing our system, relying advances in deep-learning, uncertainty quantification and natural language processing while acknowledging the limitations of conversational agents for specific pedagogical needs. Using experts' input directly during the simulation, we demonstrate how conversation success rate and high user satisfaction can be achieved.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Current deep learning research is dominated by benchmark evaluation. A method is regarded as favorable if it empirically performs well on the dedicated test set. This mentality is seamlessly reflected in the resurfacing area of continual learning, where consecutively arriving sets of benchmark data are investigated. The core challenge is framed as protecting previously acquired representations from being catastrophically forgotten due to the iterative parameter updates. However, comparison of individual methods is nevertheless treated in isolation from real world application and typically judged by monitoring accumulated test set performance. The closed world assumption remains predominant. It is assumed that during deployment a model is guaranteed to encounter data that stems from the same distribution as used for training. This poses a massive challenge as neural networks are well known to provide overconfident false predictions on unknown instances and break down in the face of corrupted data. In this work we argue that notable lessons from open set recognition, the identification of statistically deviating data outside of the observed dataset, and the adjacent field of active learning, where data is incrementally queried such that the expected performance gain is maximized, are frequently overlooked in the deep learning era. Based on these forgotten lessons, we propose a consolidated view to bridge continual learning, active learning and open set recognition in deep neural networks. Our results show that this not only benefits each individual paradigm, but highlights the natural synergies in a common framework. We empirically demonstrate improvements when alleviating catastrophic forgetting, querying data in active learning, selecting task orders, while exhibiting robust open world application where previously proposed methods fail.

Detection of malicious behavior is a fundamental problem in security. One of the major challenges in using detection systems in practice is in dealing with an overwhelming number of alerts that are triggered by normal behavior (the so-called false positives), obscuring alerts resulting from actual malicious activity. While numerous methods for reducing the scope of this issue have been proposed, ultimately one must still decide how to prioritize which alerts to investigate, and most existing prioritization methods are heuristic, for example, based on suspiciousness or priority scores. We introduce a novel approach for computing a policy for prioritizing alerts using adversarial reinforcement learning. Our approach assumes that the attackers know the full state of the detection system and dynamically choose an optimal attack as a function of this state, as well as of the alert prioritization policy. The first step of our approach is to capture the interaction between the defender and attacker in a game theoretic model. To tackle the computational complexity of solving this game to obtain a dynamic stochastic alert prioritization policy, we propose an adversarial reinforcement learning framework. In this framework, we use neural reinforcement learning to compute best response policies for both the defender and the adversary to an arbitrary stochastic policy of the other. We then use these in a double-oracle framework to obtain an approximate equilibrium of the game, which in turn yields a robust stochastic policy for the defender. Extensive experiments using case studies in fraud and intrusion detection demonstrate that our approach is effective in creating robust alert prioritization policies.

Person re-identification (re-ID) has attracted much attention recently due to its great importance in video surveillance. In general, distance metrics used to identify two person images are expected to be robust under various appearance changes. However, our work observes the extreme vulnerability of existing distance metrics to adversarial examples, generated by simply adding human-imperceptible perturbations to person images. Hence, the security danger is dramatically increased when deploying commercial re-ID systems in video surveillance, especially considering the highly strict requirement of public safety. Although adversarial examples have been extensively applied for classification analysis, it is rarely studied in metric analysis like person re-identification. The most likely reason is the natural gap between the training and testing of re-ID networks, that is, the predictions of a re-ID network cannot be directly used during testing without an effective metric. In this work, we bridge the gap by proposing Adversarial Metric Attack, a parallel methodology to adversarial classification attacks, which can effectively generate adversarial examples for re-ID. Comprehensive experiments clearly reveal the adversarial effects in re-ID systems. Moreover, by benchmarking various adversarial settings, we expect that our work can facilitate the development of robust feature learning with the experimental conclusions we have drawn.

Colorizing a given gray-level image is an important task in the media and advertising industry. Due to the ambiguity inherent to colorization (many shades are often plausible), recent approaches started to explicitly model diversity. However, one of the most obvious artifacts, structural inconsistency, is rarely considered by existing methods which predict chrominance independently for every pixel. To address this issue, we develop a conditional random field based variational auto-encoder formulation which is able to achieve diversity while taking into account structural consistency. Moreover, we introduce a controllability mecha- nism that can incorporate external constraints from diverse sources in- cluding a user interface. Compared to existing baselines, we demonstrate that our method obtains more diverse and globally consistent coloriza- tions on the LFW, LSUN-Church and ILSVRC-2015 datasets.

We introduce MilkQA, a question answering dataset from the dairy domain dedicated to the study of consumer questions. The dataset contains 2,657 pairs of questions and answers, written in the Portuguese language and originally collected by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa). All questions were motivated by real situations and written by thousands of authors with very different backgrounds and levels of literacy, while answers were elaborated by specialists from Embrapa's customer service. Our dataset was filtered and anonymized by three human annotators. Consumer questions are a challenging kind of question that is usually employed as a form of seeking information. Although several question answering datasets are available, most of such resources are not suitable for research on answer selection models for consumer questions. We aim to fill this gap by making MilkQA publicly available. We study the behavior of four answer selection models on MilkQA: two baseline models and two convolutional neural network archictetures. Our results show that MilkQA poses real challenges to computational models, particularly due to linguistic characteristics of its questions and to their unusually longer lengths. Only one of the experimented models gives reasonable results, at the cost of high computational requirements.