Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an estimate of the posterior prediction variance, the latter being used to produce Bayesian credibility intervals. Interpreting these intervals relies on the Gaussianity of the simulation model as well as the well-specification of the priors which are not always appropriate. We propose to address this issue with the help of conformal prediction. In the present work, a method for building adaptive cross-conformal prediction intervals is proposed by weighting the non-conformity score with the posterior standard deviation of the GP. The resulting conformal prediction intervals exhibit a level of adaptivity akin to Bayesian credibility sets and display a significant correlation with the surrogate model local approximation error, while being free from the underlying model assumptions and having frequentist coverage guarantees. These estimators can thus be used for evaluating the quality of a GP surrogate model and can assist a decision-maker in the choice of the best prior for the specific application of the GP. The performance of the method is illustrated through a panel of numerical examples based on various reference databases. Moreover, the potential applicability of the method is demonstrated in the context of surrogate modeling of an expensive-to-evaluate simulator of the clogging phenomenon in steam generators of nuclear reactors.
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Gaussian Processes (GP) have become popular machine learning methods for kernel based learning on datasets with complicated covariance structures. In this paper, we present a novel extension to the GP framework using a contaminated normal likelihood function to better account for heteroscedastic variance and outlier noise. We propose a scalable inference algorithm based on the Sparse Variational Gaussian Process (SVGP) method for fitting sparse Gaussian process regression models with contaminated normal noise on large datasets. We examine an application to geomagnetic ground perturbations, where the state-of-art prediction model is based on neural networks. We show that our approach yields shorter predictions intervals for similar coverage and accuracy when compared to an artificial dense neural network baseline.
Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with latent processes endowed with a non-linear diffusion process prior are intractable problems. We build upon work within variational inference, approximating the posterior process as a linear diffusion process, and point out pathologies in the approach. We propose an alternative parameterization of the Gaussian variational process using a site-based exponential family description. This allows us to trade a slow inference algorithm with fixed-point iterations for a fast algorithm for convex optimization akin to natural gradient descent, which also provides a better objective for learning model parameters.
We present a distributed conjugate gradient method for distributed optimization problems, where each agent computes an optimal solution of the problem locally without any central computation or coordination, while communicating with its immediate, one-hop neighbors over a communication network. Each agent updates its local problem variable using an estimate of the average conjugate direction across the network, computed via a dynamic consensus approach. Our algorithm enables the agents to use uncoordinated step-sizes. We prove convergence of the local variable of each agent to the optimal solution of the aggregate optimization problem, without requiring decreasing step-sizes. In addition, we demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithm in distributed state estimation problems, and its robust counterparts, where we show its performance compared to existing distributed first-order optimization methods.
In statistics and machine learning, logistic regression is a widely-used supervised learning technique primarily employed for binary classification tasks. When the number of observations greatly exceeds the number of predictor variables, we present a simple, randomized sampling-based algorithm for logistic regression problem that guarantees high-quality approximations to both the estimated probabilities and the overall discrepancy of the model. Our analysis builds upon two simple structural conditions that boil down to randomized matrix multiplication, a fundamental and well-understood primitive of randomized numerical linear algebra. We analyze the properties of estimated probabilities of logistic regression when leverage scores are used to sample observations, and prove that accurate approximations can be achieved with a sample whose size is much smaller than the total number of observations. To further validate our theoretical findings, we conduct comprehensive empirical evaluations. Overall, our work sheds light on the potential of using randomized sampling approaches to efficiently approximate the estimated probabilities in logistic regression, offering a practical and computationally efficient solution for large-scale datasets.
Federated learning (FL) goes beyond traditional, centralized machine learning by distributing model training among a large collection of edge clients. These clients cooperatively train a global, e.g., cloud-hosted, model without disclosing their local, private training data. The global model is then shared among all the participants which use it for local predictions. In this paper, we put forward a novel attacker model aiming at turning FL systems into covert channels to implement a stealth communication infrastructure. The main intuition is that, during federated training, a malicious sender can poison the global model by submitting purposely crafted examples. Although the effect of the model poisoning is negligible to other participants, and does not alter the overall model performance, it can be observed by a malicious receiver and used to transmit a single bit.
Multi-goal robot manipulation tasks with sparse rewards are difficult for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms due to the inefficiency in collecting successful experiences. Recent algorithms such as Hindsight Experience Replay (HER) expedite learning by taking advantage of failed trajectories and replacing the desired goal with one of the achieved states so that any failed trajectory can be utilized as a contribution to learning. However, HER uniformly chooses failed trajectories, without taking into account which ones might be the most valuable for learning. In this paper, we address this problem and propose a novel approach Contact Energy Based Prioritization~(CEBP) to select the samples from the replay buffer based on rich information due to contact, leveraging the touch sensors in the gripper of the robot and object displacement. Our prioritization scheme favors sampling of contact-rich experiences, which are arguably the ones providing the largest amount of information. We evaluate our proposed approach on various sparse reward robotic tasks and compare them with the state-of-the-art methods. We show that our method surpasses or performs on par with those methods on robot manipulation tasks. Finally, we deploy the trained policy from our method to a real Franka robot for a pick-and-place task. We observe that the robot can solve the task successfully. The videos and code are publicly available at: //erdiphd.github.io/HER_force
Graph contrastive learning (GCL) aligns node representations by classifying node pairs into positives and negatives using a selection process that typically relies on establishing correspondences within two augmented graphs. The conventional GCL approaches incorporate negative samples uniformly in the contrastive loss, resulting in the equal treatment negative nodes, regardless of their proximity to the true positive. In this paper, we present a Smoothed Graph Contrastive Learning model (SGCL), which leverages the geometric structure of augmented graphs to inject proximity information associated with positive/negative pairs in the contrastive loss, thus significantly regularizing the learning process. The proposed SGCL adjusts the penalties associated with node pairs in the contrastive loss by incorporating three distinct smoothing techniques that result in proximity aware positives and negatives. To enhance scalability for large-scale graphs, the proposed framework incorporates a graph batch-generating strategy that partitions the given graphs into multiple subgraphs, facilitating efficient training in separate batches. Through extensive experimentation in the unsupervised setting on various benchmarks, particularly those of large scale, we demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework against recent baselines.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
We investigate a lattice-structured LSTM model for Chinese NER, which encodes a sequence of input characters as well as all potential words that match a lexicon. Compared with character-based methods, our model explicitly leverages word and word sequence information. Compared with word-based methods, lattice LSTM does not suffer from segmentation errors. Gated recurrent cells allow our model to choose the most relevant characters and words from a sentence for better NER results. Experiments on various datasets show that lattice LSTM outperforms both word-based and character-based LSTM baselines, achieving the best results.
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