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We present a unified framework for deriving PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Unlike most previous literature on this topic, our bounds are anytime-valid (i.e., time-uniform), meaning that they hold at all stopping times, not only for a fixed sample size. Our approach combines four tools in the following order: (a) nonnegative supermartingales or reverse submartingales, (b) the method of mixtures, (c) the Donsker-Varadhan formula (or other convex duality principles), and (d) Ville's inequality. Our main result is a PAC-Bayes theorem which holds for a wide class of discrete stochastic processes. We show how this result implies time-uniform versions of well-known classical PAC-Bayes bounds, such as those of Seeger, McAllester, Maurer, and Catoni, in addition to many recent bounds. We also present several novel bounds. Our framework also enables us to relax traditional assumptions; in particular, we consider nonstationary loss functions and non-i.i.d. data. In sum, we unify the derivation of past bounds and ease the search for future bounds: one may simply check if our supermartingale or submartingale conditions are met and, if so, be guaranteed a (time-uniform) PAC-Bayes bound.

As a second-order method, the Natural Gradient Descent (NGD) has the ability to accelerate training of neural networks. However, due to the prohibitive computational and memory costs of computing and inverting the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), efficient approximations are necessary to make NGD scalable to Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Many such approximations have been attempted. The most sophisticated of these is KFAC, which approximates the FIM as a block-diagonal matrix, where each block corresponds to a layer of the neural network. By doing so, KFAC ignores the interactions between different layers. In this work, we investigate the interest of restoring some low-frequency interactions between the layers by means of two-level methods. Inspired from domain decomposition, several two-level corrections to KFAC using different coarse spaces are proposed and assessed. The obtained results show that incorporating the layer interactions in this fashion does not really improve the performance of KFAC. This suggests that it is safe to discard the off-diagonal blocks of the FIM, since the block-diagonal approach is sufficiently robust, accurate and economical in computation time.

As control engineering methods are applied to increasingly complex systems, data-driven approaches for system identification appear as a promising alternative to physics-based modeling. While many of these approaches rely on the availability of state measurements, the states of a complex system are often not directly measurable. It may then be necessary to jointly estimate the dynamics and a latent state, making it considerably more challenging to design controllers with performance guarantees. This paper proposes a novel method for the computation of an optimal input trajectory for unknown nonlinear systems with latent states. Probabilistic performance guarantees are derived for the resulting input trajectory, and an approach to validate the performance of arbitrary control laws is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical simulation.

In this contribution, a wave equation with a time-dependent variable-order fractional damping term and a nonlinear source is considered. Avoiding the circumstances of expressing the nonlinear variable-order fractional wave equations via closed-form expressions in terms of special functions, we investigate the existence and uniqueness of this problem with Rothe's method. First, the weak formulation for the considered wave problem is proposed. Then, the uniqueness of a solution is established by employing Gr\"onwall's lemma. The Rothe scheme's basic idea is to use Rothe functions to extend the solutions on single-time steps over the entire time frame. Inspired by that, we next introduce a uniform mesh time-discrete scheme based on a discrete convolution approximation in the backward sense. By applying some reasonable assumptions to the given data, we can predict a priori estimates for the time-discrete solution. Employing these estimates side by side with Rothe functions leads to proof of the solution's existence over the whole time interval. Finally, the full discretisation of the problem is introduced by invoking Galerkin spectral techniques in the spatial direction, and numerical examples are given.

Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from using traditional methods to infer potential causal structures from observational data to the field of pattern recognition involved in deep learning. The rapid accumulation of massive data promotes the emergence of causal search methods with brilliant scalability. Existing summaries of causal discovery methods mainly focus on traditional methods based on constraints, scores and FCMs, there is a lack of perfect sorting and elaboration for deep learning-based methods, also lacking some considers and exploration of causal discovery methods from the perspective of variable paradigms. Therefore, we divide the possible causal discovery tasks into three types according to the variable paradigm and give the definitions of the three tasks respectively, define and instantiate the relevant datasets for each task and the final causal model constructed at the same time, then reviews the main existing causal discovery methods for different tasks. Finally, we propose some roadmaps from different perspectives for the current research gaps in the field of causal discovery and point out future research directions.

We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.

Images can convey rich semantics and induce various emotions in viewers. Recently, with the rapid advancement of emotional intelligence and the explosive growth of visual data, extensive research efforts have been dedicated to affective image content analysis (AICA). In this survey, we will comprehensively review the development of AICA in the recent two decades, especially focusing on the state-of-the-art methods with respect to three main challenges -- the affective gap, perception subjectivity, and label noise and absence. We begin with an introduction to the key emotion representation models that have been widely employed in AICA and description of available datasets for performing evaluation with quantitative comparison of label noise and dataset bias. We then summarize and compare the representative approaches on (1) emotion feature extraction, including both handcrafted and deep features, (2) learning methods on dominant emotion recognition, personalized emotion prediction, emotion distribution learning, and learning from noisy data or few labels, and (3) AICA based applications. Finally, we discuss some challenges and promising research directions in the future, such as image content and context understanding, group emotion clustering, and viewer-image interaction.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.