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A functional dynamic factor model for time-dependent functional data is proposed. We decompose a functional time series into a predictive low-dimensional common component consisting of a finite number of factors and an infinite-dimensional idiosyncratic component that has no predictive power. The conditions under which all model parameters, including the number of factors, become identifiable are discussed. Our identification results lead to a simple-to-use two-stage estimation procedure based on functional principal components. As part of our estimation procedure, we solve the separation problem between the common and idiosyncratic functional components. In particular, we obtain a consistent information criterion that provides joint estimates of the number of factors and dynamic lags of the common component. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our method in a simulation study and to the problem of modeling and predicting yield curves. In an out-of-sample experiment, we demonstrate that our model performs well compared to the widely used term structure Nelson-Siegel model for yield curves.

Recent advances in quantized compressed sensing and high-dimensional estimation have shown that signal recovery is even feasible under strong non-linear distortions in the observation process. An important characteristic of associated guarantees is uniformity, i.e., recovery succeeds for an entire class of structured signals with a fixed measurement ensemble. However, despite significant results in various special cases, a general understanding of uniform recovery from non-linear observations is still missing. This paper develops a unified approach to this problem under the assumption of i.i.d. sub-Gaussian measurement vectors. Our main result shows that a simple least-squares estimator with any convex constraint can serve as a universal recovery strategy, which is outlier robust and does not require explicit knowledge of the underlying non-linearity. Based on empirical process theory, a key technical novelty is an approximative increment condition that can be implemented for all common types of non-linear models. This flexibility allows us to apply our approach to a variety of problems in non-linear compressed sensing and high-dimensional statistics, leading to several new and improved guarantees. Each of these applications is accompanied by a conceptually simple and systematic proof, which does not rely on any deeper properties of the observation model. On the other hand, known local stability properties can be incorporated into our framework in a plug-and-play manner, thereby implying near-optimal error bounds.

We study the class of first-order locally-balanced Metropolis--Hastings algorithms introduced in Livingstone & Zanella (2021). To choose a specific algorithm within the class the user must select a balancing function $g:\mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$ satisfying $g(t) = tg(1/t)$, and a noise distribution for the proposal increment. Popular choices within the class are the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm and the recently introduced Barker proposal. We first establish a universal limiting optimal acceptance rate of 57% and scaling of $n^{-1/3}$ as the dimension $n$ tends to infinity among all members of the class under mild smoothness assumptions on $g$ and when the target distribution for the algorithm is of the product form. In particular we obtain an explicit expression for the asymptotic efficiency of an arbitrary algorithm in the class, as measured by expected squared jumping distance. We then consider how to optimise this expression under various constraints. We derive an optimal choice of noise distribution for the Barker proposal, optimal choice of balancing function under a Gaussian noise distribution, and optimal choice of first-order locally-balanced algorithm among the entire class, which turns out to depend on the specific target distribution. Numerical simulations confirm our theoretical findings and in particular show that a bi-modal choice of noise distribution in the Barker proposal gives rise to a practical algorithm that is consistently more efficient than the original Gaussian version.

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate the risk as well as allow individual institutions to monitor their vulnerability to market movements. One popular measure of systemic risk is the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR), proposed in Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011). We develop a methodology to estimate CoVaR semi-parametrically within the framework of multivariate extreme value theory. According to its definition, CoVaR can be viewed as a high quantile of the conditional distribution of one institution's (or the financial system) potential loss, where the conditioning event corresponds to having large losses in the financial system (or the given financial institution). We relate this conditional distribution to the tail dependence function between the system and the institution, then use parametric modelling of the tail dependence function to address data sparsity in the joint tail regions. We prove consistency of the proposed estimator, and illustrate its performance via simulation studies and a real data example.

We propose a novel approach to disentangle the generative factors of variation underlying a given set of observations. Our method builds upon the idea that the (unknown) low-dimensional manifold underlying the data space can be explicitly modeled as a product of submanifolds. This gives rise to a new definition of disentanglement, and to a novel weakly-supervised algorithm for recovering the unknown explanatory factors behind the data. At training time, our algorithm only requires pairs of non i.i.d. data samples whose elements share at least one, possibly multidimensional, generative factor of variation. We require no knowledge on the nature of these transformations, and do not make any limiting assumption on the properties of each subspace. Our approach is easy to implement, and can be successfully applied to different kinds of data (from images to 3D surfaces) undergoing arbitrary transformations. In addition to standard synthetic benchmarks, we showcase our method in challenging real-world applications, where we compare favorably with the state of the art.

In this monograph, I introduce the basic concepts of Online Learning through a modern view of Online Convex Optimization. Here, online learning refers to the framework of regret minimization under worst-case assumptions. I present first-order and second-order algorithms for online learning with convex losses, in Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings. All the algorithms are clearly presented as instantiation of Online Mirror Descent or Follow-The-Regularized-Leader and their variants. Particular attention is given to the issue of tuning the parameters of the algorithms and learning in unbounded domains, through adaptive and parameter-free online learning algorithms. Non-convex losses are dealt through convex surrogate losses and through randomization. The bandit setting is also briefly discussed, touching on the problem of adversarial and stochastic multi-armed bandits. These notes do not require prior knowledge of convex analysis and all the required mathematical tools are rigorously explained. Moreover, all the proofs have been carefully chosen to be as simple and as short as possible.

Deep reinforcement learning is the combination of reinforcement learning (RL) and deep learning. This field of research has been able to solve a wide range of complex decision-making tasks that were previously out of reach for a machine. Thus, deep RL opens up many new applications in domains such as healthcare, robotics, smart grids, finance, and many more. This manuscript provides an introduction to deep reinforcement learning models, algorithms and techniques. Particular focus is on the aspects related to generalization and how deep RL can be used for practical applications. We assume the reader is familiar with basic machine learning concepts.

Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired density represented by a set of samples. Our approach considers an existing Monte Carlo rendering algorithm as a black box. During a scene-dependent training phase, we learn to generate samples with a desired density in the primary sample space of the rendering algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation. We leverage a recent neural network architecture that was designed to represent real-valued non-volume preserving ('Real NVP') transformations in high dimensional spaces. We use Real NVP to non-linearly warp primary sample space and obtain desired densities. In addition, Real NVP efficiently computes the determinant of the Jacobian of the warp, which is required to implement the change of integration variables implied by the warp. A main advantage of our approach is that it is agnostic of underlying light transport effects, and can be combined with many existing rendering techniques by treating them as a black box. We show that our approach leads to effective variance reduction in several practical scenarios.

This paper addresses the problem of formally verifying desirable properties of neural networks, i.e., obtaining provable guarantees that neural networks satisfy specifications relating their inputs and outputs (robustness to bounded norm adversarial perturbations, for example). Most previous work on this topic was limited in its applicability by the size of the network, network architecture and the complexity of properties to be verified. In contrast, our framework applies to a general class of activation functions and specifications on neural network inputs and outputs. We formulate verification as an optimization problem (seeking to find the largest violation of the specification) and solve a Lagrangian relaxation of the optimization problem to obtain an upper bound on the worst case violation of the specification being verified. Our approach is anytime i.e. it can be stopped at any time and a valid bound on the maximum violation can be obtained. We develop specialized verification algorithms with provable tightness guarantees under special assumptions and demonstrate the practical significance of our general verification approach on a variety of verification tasks.

We present the problem of selecting relevant premises for a proof of a given statement. When stated as a binary classification task for pairs (conjecture, axiom), it can be efficiently solved using artificial neural networks. The key difference between our advance to solve this problem and previous approaches is the use of just functional signatures of premises. To further improve the performance of the model, we use dimensionality reduction technique, to replace long and sparse signature vectors with their compact and dense embedded versions. These are obtained by firstly defining the concept of a context for each functor symbol, and then training a simple neural network to predict the distribution of other functor symbols in the context of this functor. After training the network, the output of its hidden layer is used to construct a lower dimensional embedding of a functional signature (for each premise) with a distributed representation of features. This allows us to use 512-dimensional embeddings for conjecture-axiom pairs, containing enough information about the original statements to reach the accuracy of 76.45% in premise selection task, only with simple two-layer densely connected neural networks.