Conditional independence models associated with directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) may be characterized in at least three different ways: via a factorization, the global Markov property (given by the d-separation criterion), and the local Markov property. Marginals of DAG models also imply equality constraints that are not conditional independences; the well-known `Verma constraint' is an example. Constraints of this type are used for testing edges, and in a computationally efficient marginalization scheme via variable elimination. We show that equality constraints like the `Verma constraint' can be viewed as conditional independences in kernel objects obtained from joint distributions via a fixing operation that generalizes conditioning and marginalization. We use these constraints to define, via ordered local and global Markov properties, and a factorization, a graphical model associated with acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs). We prove that marginal distributions of DAG models lie in this model, and that a set of these constraints given by Tian provides an alternative definition of the model. Finally, we show that the fixing operation used to define the model leads to a particularly simple characterization of identifiable causal effects in hidden variable causal DAG models.
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We study the problem of estimating the left and right singular subspaces for a collection of heterogeneous random graphs with a shared common structure. We analyze an algorithm that first estimates the orthogonal projection matrices corresponding to these subspaces for each individual graph, then computes the average of the projection matrices, and finally finds the matrices whose columns are the eigenvectors corresponding to the $d$ largest eigenvalues of the sample averages. We show that the algorithm yields an estimate of the left and right singular vectors whose row-wise fluctuations are normally distributed around the rows of the true singular vectors. We then consider a two-sample hypothesis test for the null hypothesis that two graphs have the same edge probabilities matrices against the alternative hypothesis that their edge probabilities matrices are different. Using the limiting distributions for the singular subspaces, we present a test statistic whose limiting distribution converges to a central $\chi^2$ (resp. non-central $\chi^2$) under the null (resp. alternative) hypothesis. Finally, we adapt the theoretical analysis for multiple networks to the setting of distributed PCA; in particular, we derive normal approximations for the rows of the estimated eigenvectors using distributed PCA when the data exhibit a spiked covariance matrix structure.
Knowledge graphs are inherently incomplete. Therefore substantial research has been directed towards knowledge graph completion (KGC), i.e., predicting missing triples from the information represented in the knowledge graph (KG). Embedding models have yielded promising results for KGC, yet any current KGC embedding model is incapable of: (1) fully capturing vital inference patterns (e.g., composition), (2) capturing prominent logical rules jointly (e.g., hierarchy and composition), and (3) providing an intuitive interpretation of captured patterns. In this work, we propose ExpressivE, a fully expressive spatio-functional embedding model that solves all these challenges simultaneously. ExpressivE embeds pairs of entities as points and relations as hyper-parallelograms in the virtual triple space $\mathbb{R}^{2d}$. This model design allows ExpressivE not only to capture a rich set of inference patterns jointly but additionally to display any supported inference pattern through the spatial relation of hyper-parallelograms, offering an intuitive and consistent geometric interpretation of ExpressivE embeddings and their captured patterns. Experimental results on standard KGC benchmarks reveal that ExpressivE is competitive with state-of-the-art models and even significantly outperforms them on WN18RR.
Suppose we observe a random vector $X$ from some distribution $P$ in a known family with unknown parameters. We ask the following question: when is it possible to split $X$ into two parts $f(X)$ and $g(X)$ such that neither part is sufficient to reconstruct $X$ by itself, but both together can recover $X$ fully, and the joint distribution of $(f(X),g(X))$ is tractable? As one example, if $X=(X_1,\dots,X_n)$ and $P$ is a product distribution, then for any $m<n$, we can split the sample to define $f(X)=(X_1,\dots,X_m)$ and $g(X)=(X_{m+1},\dots,X_n)$. Rasines and Young (2021) offers an alternative route of accomplishing this task through randomization of $X$ with additive Gaussian noise which enables post-selection inference in finite samples for Gaussian distributed data and asymptotically for non-Gaussian additive models. In this paper, we offer a more general methodology for achieving such a split in finite samples by borrowing ideas from Bayesian inference to yield a (frequentist) solution that can be viewed as a continuous analog of data splitting. We call our method data fission, as an alternative to data splitting, data carving and p-value masking. We exemplify the method on a few prototypical applications, such as post-selection inference for trend filtering and other regression problems.
Estimating an individual treatment effect (ITE) is essential to personalized decision making. However, existing methods for estimating the ITE often rely on unconfoundedness, an assumption that is fundamentally untestable with observed data. To assess the robustness of individual-level causal conclusion with unconfoundedness, this paper proposes a method for sensitivity analysis of the ITE, a way to estimate a range of the ITE under unobserved confounding. The method we develop quantifies unmeasured confounding through a marginal sensitivity model [Ros2002, Tan2006], and adapts the framework of conformal inference to estimate an ITE interval at a given confounding strength. In particular, we formulate this sensitivity analysis problem as a conformal inference problem under distribution shift, and we extend existing methods of covariate-shifted conformal inference to this more general setting. The result is a predictive interval that has guaranteed nominal coverage of the ITE, a method that provides coverage with distribution-free and nonasymptotic guarantees. We evaluate the method on synthetic data and illustrate its application in an observational study.
Social media is increasingly used for large-scale population predictions, such as estimating community health statistics. However, social media users are not typically a representative sample of the intended population -- a "selection bias". Within the social sciences, such a bias is typically addressed with restratification techniques, where observations are reweighted according to how under- or over-sampled their socio-demographic groups are. Yet, restratifaction is rarely evaluated for improving prediction. In this two-part study, we first evaluate standard, "out-of-the-box" restratification techniques, finding they provide no improvement and often even degraded prediction accuracies across four tasks of esimating U.S. county population health statistics from Twitter. The core reasons for degraded performance seem to be tied to their reliance on either sparse or shrunken estimates of each population's socio-demographics. In the second part of our study, we develop and evaluate Robust Poststratification, which consists of three methods to address these problems: (1) estimator redistribution to account for shrinking, as well as (2) adaptive binning and (3) informed smoothing to handle sparse socio-demographic estimates. We show that each of these methods leads to significant improvement in prediction accuracies over the standard restratification approaches. Taken together, Robust Poststratification enables state-of-the-art prediction accuracies, yielding a 53.0% increase in variance explained (R^2) in the case of surveyed life satisfaction, and a 17.8% average increase across all tasks.
In this paper, we propose an analysis of the automorphism group of polar codes, with the scope of designing codes tailored for automorphism ensemble (AE) decoding. We prove the equivalence between the notion of decreasing monomial codes and the universal partial order (UPO) framework for the description of polar codes. Then, we analyze the algebraic properties of the affine automorphisms group of polar codes, providing a novel description of its structure and proposing a classification of automorphisms providing the same results under permutation decoding. Finally, we propose a method to list all the automorphisms that may lead to different candidates under AE decoding; by introducing the concept of redundant automorphisms, we find the maximum number of permutations providing possibly different codeword candidates under AE-SC, proposing a method to list all of them. A numerical analysis of the error correction performance of AE algorithm for the decoding of polar codes concludes the paper.
This work presents a new procedure for obtaining predictive distributions in the context of Gaussian process (GP) modeling, with a relaxation of the interpolation constraints outside some ranges of interest: the mean of the predictive distributions no longer necessarily interpolates the observed values when they are outside ranges of interest, but are simply constrained to remain outside. This method called relaxed Gaussian process (reGP) interpolation provides better predictive distributions in ranges of interest, especially in cases where a stationarity assumption for the GP model is not appropriate. It can be viewed as a goal-oriented method and becomes particularly interesting in Bayesian optimization, for example, for the minimization of an objective function, where good predictive distributions for low function values are important. When the expected improvement criterion and reGP are used for sequentially choosing evaluation points, the convergence of the resulting optimization algorithm is theoretically guaranteed (provided that the function to be optimized lies in the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces attached to the known covariance of the underlying Gaussian process). Experiments indicate that using reGP instead of stationary GP models in Bayesian optimization is beneficial.
We tackle a new task, event graph completion, which aims to predict missing event nodes for event graphs. Existing link prediction or graph completion methods have difficulty dealing with event graphs because they are usually designed for a single large graph such as a social network or a knowledge graph, rather than multiple small dynamic event graphs. Moreover, they can only predict missing edges rather than missing nodes. In this work, we propose to utilize event schema, a template that describes the stereotypical structure of event graphs, to address the above issues. Our schema-guided event graph completion approach first maps an instance event graph to a subgraph of the schema graph by a heuristic subgraph matching algorithm. Then it predicts whether a candidate event node in the schema graph should be added to the instantiated schema subgraph by characterizing two types of local topology of the schema graph: neighbors of the candidate node and the subgraph, and paths that connect the candidate node and the subgraph. These two modules are later combined together for the final prediction. We also propose a self-supervised strategy to construct training samples, as well as an inference algorithm that is specifically designed to complete event graphs. Extensive experimental results on four datasets demonstrate that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance, with 4.3% to 19.4% absolute F1 gains over the best baseline method on the four datasets.
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have been widely applied in various fields due to their significant power on processing graph-structured data. Typical GCN and its variants work under a homophily assumption (i.e., nodes with same class are prone to connect to each other), while ignoring the heterophily which exists in many real-world networks (i.e., nodes with different classes tend to form edges). Existing methods deal with heterophily by mainly aggregating higher-order neighborhoods or combing the immediate representations, which leads to noise and irrelevant information in the result. But these methods did not change the propagation mechanism which works under homophily assumption (that is a fundamental part of GCNs). This makes it difficult to distinguish the representation of nodes from different classes. To address this problem, in this paper we design a novel propagation mechanism, which can automatically change the propagation and aggregation process according to homophily or heterophily between node pairs. To adaptively learn the propagation process, we introduce two measurements of homophily degree between node pairs, which is learned based on topological and attribute information, respectively. Then we incorporate the learnable homophily degree into the graph convolution framework, which is trained in an end-to-end schema, enabling it to go beyond the assumption of homophily. More importantly, we theoretically prove that our model can constrain the similarity of representations between nodes according to their homophily degree. Experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that this new approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods under heterophily or low homophily, and gains competitive performance under homophily.
How can we estimate the importance of nodes in a knowledge graph (KG)? A KG is a multi-relational graph that has proven valuable for many tasks including question answering and semantic search. In this paper, we present GENI, a method for tackling the problem of estimating node importance in KGs, which enables several downstream applications such as item recommendation and resource allocation. While a number of approaches have been developed to address this problem for general graphs, they do not fully utilize information available in KGs, or lack flexibility needed to model complex relationship between entities and their importance. To address these limitations, we explore supervised machine learning algorithms. In particular, building upon recent advancement of graph neural networks (GNNs), we develop GENI, a GNN-based method designed to deal with distinctive challenges involved with predicting node importance in KGs. Our method performs an aggregation of importance scores instead of aggregating node embeddings via predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment. In our evaluation of GENI and existing methods on predicting node importance in real-world KGs with different characteristics, GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than the state of the art.
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