One of the most important challenges in the financial and cryptocurrency field is accurately predicting cryptocurrency price trends. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) is beneficial in addressing this challenge. Cryptocurrency markets, marked by substantial growth and volatility, attract investors and scholars keen on deciphering and forecasting cryptocurrency price movements. The vast and diverse array of data available for such predictions increases the complexity of the task. In our study, we introduce a novel approach termed hard and soft information fusion (HSIF) to enhance the accuracy of cryptocurrency price movement forecasts. The hard information component of our approach encompasses historical price records alongside technical indicators. Complementing this, the soft data component extracts from X (formerly Twitter), encompassing news headlines and tweets about the cryptocurrency. To use this data, we use the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based sentiment analysis method, financial BERT (FinBERT), which performs best. Finally, our model feeds on the information set including processed hard and soft data. We employ the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model because processing information in both forward and backward directions can capture long-term dependencies in sequential information. Our empirical findings emphasize the superiority of the HSIF approach over models dependent on single-source data by testing on Bitcoin-related data. By fusing hard and soft information on Bitcoin dataset, our model has about 96.8\% accuracy in predicting price movement. Incorporating information enables our model to grasp the influence of social sentiment on price fluctuations, thereby supplementing the technical analysis-based predictions derived from hard information.
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Recovering high-quality depth maps from compressed sources has gained significant attention due to the limitations of consumer-grade depth cameras and the bandwidth restrictions during data transmission. However, current methods still suffer from two challenges. First, bit-depth compression produces a uniform depth representation in regions with subtle variations, hindering the recovery of detailed information. Second, densely distributed random noise reduces the accuracy of estimating the global geometric structure of the scene. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework, termed geometry-decoupled network (GDNet), for compressed depth map super-resolution that decouples the high-quality depth map reconstruction process by handling global and detailed geometric features separately. To be specific, we propose the fine geometry detail encoder (FGDE), which is designed to aggregate fine geometry details in high-resolution low-level image features while simultaneously enriching them with complementary information from low-resolution context-level image features. In addition, we develop the global geometry encoder (GGE) that aims at suppressing noise and extracting global geometric information effectively via constructing compact feature representation in a low-rank space. We conduct experiments on multiple benchmark datasets, demonstrating that our GDNet significantly outperforms current methods in terms of geometric consistency and detail recovery. In the ECCV 2024 AIM Compressed Depth Upsampling Challenge, our solution won the 1st place award. Our codes will be available.
Uncrewed aerial systems have tightly coupled energy and motion dynamics which must be accounted for by onboard planning algorithms. This work proposes a strategy for coupled motion and energy planning using model predictive control (MPC). A reduced-order linear time-invariant model of coupled energy and motion dynamics is presented. Constrained zonotopes are used to represent state and input constraints, and hybrid zonotopes are used to represent non-convex constraints tied to a map of the environment. The structures of these constraint representations are exploited within a mixed-integer quadratic program solver tailored to MPC motion planning problems. Results apply the proposed methodology to coupled motion and energy utilization planning problems for 1) a hybrid-electric vehicle that must restrict engine usage when flying over regions with noise restrictions, and 2) an electric package delivery drone that must track waysets with both position and battery state of charge requirements. By leveraging the structure-exploiting solver, the proposed mixed-integer MPC formulations can be implemented in real time.
Combating money laundering has become increasingly complex with the rise of cybercrime and digitalization of financial transactions. Graph-based machine learning techniques have emerged as promising tools for Anti-Money Laundering (AML) detection, capturing intricate relationships within money laundering networks. However, the effectiveness of AML solutions is hindered by data silos within financial institutions, limiting collaboration and overall efficacy. This research presents a novel privacy-preserving approach for collaborative AML machine learning, facilitating secure data sharing across institutions and borders while preserving privacy and regulatory compliance. Leveraging Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), computations are directly performed on encrypted data, ensuring the confidentiality of financial data. Notably, FHE over the Torus (TFHE) was integrated with graph-based machine learning using Zama Concrete ML. The research contributes two key privacy-preserving pipelines. First, the development of a privacy-preserving Graph Neural Network (GNN) pipeline was explored. Optimization techniques like quantization and pruning were used to render the GNN FHE-compatible. Second, a privacy-preserving graph-based XGBoost pipeline leveraging Graph Feature Preprocessor (GFP) was successfully developed. Experiments demonstrated strong predictive performance, with the XGBoost model consistently achieving over 99% accuracy, F1-score, precision, and recall on the balanced AML dataset in both unencrypted and FHE-encrypted inference settings. On the imbalanced dataset, the incorporation of graph-based features improved the F1-score by 8%. The research highlights the need to balance the trade-off between privacy and computational efficiency.
Integrated sensing and communications (ISAC) has emerged as a means to efficiently utilize spectrum and thereby save cost and power. At the higher end of the spectrum, ISAC systems operate at wideband using large antenna arrays to meet the stringent demands for high-resolution sensing and enhanced communications capacity. On the other hand, the overall design should satisfy energy-efficiency and hardware constraints such as operating on low resolution components for a practical scenario. Therefore, this paper presents the design of Hybrid ANalog and Digital BeAmformers with Low resoLution (HANDBALL) digital-to-analog converters (DACs). We introduce a greedy-search-based approach to design the analog beamformers for multi-user multi-target ISAC scenario. Then, the quantization distortion is taken into account in order to design the baseband beamformer with low resolution DACs. We evaluated performance of the proposed HANDBALL technique in terms of both spectral efficiency and sensing beampattern, providing a satisfactory sensing and communication performance for both one-bit and few-bit designs.
Given data on the choices made by consumers for different offer sets, a key challenge is to develop parsimonious models that describe and predict consumer choice behavior while being amenable to prescriptive tasks such as pricing and assortment optimization. The marginal distribution model (MDM) is one such model, which requires only the specification of marginal distributions of the random utilities. This paper aims to establish necessary and sufficient conditions for given choice data to be consistent with the MDM hypothesis, inspired by the usefulness of similar characterizations for the random utility model (RUM). This endeavor leads to an exact characterization of the set of choice probabilities that the MDM can represent. Verifying the consistency of choice data with this characterization is equivalent to solving a polynomial-sized linear program. Since the analogous verification task for RUM is computationally intractable and neither of these models subsumes the other, MDM is helpful in striking a balance between tractability and representational power. The characterization is then used with robust optimization for making data-driven sales and revenue predictions for new unseen assortments. When the choice data lacks consistency with the MDM hypothesis, finding the best-fitting MDM choice probabilities reduces to solving a mixed integer convex program. Numerical results using real world data and synthetic data demonstrate that MDM exhibits competitive representational power and prediction performance compared to RUM and parametric models while being significantly faster in computation than RUM.
A celebrated result in the interface of online learning and game theory guarantees that the repeated interaction of no-regret players leads to a coarse correlated equilibrium (CCE) -- a natural game-theoretic solution concept. Despite the rich history of this foundational problem and the tremendous interest it has received in recent years, a basic question still remains open: how many iterations are needed for no-regret players to approximate an equilibrium? In this paper, we establish the first computational lower bounds for that problem in two-player (general-sum) games under the constraint that the CCE reached approximates the optimal social welfare (or some other natural objective). From a technical standpoint, our approach revolves around proving lower bounds for computing a near-optimal $T$-sparse CCE -- a mixture of $T$ product distributions, thereby circumscribing the iteration complexity of no-regret learning even in the centralized model of computation. Our proof proceeds by extending a classical reduction of Gilboa and Zemel [1989] for optimal Nash to sparse (approximate) CCE. In particular, we show that the inapproximability of maximum clique precludes attaining any non-trivial sparsity in polynomial time. Moreover, we strengthen our hardness results to apply in the low-precision regime as well via the planted clique conjecture.
It is the purpose of this paper to investigate the issue of estimating the regularity index $\beta>0$ of a discrete heavy-tailed r.v. $S$, \textit{i.e.} a r.v. $S$ valued in $\mathbb{N}^*$ such that $\mathbb{P}(S>n)=L(n)\cdot n^{-\beta}$ for all $n\geq 1$, where $L:\mathbb{R}^*_+\to \mathbb{R}_+$ is a slowly varying function. As a first go, we consider the situation where inference is based on independent copies $S_1,\; \ldots,\; S_n$ of the generic variable $S$. Just like the popular Hill estimator in the continuous heavy-tail situation, the estimator $\widehat{\beta}$ we propose can be derived by means of a suitable reformulation of the regularly varying condition, replacing $S$'s survivor function by its empirical counterpart. Under mild assumptions, a non-asymptotic bound for the deviation between $\widehat{\beta}$ and $\beta$ is established, as well as limit results (consistency and asymptotic normality). Beyond the i.i.d. case, the inference method proposed is extended to the estimation of the regularity index of a regenerative $\beta$-null recurrent Markov chain. Since the parameter $\beta$ can be then viewed as the tail index of the (regularly varying) distribution of the return time of the chain $X$ to any (pseudo-) regenerative set, in this case, the estimator is constructed from the successive regeneration times. Because the durations between consecutive regeneration times are asymptotically independent, we can prove that the consistency of the estimator promoted is preserved. In addition to the theoretical analysis carried out, simulation results provide empirical evidence of the relevance of the inference technique proposed.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.
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