We study the power of price discrimination via an intermediary in bilateral trade, when there is a revenue-maximizing seller selling an item to a buyer with a private value drawn from a prior. Between the seller and the buyer, there is an intermediary that can segment the market by releasing information about the true values to the seller. This is termed signaling, and enables the seller to price discriminate. In this setting, Bergemann et al. showed the existence of a signaling scheme that simultaneously raises the optimal consumer surplus, guarantees the item always sells, and ensures the seller's revenue does not increase. Our work extends the positive result of Bergemann et al. to settings where the type space is larger, and where optimal auction is randomized, possibly over a menu that can be exponentially large. In particular, we consider two settings motivated by budgets: The first is when there is a publicly known budget constraint on the price the seller can charge and the second is the FedEx problem where the buyer has a private deadline or service level (equivalently, a private budget that is guaranteed to never bind). For both settings, we present a novel signaling scheme and its analysis via a continuous construction process that recreates the optimal consumer surplus guarantee of Bergemann et al. The settings we consider are special cases of the more general problem where the buyer has a private budget constraint in addition to a private value. We finally show that our positive results do not extend to this more general setting. Here, we show that any efficient signaling scheme necessarily transfers almost all the surplus to the seller instead of the buyer.
We study the problem of designing mechanisms for \emph{information acquisition} scenarios. This setting models strategic interactions between an uniformed \emph{receiver} and a set of informed \emph{senders}. In our model the senders receive information about the underlying state of nature and communicate their observation (either truthfully or not) to the receiver, which, based on this information, selects an action. Our goal is to design mechanisms maximizing the receiver's utility while incentivizing the senders to report truthfully their information. First, we provide an algorithm that efficiently computes an optimal \emph{incentive compatible} (IC) mechanism. Then, we focus on the \emph{online} problem in which the receiver sequentially interacts in an unknown game, with the objective of minimizing the \emph{cumulative regret} w.r.t. the optimal IC mechanism, and the \emph{cumulative violation} of the incentive compatibility constraints. We investigate two different online scenarios, \emph{i.e.,} the \emph{full} and \emph{bandit feedback} settings. For the full feedback problem, we propose an algorithm that guarantees $\tilde{\mathcal O}(\sqrt T)$ regret and violation, while for the bandit feedback setting we present an algorithm that attains $\tilde{\mathcal O}(T^{\alpha})$ regret and $\tilde{\mathcal O}(T^{1-\alpha/2})$ violation for any $\alpha\in[1/2, 1]$. Finally, we complement our results providing a tight lower bound.
We present a distribution optimization framework that significantly improves confidence bounds for various risk measures compared to previous methods. Our framework encompasses popular risk measures such as the entropic risk measure, conditional value at risk (CVaR), spectral risk measure, distortion risk measure, equivalent certainty, and rank-dependent expected utility, which are well established in risk-sensitive decision-making literature. To achieve this, we introduce two estimation schemes based on concentration bounds derived from the empirical distribution, specifically using either the Wasserstein distance or the supremum distance. Unlike traditional approaches that add or subtract a confidence radius from the empirical risk measures, our proposed schemes evaluate a specific transformation of the empirical distribution based on the distance. Consequently, our confidence bounds consistently yield tighter results compared to previous methods. We further verify the efficacy of the proposed framework by providing tighter problem-dependent regret bound for the CVaR bandit.
A confidence sequence (CS) is a sequence of confidence intervals that is valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. These are useful in applications like A/B testing, multi-armed bandits, off-policy evaluation, election auditing, etc. We present three approaches to constructing a confidence sequence for the population mean, under the minimal assumption that only an upper bound $\sigma^2$ on the variance is known. While previous works rely on light-tail assumptions like boundedness or subGaussianity (under which all moments of a distribution exist), the confidence sequences in our work are able to handle data from a wide range of heavy-tailed distributions. The best among our three methods -- the Catoni-style confidence sequence -- performs remarkably well in practice, essentially matching the state-of-the-art methods for $\sigma^2$-subGaussian data, and provably attains the $\sqrt{\log \log t/t}$ lower bound due to the law of the iterated logarithm. Our findings have important implications for sequential experimentation with unbounded observations, since the $\sigma^2$-bounded-variance assumption is more realistic and easier to verify than $\sigma^2$-subGaussianity (which implies the former). We also extend our methods to data with infinite variance, but having $p$-th central moment ($1<p<2$).
We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.
We study an abstract framework for interactive learning called interactive estimation in which the goal is to estimate a target from its "similarity'' to points queried by the learner. We introduce a combinatorial measure called dissimilarity dimension which largely captures learnability in our model. We present a simple, general, and broadly-applicable algorithm, for which we obtain both regret and PAC generalization bounds that are polynomial in the new dimension. We show that our framework subsumes and thereby unifies two classic learning models: statistical-query learning and structured bandits. We also delineate how the dissimilarity dimension is related to well-known parameters for both frameworks, in some cases yielding significantly improved analyses.
We introduce new differentially private (DP) mechanisms for gradient-based machine learning (ML) with multiple passes (epochs) over a dataset, substantially improving the achievable privacy-utility-computation tradeoffs. We formalize the problem of DP mechanisms for adaptive streams with multiple participations and introduce a non-trivial extension of online matrix factorization DP mechanisms to our setting. This includes establishing the necessary theory for sensitivity calculations and efficient computation of optimal matrices. For some applications like $>\!\! 10,000$ SGD steps, applying these optimal techniques becomes computationally expensive. We thus design an efficient Fourier-transform-based mechanism with only a minor utility loss. Extensive empirical evaluation on both example-level DP for image classification and user-level DP for language modeling demonstrate substantial improvements over all previous methods, including the widely-used DP-SGD . Though our primary application is to ML, our main DP results are applicable to arbitrary linear queries and hence may have much broader applicability.
Decision-makers often simultaneously face many related but heterogeneous learning problems. For instance, a large retailer may wish to learn product demand at different stores to solve pricing or inventory problems, making it desirable to learn jointly for stores serving similar customers; alternatively, a hospital network may wish to learn patient risk at different providers to allocate personalized interventions, making it desirable to learn jointly for hospitals serving similar patient populations. Motivated by real datasets, we study a natural setting where the unknown parameter in each learning instance can be decomposed into a shared global parameter plus a sparse instance-specific term. We propose a novel two-stage multitask learning estimator that exploits this structure in a sample-efficient way, using a unique combination of robust statistics (to learn across similar instances) and LASSO regression (to debias the results). Our estimator yields improved sample complexity bounds in the feature dimension $d$ relative to commonly-employed estimators; this improvement is exponential for "data-poor" instances, which benefit the most from multitask learning. We illustrate the utility of these results for online learning by embedding our multitask estimator within simultaneous contextual bandit algorithms. We specify a dynamic calibration of our estimator to appropriately balance the bias-variance tradeoff over time, improving the resulting regret bounds in the context dimension $d$. Finally, we illustrate the value of our approach on synthetic and real datasets.
We introduce a new approach for computing optimal equilibria via learning in games. It applies to extensive-form settings with any number of players, including mechanism design, information design, and solution concepts such as correlated, communication, and certification equilibria. We observe that optimal equilibria are minimax equilibrium strategies of a player in an extensive-form zero-sum game. This reformulation allows to apply techniques for learning in zero-sum games, yielding the first learning dynamics that converge to optimal equilibria, not only in empirical averages, but also in iterates. We demonstrate the practical scalability and flexibility of our approach by attaining state-of-the-art performance in benchmark tabular games, and by computing an optimal mechanism for a sequential auction design problem using deep reinforcement learning.
In many industrial applications, obtaining labeled observations is not straightforward as it often requires the intervention of human experts or the use of expensive testing equipment. In these circumstances, active learning can be highly beneficial in suggesting the most informative data points to be used when fitting a model. Reducing the number of observations needed for model development alleviates both the computational burden required for training and the operational expenses related to labeling. Online active learning, in particular, is useful in high-volume production processes where the decision about the acquisition of the label for a data point needs to be taken within an extremely short time frame. However, despite the recent efforts to develop online active learning strategies, the behavior of these methods in the presence of outliers has not been thoroughly examined. In this work, we investigate the performance of online active linear regression in contaminated data streams. Our study shows that the currently available query strategies are prone to sample outliers, whose inclusion in the training set eventually degrades the predictive performance of the models. To address this issue, we propose a solution that bounds the search area of a conditional D-optimal algorithm and uses a robust estimator. Our approach strikes a balance between exploring unseen regions of the input space and protecting against outliers. Through numerical simulations, we show that the proposed method is effective in improving the performance of online active learning in the presence of outliers, thus expanding the potential applications of this powerful tool.
Species-sampling problems (SSPs) refer to a vast class of statistical problems calling for the estimation of (discrete) functionals of the unknown species composition of an unobservable population. A common feature of SSPs is their invariance with respect to species labelling, which is at the core of the Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to SSPs under the popular Pitman-Yor process (PYP) prior. In this paper, we develop a BNP approach to SSPs that are not "invariant" to species labelling, in the sense that an ordering or ranking is assigned to species' labels. Inspired by the population genetics literature on age-ordered alleles' compositions, we study the following SSP with ordering: given an observable sample from an unknown population of individuals belonging to species (alleles), with species' labels being ordered according to weights (ages), estimate the frequencies of the first $r$ order species' labels in an enlarged sample obtained by including additional unobservable samples. By relying on an ordered PYP prior, we obtain an explicit posterior distribution of the first $r$ order frequencies, with estimates being of easy implementation and computationally efficient. We apply our approach to the analysis of genetic variation, showing its effectiveness in estimating the frequency of the oldest allele, and then we discuss other potential applications.