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We develop a new, spectral approach for identifying and estimating average counterfactual outcomes under a low-rank factor model with short panel data and general outcome missingness patterns. Applications include event studies and studies of outcomes of "matches" between agents of two types, e.g. workers and firms, typically conducted under less-flexible Two-Way-Fixed-Effects (TWFE) models of outcomes. Given an infinite population of units and a finite number of outcomes, we show our approach identifies all counterfactual outcome means, including those not estimable by existing methods, if a particular graph constructed based on overlaps in observed outcomes between subpopulations is connected. Our analogous, computationally efficient estimation procedure yields consistent, asymptotically normal estimates of counterfactual outcome means under fixed-$T$ (number of outcomes), large-$N$ (sample size) asymptotics. In a semi-synthetic simulation study based on matched employer-employee data, our estimator has lower bias and only slightly higher variance than a TWFE-model-based estimator when estimating average log-wages.

As details are missing in most representations of structures, the lack of controllability to more information is one of the major weaknesses in structure-based controllable point cloud generation. It is observable that definitions of details and structures are subjective. Details can be treated as structures on small scales. To represent structures in different scales at the same time, we present a graph-based representation of structures called the Multiscale Structure Graph (MSG). Given structures in multiple scales, similar patterns of local structures can be found at different scales, positions, and angles. The knowledge learned from a regional structure pattern shall be transferred to other similar patterns. An encoding and generation mechanism, namely the Multiscale Structure-based Point Cloud Generator (MSPCG) is proposed, which can simultaneously learn point cloud generation from local patterns with miscellaneous spatial properties. The proposed method supports multiscale editions on point clouds by editing the MSG. By generating point clouds from local structures and learning simultaneously in multiple scales, our MSPCG has better generalization ability and scalability. Trained on the ShapeNet, our MSPCG can generate point clouds from a given structure for unseen categories and indoor scenes. The experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

Modeling open hole failure of composites is a complex task, consisting in a highly nonlinear response with interacting failure modes. Numerical modeling of this phenomenon has traditionally been based on the finite element method, but requires to tradeoff between high fidelity and computational cost. To mitigate this shortcoming, recent work has leveraged machine learning to predict the strength of open hole composite specimens. Here, we also propose using data-based models but to tackle open hole composite failure from a classification point of view. More specifically, we show how to train surrogate models to learn the ultimate failure envelope of an open hole composite plate under in-plane loading. To achieve this, we solve the classification problem via support vector machine (SVM) and test different classifiers by changing the SVM kernel function. The flexibility of kernel-based SVM also allows us to integrate the recently developed quantum kernels in our algorithm and compare them with the standard radial basis function (RBF) kernel. Finally, thanks to kernel-target alignment optimization, we tune the free parameters of all kernels to best separate safe and failure-inducing loading states. The results show classification accuracies higher than 90% for RBF, especially after alignment, followed closely by the quantum kernel classifiers.

Early identification of drought stress in crops is vital for implementing effective mitigation measures and reducing yield loss. Non-invasive imaging techniques hold immense potential by capturing subtle physiological changes in plants under water deficit. Sensor based imaging data serves as a rich source of information for machine learning and deep learning algorithms, facilitating further analysis aimed at identifying drought stress. While these approaches yield favorable results, real-time field applications requires algorithms specifically designed for the complexities of natural agricultural conditions. Our work proposes a novel deep learning framework for classifying drought stress in potato crops captured by UAVs in natural settings. The novelty lies in the synergistic combination of a pre-trained network with carefully designed custom layers. This architecture leverages feature extraction capabilities of the pre-trained network while the custom layers enable targeted dimensionality reduction and enhanced regularization, ultimately leading to improved performance. A key innovation of our work involves the integration of Gradient-Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM), an explainability technique. Grad-CAM sheds light on the internal workings of the deep learning model, typically referred to as a black box. By visualizing the focus areas of the model within the images, Grad-CAM fosters interpretability and builds trust in the decision-making process of the model. Our proposed framework achieves superior performance, particularly with the DenseNet121 pre-trained network, reaching a precision of 97% to identify the stressed class with an overall accuracy of 91%. Comparative analysis of existing state-of-the-art object detection algorithms reveals the superiority of our approach in significantly higher precision and accuracy.

Traditional optimization-based planners, while effective, suffer from high computational costs, resulting in slow trajectory generation. A successful strategy to reduce computation time involves using Imitation Learning (IL) to develop fast neural network (NN) policies from those planners, which are treated as expert demonstrators. Although the resulting NN policies are effective at quickly generating trajectories similar to those from the expert, (1) their output does not explicitly account for dynamic feasibility, and (2) the policies do not accommodate changes in the constraints different from those used during training. To overcome these limitations, we propose Constraint-Guided Diffusion (CGD), a novel IL-based approach to trajectory planning. CGD leverages a hybrid learning/online optimization scheme that combines diffusion policies with a surrogate efficient optimization problem, enabling the generation of collision-free, dynamically feasible trajectories. The key ideas of CGD include dividing the original challenging optimization problem solved by the expert into two more manageable sub-problems: (a) efficiently finding collision-free paths, and (b) determining a dynamically-feasible time-parametrization for those paths to obtain a trajectory. Compared to conventional neural network architectures, we demonstrate through numerical evaluations significant improvements in performance and dynamic feasibility under scenarios with new constraints never encountered during training.

Surrogate neural network-based partial differential equation (PDE) solvers have the potential to solve PDEs in an accelerated manner, but they are largely limited to systems featuring fixed domain sizes, geometric layouts, and boundary conditions. We propose Specialized Neural Accelerator-Powered Domain Decomposition Methods (SNAP-DDM), a DDM-based approach to PDE solving in which subdomain problems containing arbitrary boundary conditions and geometric parameters are accurately solved using an ensemble of specialized neural operators. We tailor SNAP-DDM to 2D electromagnetics and fluidic flow problems and show how innovations in network architecture and loss function engineering can produce specialized surrogate subdomain solvers with near unity accuracy. We utilize these solvers with standard DDM algorithms to accurately solve freeform electromagnetics and fluids problems featuring a wide range of domain sizes.

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.