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We introduce a new continual (or lifelong) learning algorithm called LDA-CP&S that performs segmentation tasks without undergoing catastrophic forgetting. The method is applied to two different surface defect segmentation problems that are learned incrementally, i.e. providing data about one type of defect at a time, while still being capable of predicting every defect that was seen previously. Our method creates a defect-related subnetwork for each defect type via iterative pruning and trains a classifier based on linear discriminant analysis (LDA). At the inference stage, we first predict the defect type with LDA and then predict the surface defects using the selected subnetwork. We compare our method with other continual learning methods showing a significant improvement -- mean Intersection over Union better by a factor of two when compared to existing methods on both datasets. Importantly, our approach shows comparable results with joint training when all the training data (all defects) are seen simultaneously

We introduce a general framework for active learning in regression problems. Our framework extends the standard setup by allowing for general types of data, rather than merely pointwise samples of the target function. This generalization covers many cases of practical interest, such as data acquired in transform domains (e.g., Fourier data), vector-valued data (e.g., gradient-augmented data), data acquired along continuous curves, and, multimodal data (i.e., combinations of different types of measurements). Our framework considers random sampling according to a finite number of sampling measures and arbitrary nonlinear approximation spaces (model classes). We introduce the concept of generalized Christoffel functions and show how these can be used to optimize the sampling measures. We prove that this leads to near-optimal sample complexity in various important cases. This paper focuses on applications in scientific computing, where active learning is often desirable, since it is usually expensive to generate data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework for gradient-augmented learning with polynomials, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) using generative models and adaptive sampling for solving PDEs using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs).

We present a novel clustering algorithm, visClust, that is based on lower dimensional data representations and visual interpretation. Thereto, we design a transformation that allows the data to be represented by a binary integer array enabling the use of image processing methods to select a partition. Qualitative and quantitative analyses measured in accuracy and an adjusted Rand-Index show that the algorithm performs well while requiring low runtime and RAM. We compare the results to 6 state-of-the-art algorithms with available code, confirming the quality of visClust by superior performance in most experiments. Moreover, the algorithm asks for just one obligatory input parameter while allowing optimization via optional parameters. The code is made available on GitHub and straightforward to use.

Test-negative designs are widely used for post-market evaluation of vaccine effectiveness. Different from classical test-negative designs where only healthcare-seekers with symptoms are included, recent test-negative designs have involved individuals with various reasons for testing, especially in an outbreak setting. While including these data can increase sample size and hence improve precision, concerns have been raised about whether they will introduce bias into the current framework of test-negative designs, thereby demanding a formal statistical examination of this modified design. In this article, using statistical derivations, causal graphs, and numerical simulations, we show that the standard odds ratio estimator may be biased if various reasons for testing are not accounted for. To eliminate this bias, we identify three categories of reasons for testing, including symptoms, disease-unrelated reasons, and case contact tracing, and characterize associated statistical properties and estimands. Based on our characterization, we propose stratified estimators that can incorporate multiple reasons for testing to achieve consistent estimation and improve precision by maximizing the use of data. The performance of our proposed method is demonstrated through simulation studies.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) are a widely used framework for sequential decision-making under parameter uncertainty. RMDPs have been extensively studied when the objective is to maximize the discounted return, but little is known for average optimality (optimizing the long-run average of the rewards obtained over time) and Blackwell optimality (remaining discount optimal for all discount factors sufficiently close to 1). In this paper, we prove several foundational results for RMDPs beyond the discounted return. We show that average optimal policies can be chosen stationary and deterministic for sa-rectangular RMDPs but, perhaps surprisingly, that history-dependent (Markovian) policies strictly outperform stationary policies for average optimality in s-rectangular RMDPs. We also study Blackwell optimality for sa-rectangular RMDPs, where we show that {\em approximate} Blackwell optimal policies always exist, although Blackwell optimal policies may not exist. We also provide a sufficient condition for their existence, which encompasses virtually any examples from the literature. We then discuss the connection between average and Blackwell optimality, and we describe several algorithms to compute the optimal average return. Interestingly, our approach leverages the connections between RMDPs and stochastic games.

Sample selection models represent a common methodology for correcting bias induced by data missing not at random. It is well known that these models are not empirically identifiable without exclusion restrictions. In other words, some variables predictive of missingness do not affect the outcome model of interest. The drive to establish this requirement often leads to the inclusion of irrelevant variables in the model. A recent proposal uses adaptive LASSO to circumvent this problem, but its performance depends on the so-called covariance assumption, which can be violated in small to moderate samples. Additionally, there are no tools yet for post-selection inference for this model. To address these challenges, we propose two families of spike-and-slab priors to conduct Bayesian variable selection in sample selection models. These prior structures allow for constructing a Gibbs sampler with tractable conditionals, which is scalable to the dimensions of practical interest. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology through a simulation study and present a comparison against adaptive LASSO and stepwise selection. We also provide two applications using publicly available real data. An implementation and code to reproduce the results in this paper can be found at //github.com/adam-iqbal/selection-spike-slab

Large-scale language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, are becoming increasingly sophisticated and exhibit human-like capabilities, playing an essential role in assisting humans in a variety of everyday tasks. An important application of AI is interactive recommendation systems that respond to human inquiries and make recommendations tailored to the user. In most conventional interactive recommendation systems, the language model is used only as a dialogue model, and there is a separate recommendation system. This is due to the fact that the language model used as a dialogue system does not have the capability to serve as a recommendation system. Therefore, we will realize the construction of a dialogue system with recommendation capability by using OpenAI's Chat-GPT, which has a very high inference capability as a dialogue system and the ability to generate high-quality sentences, and verify the effectiveness of the system.

A growing number of scholars and data scientists are conducting randomized experiments to analyze causal relationships in network settings where units influence one another. A dominant methodology for analyzing these network experiments has been design-based, leveraging randomization of treatment assignment as the basis for inference. In this paper, we generalize this design-based approach so that it can be applied to more complex experiments with a variety of causal estimands with different target populations. An important special case of such generalized network experiments is a bipartite network experiment, in which the treatment assignment is randomized among one set of units and the outcome is measured for a separate set of units. We propose a broad class of causal estimands based on stochastic intervention for generalized network experiments. Using a design-based approach, we show how to estimate the proposed causal quantities without bias, and develop conservative variance estimators. We apply our methodology to a randomized experiment in education where a group of selected students in middle schools are eligible for the anti-conflict promotion program, and the program participation is randomized within this group. In particular, our analysis estimates the causal effects of treating each student or his/her close friends, for different target populations in the network. We find that while the treatment improves the overall awareness against conflict among students, it does not significantly reduce the total number of conflicts.

The prediction accuracy of machine learning methods is steadily increasing, but the calibration of their uncertainty predictions poses a significant challenge. Numerous works focus on obtaining well-calibrated predictive models, but less is known about reliably assessing model calibration. This limits our ability to know when algorithms for improving calibration have a real effect, and when their improvements are merely artifacts due to random noise in finite datasets. In this work, we consider detecting mis-calibration of predictive models using a finite validation dataset as a hypothesis testing problem. The null hypothesis is that the predictive model is calibrated, while the alternative hypothesis is that the deviation from calibration is sufficiently large. We find that detecting mis-calibration is only possible when the conditional probabilities of the classes are sufficiently smooth functions of the predictions. When the conditional class probabilities are H\"older continuous, we propose T-Cal, a minimax optimal test for calibration based on a debiased plug-in estimator of the $\ell_2$-Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We further propose Adaptive T-Cal, a version that is adaptive to unknown smoothness. We verify our theoretical findings with a broad range of experiments, including with several popular deep neural net architectures and several standard post-hoc calibration methods. T-Cal is a practical general-purpose tool, which -- combined with classical tests for discrete-valued predictors -- can be used to test the calibration of virtually any probabilistic classification method.

In recent years, object detection has experienced impressive progress. Despite these improvements, there is still a significant gap in the performance between the detection of small and large objects. We analyze the current state-of-the-art model, Mask-RCNN, on a challenging dataset, MS COCO. We show that the overlap between small ground-truth objects and the predicted anchors is much lower than the expected IoU threshold. We conjecture this is due to two factors; (1) only a few images are containing small objects, and (2) small objects do not appear enough even within each image containing them. We thus propose to oversample those images with small objects and augment each of those images by copy-pasting small objects many times. It allows us to trade off the quality of the detector on large objects with that on small objects. We evaluate different pasting augmentation strategies, and ultimately, we achieve 9.7\% relative improvement on the instance segmentation and 7.1\% on the object detection of small objects, compared to the current state of the art method on MS COCO.