The four-parameter generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GBII) has been proposed for modelling insurance losses with heavy-tailed features. The aim of this paper is to present a parametric composite GBII regression modelling by splicing two GBII distributions using mode matching method. It is designed for simultaneous modeling of small and large claims and capturing the policyholder heterogeneity by introducing the covariates into the location parameter. In such cases, the threshold that splits two GBII distributions varies across individuals policyholders based on their risk features. The proposed regression modelling also contains a wide range of insurance loss distributions as the head and the tail respectively and provides the close-formed expressions for parameter estimation and model prediction. A simulation study is conducted to show the accuracy of the proposed estimation method and the flexibility of the regressions. Some illustrations of the applicability of the new class of distributions and regressions are provided with a Danish fire losses data set and a Chinese medical insurance claims data set, comparing with the results of competing models from the literature.
The sparsity-ranked lasso (SRL) has been developed for model selection and estimation in the presence of interactions and polynomials. The main tenet of the SRL is that an algorithm should be more skeptical of higher-order polynomials and interactions *a priori* compared to main effects, and hence the inclusion of these more complex terms should require a higher level of evidence. In time series, the same idea of ranked prior skepticism can be applied to the possibly seasonal autoregressive (AR) structure of the series during the model fitting process, becoming especially useful in settings with uncertain or multiple modes of seasonality. The SRL can naturally incorporate exogenous variables, with streamlined options for inference and/or feature selection. The fitting process is quick even for large series with a high-dimensional feature set. In this work, we discuss both the formulation of this procedure and the software we have developed for its implementation via the **fastTS** R package. We explore the performance of our SRL-based approach in a novel application involving the autoregressive modeling of hourly emergency room arrivals at the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics. We find that the SRL is considerably faster than its competitors, while producing more accurate predictions.
Mendelian randomization is an instrumental variable method that utilizes genetic information to investigate the causal effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome. In most cases, the exposure changes over time. Understanding the time-varying causal effect of the exposure can yield detailed insights into mechanistic effects and the potential impact of public health interventions. Recently, a growing number of Mendelian randomization studies have attempted to explore time-varying causal effects. However, the proposed approaches oversimplify temporal information and rely on overly restrictive structural assumptions, limiting their reliability in addressing time-varying causal problems. This paper considers a novel approach to estimate time-varying effects through continuous-time modelling by combining functional principal component analysis and weak-instrument-robust techniques. Our method effectively utilizes available data without making strong structural assumptions and can be applied in general settings where the exposure measurements occur at different timepoints for different individuals. We demonstrate through simulations that our proposed method performs well in estimating time-varying effects and provides reliable inference results when the time-varying effect form is correctly specified. The method could theoretically be used to estimate arbitrarily complex time-varying effects. However, there is a trade-off between model complexity and instrument strength. Estimating complex time-varying effects requires instruments that are unrealistically strong. We illustrate the application of this method in a case study examining the time-varying effects of systolic blood pressure on urea levels.
Multi-contrast (MC) Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) reconstruction aims to incorporate a reference image of auxiliary modality to guide the reconstruction process of the target modality. Known MC reconstruction methods perform well with a fully sampled reference image, but usually exhibit inferior performance, compared to single-contrast (SC) methods, when the reference image is missing or of low quality. To address this issue, we propose DuDoUniNeXt, a unified dual-domain MRI reconstruction network that can accommodate to scenarios involving absent, low-quality, and high-quality reference images. DuDoUniNeXt adopts a hybrid backbone that combines CNN and ViT, enabling specific adjustment of image domain and k-space reconstruction. Specifically, an adaptive coarse-to-fine feature fusion module (AdaC2F) is devised to dynamically process the information from reference images of varying qualities. Besides, a partially shared shallow feature extractor (PaSS) is proposed, which uses shared and distinct parameters to handle consistent and discrepancy information among contrasts. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model surpasses state-of-the-art SC and MC models significantly. Ablation studies show the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid backbone, AdaC2F, PaSS, and the dual-domain unified learning scheme.
An integrated Equation of State (EOS) and strength/pore-crush/damage model framework is provided for modeling near to source (near-field) ground-shock response, where large deformations and pressures necessitate coupling EOS with pressure-dependent plastic yield and damage. Nonlinear pressure-dependence of strength up to high-pressures is combined with a Modified Cam-Clay-like cap-plasticity model in a way to allow degradation of strength from pore-crush damage, what we call the "Yp-Cap" model. Nonlinear hardening under compaction allows modeling the crush-out of pores in combination with a fully saturated EOS, i.e., for modeling partially saturated ground-shock response, where air-filled voids crush. Attention is given to algorithmic clarity and efficiency of the provided model, and the model is employed in example numerical simulations, including finite element simulations of underground explosions to exemplify its robustness and utility.
The Scott-Vogelius element is a popular finite element for the discretization of the Stokes equations which enjoys inf-sup stability and gives divergence-free velocity approximation. However, it is well known that the convergence rates for the discrete pressure deteriorate in the presence of certain $critical$ $vertices$ in a triangulation of the domain. Modifications of the Scott-Vogelius element such as the recently introduced pressure-wired Stokes element also suffer from this effect. In this paper we introduce a simple modification strategy for these pressure spaces that preserves the inf-sup stability while the pressure converges at an optimal rate.
One of the main challenges for interpreting black-box models is the ability to uniquely decompose square-integrable functions of non-independent random inputs into a sum of functions of every possible subset of variables. However, dealing with dependencies among inputs can be complicated. We propose a novel framework to study this problem, linking three domains of mathematics: probability theory, functional analysis, and combinatorics. We show that, under two reasonable assumptions on the inputs (non-perfect functional dependence and non-degenerate stochastic dependence), it is always possible to decompose such a function uniquely. This generalizes the well-known Hoeffding decomposition. The elements of this decomposition can be expressed using oblique projections and allow for novel interpretability indices for evaluation and variance decomposition purposes. The properties of these novel indices are studied and discussed. This generalization offers a path towards a more precise uncertainty quantification, which can benefit sensitivity analysis and interpretability studies whenever the inputs are dependent. This decomposition is illustrated analytically, and the challenges for adopting these results in practice are discussed.
Several mixed-effects models for longitudinal data have been proposed to accommodate the non-linearity of late-life cognitive trajectories and assess the putative influence of covariates on it. No prior research provides a side-by-side examination of these models to offer guidance on their proper application and interpretation. In this work, we examined five statistical approaches previously used to answer research questions related to non-linear changes in cognitive aging: the linear mixed model (LMM) with a quadratic term, LMM with splines, the functional mixed model, the piecewise linear mixed model, and the sigmoidal mixed model. We first theoretically describe the models. Next, using data from two prospective cohorts with annual cognitive testing, we compared the interpretation of the models by investigating associations of education on cognitive change before death. Lastly, we performed a simulation study to empirically evaluate the models and provide practical recommendations. Except for the LMM-quadratic, the fit of all models was generally adequate to capture non-linearity of cognitive change and models were relatively robust. Although spline-based models have no interpretable nonlinearity parameters, their convergence was easier to achieve, and they allow graphical interpretation. In contrast, piecewise and sigmoidal models, with interpretable non-linear parameters, may require more data to achieve convergence.
Chemical and biochemical reactions can exhibit surprisingly different behaviours from multiple steady-state solutions to oscillatory solutions and chaotic behaviours. Such behaviour has been of great interest to researchers for many decades. The Briggs-Rauscher, Belousov-Zhabotinskii and Bray-Liebhafsky reactions, for which periodic variations in concentrations can be visualized by changes in colour, are experimental examples of oscillating behaviour in chemical systems. These type of systems are modelled by a system of partial differential equations coupled by a nonlinearity. However, analysing the pattern, one may suspect that the dynamic is only generated by a finite number of spatial Fourier modes. In fluid dynamics, it is shown that for large times, the solution is determined by a finite number of spatial Fourier modes, called determining modes. In the article, we first introduce the concept of determining modes and show that, indeed, it is sufficient to characterise the dynamic by only a finite number of spatial Fourier modes. In particular, we analyse the exact number of the determining modes of $u$ and $v$, where the couple $(u,v)$ solves the following stochastic system \begin{equation*} \partial_t{u}(t) = r_1\Delta u(t) -\alpha_1u(t)- \gamma_1u(t)v^2(t) + f(1 - u(t)) + g(t),\quad \partial_t{v}(t) = r_2\Delta v(t) -\alpha_2v(t) + \gamma_2 u(t)v^2(t) + h(t),\quad u(0) = u_0,\;v(0) = v_0, \end{equation*} where $r_1,r_2,\gamma_1,\gamma_2>0$, $\alpha_1,\alpha_2 \ge 0$ and $g,h$ are time depending mappings specified later.
During the evolution of large models, performance evaluation is necessarily performed to assess their capabilities and ensure safety before practical application. However, current model evaluations mainly rely on specific tasks and datasets, lacking a united framework for assessing the multidimensional intelligence of large models. In this perspective, we advocate for a comprehensive framework of cognitive science-inspired artificial general intelligence (AGI) tests, aimed at fulfilling the testing needs of large models with enhanced capabilities. The cognitive science-inspired AGI tests encompass the full spectrum of intelligence facets, including crystallized intelligence, fluid intelligence, social intelligence, and embodied intelligence. To assess the multidimensional intelligence of large models, the AGI tests consist of a battery of well-designed cognitive tests adopted from human intelligence tests, and then naturally encapsulates into an immersive virtual community. We propose increasing the complexity of AGI testing tasks commensurate with advancements in large models and emphasizing the necessity for the interpretation of test results to avoid false negatives and false positives. We believe that cognitive science-inspired AGI tests will effectively guide the targeted improvement of large models in specific dimensions of intelligence and accelerate the integration of large models into human society.
This study addresses a class of linear mixed-integer programming (MILP) problems that involve uncertainty in the objective function parameters. The parameters are assumed to form a random vector, whose probability distribution can only be observed through a finite training data set. Unlike most of the related studies in the literature, we also consider uncertainty in the underlying data set. The data uncertainty is described by a set of linear constraints for each random sample, and the uncertainty in the distribution (for a fixed realization of data) is defined using a type-1 Wasserstein ball centered at the empirical distribution of the data. The overall problem is formulated as a three-level distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem. First, we prove that the three-level problem admits a single-level MILP reformulation, if the class of loss functions is restricted to biaffine functions. Secondly, it turns out that for several particular forms of data uncertainty, the outlined problem can be solved reasonably fast by leveraging the nominal MILP problem. Finally, we conduct a computational study, where the out-of-sample performance of our model and computational complexity of the proposed MILP reformulation are explored numerically for several application domains.