One of the possible objectives when designing experiments is to build or formulate a model for predicting future observations. When the primary objective is prediction, some typical approaches in the planning phase are to use well-established small-sample experimental designs in the design phase (e.g., Definitive Screening Designs) and to construct predictive models using widely used model selection algorithms such as LASSO. These design and analytic strategies, however, do not guarantee high prediction performance, partly due to the small sample sizes that prevent partitioning the data into training and validation sets, a strategy that is commonly used in machine learning models to improve out-of-sample prediction. In this work, we propose a novel framework for building high-performance predictive models from experimental data that capitalizes on the advantage of having both training and validation sets. However, instead of partitioning the data into two mutually exclusive subsets, we propose a weighting scheme based on the fractional random weight bootstrap that emulates data partitioning by assigning anti-correlated training and validation weights to each observation. The proposed methodology, called Self-Validated Ensemble Modeling (SVEM), proceeds in the spirit of bagging so that it iterates through bootstraps of anti-correlated weights and fitted models, with the final SVEM model being the average of the bootstrapped models. We investigate the performance of the SVEM algorithm with several model-building approaches such as stepwise regression, Lasso, and the Dantzig selector. Finally, through simulation and case studies, we show that SVEM generally generates models with better prediction performance in comparison to one-shot model selection approaches.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Causal structure learning is a key problem in many domains. Causal structures can be learnt by performing experiments on the system of interest. We address the largely unexplored problem of designing a batch of experiments that each simultaneously intervene on multiple variables. While potentially more informative than the commonly considered single-variable interventions, selecting such interventions is algorithmically much more challenging, due to the doubly-exponential combinatorial search space over sets of composite interventions. In this paper, we develop efficient algorithms for optimizing different objective functions quantifying the informativeness of a budget-constrained batch of experiments. By establishing novel submodularity properties of these objectives, we provide approximation guarantees for our algorithms. Our algorithms empirically perform superior to both random interventions and algorithms that only select single-variable interventions.
This paper focuses on training implicit models of infinite layers. Specifically, previous works employ implicit differentiation and solve the exact gradient for the backward propagation. However, is it necessary to compute such an exact but expensive gradient for training? In this work, we propose a novel gradient estimate for implicit models, named phantom gradient, that 1) forgoes the costly computation of the exact gradient; and 2) provides an update direction empirically preferable to the implicit model training. We theoretically analyze the condition under which an ascent direction of the loss landscape could be found, and provide two specific instantiations of the phantom gradient based on the damped unrolling and Neumann series. Experiments on large-scale tasks demonstrate that these lightweight phantom gradients significantly accelerate the backward passes in training implicit models by roughly 1.7 times, and even boost the performance over approaches based on the exact gradient on ImageNet.
Solving Large Steiner Tree Problems in Graphs for Cost-Efficient Fiber-To-The-Home Network Expansion
The expansion of Fiber-To-The-Home (FTTH) networks creates high costs due to expensive excavation procedures. Optimizing the planning process and minimizing the cost of the earth excavation work therefore lead to large savings. Mathematically, the FTTH network problem can be described as a minimum Steiner Tree problem. Even though the Steiner Tree problem has already been investigated intensively in the last decades, it might be further optimized with the help of new computing paradigms and emerging approaches. This work studies upcoming technologies, such as Quantum Annealing, Simulated Annealing and nature-inspired methods like Evolutionary Algorithms or slime-mold-based optimization. Additionally, we investigate partitioning and simplifying methods. Evaluated on several real-life problem instances, we could outperform a traditional, widely-used baseline (NetworkX Approximate Solver) on most of the domains. Prior partitioning of the initial graph and the presented slime-mold-based approach were especially valuable for a cost-efficient approximation. Quantum Annealing seems promising, but was limited by the number of available qubits.
Rapid detection of spatial events that propagate across a sensor network is of wide interest in many modern applications. In particular, in communications, radar, environmental monitoring, and biosurveillance, we may observe propagating fields or particles. In this paper, we propose Bayesian single and multiple change-point detection procedures for the rapid detection of propagating spatial events. It is assumed that the spatial event propagates across a network of sensors according to the physical properties of the source causing the event. The multi-sensor system configuration is arbitrary and sensors may be mobile. We begin by considering a single spatial event and are interested in detecting this event as quickly as possible, while controlling the probability of false alarm. Using a dynamic programming framework we derive the structure of the optimal procedure, which minimizes the average detection delay (ADD) subject to a false alarm probability upper bound. In the rare event regime, the optimal procedure converges to a more practical threshold test on the posterior probability of the change point. A convenient recursive computation of this posterior probability is derived by using the propagation pattern of the spatial event. The ADD of the posterior probability threshold test is analyzed in the asymptotic regime, and specific analysis is conducted in the setting of detecting attenuating random signals. Then, we show how the proposed procedure is easy to extend for detecting multiple propagating spatial events in parallel. A method that provides false discovery rate (FDR) control is proposed. In the simulation section, it is clearly demonstrated that exploiting the spatial properties of the event decreases the ADD compared to procedures that do not utilize this information, even under model mismatch.
Transformer-based language models such as BERT have outperformed previous models on a large number of English benchmarks, but their evaluation is often limited to English or a small number of well-resourced languages. In this work, we evaluate monolingual, multilingual, and randomly initialized language models from the BERT family on a variety of Uralic languages including Estonian, Finnish, Hungarian, Erzya, Moksha, Karelian, Livvi, Komi Permyak, Komi Zyrian, Northern S\'ami, and Skolt S\'ami. When monolingual models are available (currently only et, fi, hu), these perform better on their native language, but in general they transfer worse than multilingual models or models of genetically unrelated languages that share the same character set. Remarkably, straightforward transfer of high-resource models, even without special efforts toward hyperparameter optimization, yields what appear to be state of the art POS and NER tools for the minority Uralic languages where there is sufficient data for finetuning.
Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear, or simple parametric, models are often not sufficient to describe complex relationships between input variables and a response. Such relationships can be better described through flexible approaches such as neural networks, but this results in less interpretable models and potential overfitting. Alternatively, specific parametric nonlinear functions can be used, but the specification of such functions is in general complicated. In this paper, we introduce a flexible approach for the construction and selection of highly flexible nonlinear parametric regression models. Nonlinear features are generated hierarchically, similarly to deep learning, but have additional flexibility on the possible types of features to be considered. This flexibility, combined with variable selection, allows us to find a small set of important features and thereby more interpretable models. Within the space of possible functions, a Bayesian approach, introducing priors for functions based on their complexity, is considered. A genetically modified mode jumping Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is adopted to perform Bayesian inference and estimate posterior probabilities for model averaging. In various applications, we illustrate how our approach is used to obtain meaningful nonlinear models. Additionally, we compare its predictive performance with several machine learning algorithms.
Corpus-based set expansion (i.e., finding the "complete" set of entities belonging to the same semantic class, based on a given corpus and a tiny set of seeds) is a critical task in knowledge discovery. It may facilitate numerous downstream applications, such as information extraction, taxonomy induction, question answering, and web search. To discover new entities in an expanded set, previous approaches either make one-time entity ranking based on distributional similarity, or resort to iterative pattern-based bootstrapping. The core challenge for these methods is how to deal with noisy context features derived from free-text corpora, which may lead to entity intrusion and semantic drifting. In this study, we propose a novel framework, SetExpan, which tackles this problem, with two techniques: (1) a context feature selection method that selects clean context features for calculating entity-entity distributional similarity, and (2) a ranking-based unsupervised ensemble method for expanding entity set based on denoised context features. Experiments on three datasets show that SetExpan is robust and outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods in terms of mean average precision.
Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA) is a popular topic model. Given the fact that the input corpus of LDA algorithms consists of millions to billions of tokens, the LDA training process is very time-consuming, which may prevent the usage of LDA in many scenarios, e.g., online service. GPUs have benefited modern machine learning algorithms and big data analysis as they can provide high memory bandwidth and computation power. Therefore, many frameworks, e.g. Ten- sorFlow, Caffe, CNTK, support to use GPUs for accelerating the popular machine learning data-intensive algorithms. However, we observe that LDA solutions on GPUs are not satisfying. In this paper, we present CuLDA_CGS, a GPU-based efficient and scalable approach to accelerate large-scale LDA problems. CuLDA_CGS is designed to efficiently solve LDA problems at high throughput. To it, we first delicately design workload partition and synchronization mechanism to exploit the benefits of mul- tiple GPUs. Then, we offload the LDA sampling process to each individual GPU by optimizing from the sampling algorithm, par- allelization, and data compression perspectives. Evaluations show that compared with state-of-the-art LDA solutions, CuLDA_CGS outperforms them by a large margin (up to 7.3X) on a single GPU. CuLDA_CGS is able to achieve extra 3.0X speedup on 4 GPUs. The source code is publicly available on //github.com/cuMF/ CuLDA_CGS.
Computer vision technologies are very attractive for practical applications running on embedded systems. For such an application, it is desirable for the deployed algorithms to run in high-speed and require no offline training. To develop a single-target tracking algorithm with these properties, we propose an ensemble of the kernelized correlation filters (KCF), we call it EnKCF. A committee of KCFs is specifically designed to address the variations in scale and translation of moving objects. To guarantee a high-speed run-time performance, we deploy each of KCFs in turn, instead of applying multiple KCFs to each frame. To minimize any potential drifts between individual KCFs transition, we developed a particle filter. Experimental results showed that the performance of ours is, on average, 70.10% for precision at 20 pixels, 53.00% for success rate for the OTB100 data, and 54.50% and 40.2% for the UAV123 data. Experimental results showed that our method is better than other high-speed trackers over 5% on precision on 20 pixels and 10-20% on AUC on average. Moreover, our implementation ran at 340 fps for the OTB100 and at 416 fps for the UAV123 dataset that is faster than DCF (292 fps) for the OTB100 and KCF (292 fps) for the UAV123. To increase flexibility of the proposed EnKCF running on various platforms, we also explored different levels of deep convolutional features.
In order to answer natural language questions over knowledge graphs, most processing pipelines involve entity and relation linking. Traditionally, entity linking and relation linking has been performed either as dependent sequential tasks or independent parallel tasks. In this paper, we propose a framework called "EARL", which performs entity linking and relation linking as a joint single task. EARL uses a graph connection based solution to the problem. We model the linking task as an instance of the Generalised Travelling Salesman Problem (GTSP) and use GTSP approximate algorithm solutions. We later develop EARL which uses a pair-wise graph-distance based solution to the problem.The system determines the best semantic connection between all keywords of the question by referring to a knowledge graph. This is achieved by exploiting the "connection density" between entity candidates and relation candidates. The "connection density" based solution performs at par with the approximate GTSP solution.We have empirically evaluated the framework on a dataset with 5000 questions. Our system surpasses state-of-the-art scores for entity linking task by reporting an accuracy of 0.65 to 0.40 from the next best entity linker.
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