The multivariate Hawkes process is a past-dependent point process used to model the relationship of event occurrences between different phenomena.Although the Hawkes process was originally introduced to describe excitation effects, which means that one event increases the chances of another occurring, there has been a growing interest in modelling the opposite effect, known as inhibition.In this paper, we focus on how to infer the parameters of a multidimensional exponential Hawkes process with both excitation and inhibition effects. Our first result is to prove the identifiability of this model under a few sufficient assumptions. Then we propose a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the interaction functions, which is, to the best of our knowledge, the first exact inference procedure in the frequentist framework.Our method includes a variable selection step in order to recover the support of interactions and therefore to infer the connectivity graph.A benefit of our method is to provide an explicit computation of the log-likelihood, which enables in addition to perform a goodness-of-fit test for assessing the quality of estimations.We compare our method to standard approaches, which were developed in the linear framework and are not specifically designed for handling inhibiting effects.We show that the proposed estimator performs better on synthetic data than alternative approaches. We also illustrate the application of our procedure to a neuronal activity dataset, which highlights the presence of both exciting and inhibiting effects between neurons.
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Processing 是一門開源編程語言和與之配套的集成開發環境（IDE）的名稱。Processing 在電子藝術和視覺設計社區被用來教授編程基礎，并運用于大量的新媒體和互動藝術作品中。
The choice to participate in a data-driven service, often made on the basis of quality of that service, influences the ability of the service to learn and improve. We study the participation and retraining dynamics that arise when both the learners and sub-populations of users are \emph{risk-reducing}, which cover a broad class of updates including gradient descent, multiplicative weights, etc. Suppose, for example, that individuals choose to spend their time amongst social media platforms proportionally to how well each platform works for them. Each platform also gathers data about its active users, which it uses to update parameters with a gradient step. For this example and for our general class of dynamics, we show that the only asymptotically stable equilibria are segmented, with sub-populations allocated to a single learner. Under mild assumptions, the utilitarian social optimum is a stable equilibrium. In contrast to previous work, which shows that repeated risk minimization can result in representation disparity and high overall loss for a single learner \citep{hashimoto2018fairness,miller2021outside}, we find that repeated myopic updates with multiple learners lead to better outcomes. We illustrate the phenomena via a simulated example initialized from real data.
Stochastic multi-scale modeling and simulation for nonlinear thermo-mechanical problems of composite materials with complicated random microstructures remains a challenging issue. In this paper, we develop a novel statistical higher-order multi-scale (SHOMS) method for nonlinear thermo-mechanical simulation of random composite materials, which is designed to overcome limitations of prohibitive computation involving the macro-scale and micro-scale. By virtue of statistical multi-scale asymptotic analysis and Taylor series method, the SHOMS computational model is rigorously derived for accurately analyzing nonlinear thermo-mechanical responses of random composite materials both in the macro-scale and micro-scale. Moreover, the local error analysis of SHOMS solutions in the point-wise sense clearly illustrates the crucial indispensability of establishing the higher-order asymptotic corrected terms in SHOMS computational model for keeping the conservation of local energy and momentum. Then, the corresponding space-time multi-scale numerical algorithm with off-line and on-line stages is designed to efficiently simulate nonlinear thermo-mechanical behaviors of random composite materials. Finally, extensive numerical experiments are presented to gauge the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed SHOMS approach.
This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an application, we consider different disaggregation levels for inflation and employ a range of traditional time series techniques as well as linear and nonlinear machine learning (ML) models to deal with a larger number of predictors. For many forecast horizons, the aggregation of disaggregated forecasts performs just as well survey-based expectations and models that generate forecasts using the aggregate directly. Overall, ML methods outperform traditional time series models in predictive accuracy, with outstanding performance in forecasting disaggregates. Our results reinforce the benefits of using models in a data-rich environment for inflation forecasting, including aggregating disaggregated forecasts from ML techniques, mainly during volatile periods. Starting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the random forest model based on both aggregate and disaggregated inflation achieves remarkable predictive performance at intermediate and longer horizons.
High-level synthesis (HLS) refers to the automatic translation of a software program written in a high-level language into a hardware design. Modern HLS tools have moved away from the traditional approach of static (compile time) scheduling of operations to generating dynamic circuits that schedule operations at run time. Such circuits trade-off area utilisation for increased dynamism and throughput. However, existing lowering flows in dynamically scheduled HLS tools rely on conservative assumptions on their input program due to both the intermediate representations (IR) utilised as well as the lack of formal specifications on the translation into hardware. These assumptions cause suboptimal hardware performance. In this work, we lift these assumptions by proposing a new and efficient abstraction for hardware mapping; namely h-GSA, an extension of the Gated Single Static Assignment (GSA) IR. Using this abstraction, we propose a lowering flow that transforms GSA into h-GSA and maps h-GSA into dynamically scheduled hardware circuits. We compare the schedules generated by our approach to those by the state-of-the-art dynamic-scheduling HLS tool, Dynamatic, and illustrate the potential performance improvement from hardware mapping using the proposed abstraction.
We consider a general linear parabolic problem with extended time boundary conditions (including initial value problems and periodic ones), and approximate it by the implicit Euler scheme in time and the Gradient Discretisation method in space; the latter is in fact a class of methods that includes conforming and nonconforming finite elements, discontinuous Galerkin methods and several others. The main result is an error estimate which holds without supplementary regularity hypothesis on the solution. This result states that the approximation error has the same order as the sum of the interpolation error and the conformity error. The proof of this result relies on an inf-sup inequality in Hilbert spaces which can be used both in the continuous and the discrete frameworks. The error estimate result is illustrated by numerical examples with low regularity of the solution.
The distributed task allocation problem, as one of the most interesting distributed optimization challenges, has received considerable research attention recently. Previous works mainly focused on the task allocation problem in a population of individuals, where there are no constraints for affording task amounts. The latter condition, however, cannot always be hold. In this paper, we study the task allocation problem with constraints of task allocation in a game-theoretical framework. We assume that each individual can afford different amounts of task and the cost function is convex. To investigate the problem in the framework of population games, we construct a potential game and calculate the fitness function for each individual. We prove that when the Nash equilibrium point in the potential game is in the feasible solutions for the limited task allocation problem, the Nash equilibrium point is the unique globally optimal solution. Otherwise, we also derive analytically the unique globally optimal solution. In addition, in order to confirm our theoretical results, we consider the exponential and quadratic forms of cost function for each agent. Two algorithms with the mentioned representative cost functions are proposed to numerically seek the optimal solution to the limited task problems. We further perform Monte Carlo simulations which provide agreeing results with our analytical calculations.
This work is concerned with kinetic equations with velocity of constant magnitude. We propose a quadrature method of moments based on the Poisson kernel, called Poisson-EQMOM. The derived moment closure systems are well defined for all physically relevant moments and the resultant approximations of the distribution function converge as the number of moments goes to infinity. The convergence makes our method stand out from most existing moment methods. Moreover, we devise a delicate moment inversion algorithm. As an application, the Vicsek model is studied for overdamped active particles. Then the Poisson-EQMOM is validated with a series of numerical tests including spatially homogeneous, one-dimensional and two-dimensional problems.
The forecasting and computation of the stability of chaotic systems from partial observations are tasks for which traditional equation-based methods may not be suitable. In this computational paper, we propose data-driven methods to (i) infer the dynamics of unobserved (hidden) chaotic variables (full-state reconstruction); (ii) time forecast the evolution of the full state; and (iii) infer the stability properties of the full state. The tasks are performed with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, which are trained with observations (data) limited to only part of the state: (i) the low-to-high resolution LSTM (LH-LSTM), which takes partial observations as training input, and requires access to the full system state when computing the loss; and (ii) the physics-informed LSTM (PI-LSTM), which is designed to combine partial observations with the integral formulation of the dynamical system's evolution equations. First, we derive the Jacobian of the LSTMs. Second, we analyse a chaotic partial differential equation, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS), and the Lorenz-96 system. We show that the proposed networks can forecast the hidden variables, both time-accurately and statistically. The Lyapunov exponents and covariant Lyapunov vectors, which characterize the stability of the chaotic attractors, are correctly inferred from partial observations. Third, the PI-LSTM outperforms the LH-LSTM by successfully reconstructing the hidden chaotic dynamics when the input dimension is smaller or similar to the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. This work opens new opportunities for reconstructing the full state, inferring hidden variables, and computing the stability of chaotic systems from partial data.
Single-parameter summaries of variable effects are desirable for ease of interpretation, but linear models, which would deliver these, may fit poorly to the data. A modern approach is to estimate the average partial effect -- the average slope of the regression function with respect to the predictor of interest -- using a doubly robust semiparametric procedure. Most existing work has focused on specific forms of nuisance function estimators. We extend the scope to arbitrary plug-in nuisance function estimation, allowing for the use of modern machine learning methods which in particular may deliver non-differentiable regression function estimates. Our procedure involves resmoothing a user-chosen first-stage regression estimator to produce a differentiable version, and modelling the conditional distribution of the predictors through a location-scale model. We show that our proposals lead to a semiparametric efficient estimator under relatively weak assumptions. Our theory makes use of a new result on the sub-Gaussianity of Lipschitz score functions that may be of independent interest. We demonstrate the attractive numerical performance of our approach in a variety of settings including ones with misspecification.
Long-span bridges are subjected to a multitude of dynamic excitations during their lifespan. To account for their effects on the structural system, several load models are used during design to simulate the conditions the structure is likely to experience. These models are based on different simplifying assumptions and are generally guided by parameters that are stochastically identified from measurement data, making their outputs inherently uncertain. This paper presents a probabilistic physics-informed machine-learning framework based on Gaussian process regression for reconstructing dynamic forces based on measured deflections, velocities, or accelerations. The model can work with incomplete and contaminated data and offers a natural regularization approach to account for noise in the measurement system. An application of the developed framework is given by an aerodynamic analysis of the Great Belt East Bridge. The aerodynamic response is calculated numerically based on the quasi-steady model, and the underlying forces are reconstructed using sparse and noisy measurements. Results indicate a good agreement between the applied and the predicted dynamic load and can be extended to calculate global responses and the resulting internal forces. Uses of the developed framework include validation of design models and assumptions, as well as prognosis of responses to assist in damage detection and structural health monitoring.
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