We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that the time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms based on temporal residuals are not applicable. The main idea is to exploit the temporal dependence of conformity scores; thus, the past conformity scores contain information about future ones. Then we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of \texttt{SPCI} compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.
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Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a new paradigm for training machine learning models distributively without sacrificing data security and privacy. Learning models on edge devices such as mobile phones is one of the most common use cases for FL. However, Non-identical independent distributed~(non-IID) data in edge devices easily leads to training failures. Especially, over-parameterized machine learning models can easily be over-fitted on such data, hence, resulting in inefficient federated learning and poor model performance. To overcome the over-fitting issue, we proposed an adaptive dynamic pruning approach for FL, which can dynamically slim the model by dropping out unimportant parameters, hence, preventing over-fittings. Since the machine learning model's parameters react differently for different training samples, adaptive dynamic pruning will evaluate the salience of the model's parameter according to the input training sample, and only retain the salient parameter's gradients when doing back-propagation. We performed comprehensive experiments to evaluate our approach. The results show that our approach by removing the redundant parameters in neural networks can significantly reduce the over-fitting issue and greatly improves the training efficiency. In particular, when training the ResNet-32 on CIFAR-10, our approach reduces the communication cost by 57\%. We further demonstrate the inference acceleration capability of the proposed algorithm. Our approach reduces up to 50\% FLOPs inference of DNNs on edge devices while maintaining the model's quality.
Off-policy evaluation is critical in a number of applications where new policies need to be evaluated offline before online deployment. Most existing methods focus on the expected return, define the target parameter through averaging and provide a point estimator only. In this paper, we develop a novel procedure to produce reliable interval estimators for a target policy's return starting from any initial state. Our proposal accounts for the variability of the return around its expectation, focuses on the individual effect and offers valid uncertainty quantification. Our main idea lies in designing a pseudo policy that generates subsamples as if they were sampled from the target policy so that existing conformal prediction algorithms are applicable to prediction interval construction. Our methods are justified by theories, synthetic data and real data from short-video platforms.
Inferring chemical reaction networks (CRN) from concentration time series is a challenge encouragedby the growing availability of quantitative temporal data at the cellular level. This motivates thedesign of algorithms to infer the preponderant reactions between the molecular species observed ina given biochemical process, and build CRN structure and kinetics models. Existing ODE-basedinference methods such as SINDy resort to least square regression combined with sparsity-enforcingpenalization, such as Lasso. However, we observe that these methods fail to learn sparse modelswhen the input time series are only available in wild type conditions, i.e. without the possibility toplay with combinations of zeroes in the initial conditions. We present a CRN inference algorithmwhich enforces sparsity by inferring reactions in a sequential fashion within a search tree of boundeddepth, ranking the inferred reaction candidates according to the variance of their kinetics on theirsupporting transitions, and re-optimizing the kinetic parameters of the CRN candidates on the wholetrace in a final pass. We show that Reactmine succeeds both on simulation data by retrievinghidden CRNs where SINDy fails, and on two real datasets, one of fluorescence videomicroscopyof cell cycle and circadian clock markers, the other one of biomedical measurements of systemiccircadian biomarkers possibly acting on clock gene expression in peripheral organs, by inferringpreponderant regulations in agreement with previous model-based analyses. The code is available at//gitlab.inria.fr/julmarti/crninf/ together with introductory notebooks.
Machine learning models are often personalized based on information that is protected, sensitive, self-reported, or costly to acquire. These models use information about people, but do not facilitate nor inform their \emph{consent}. Individuals cannot opt out of reporting information that a model needs to personalize their predictions, nor tell if they would benefit from personalization in the first place. In this work, we introduce a new family of prediction models, called \emph{participatory systems}, that allow individuals to opt into personalization at prediction time. We present a model-agnostic algorithm to learn participatory systems for supervised learning tasks where models are personalized with categorical group attributes. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study of participatory systems in clinical prediction tasks, comparing them to common approaches for personalization and imputation. Our results demonstrate that participatory systems can facilitate and inform consent in a way that improves performance and privacy across all groups who report personal data.
Safety has been recognized as the central obstacle to preventing the use of reinforcement learning (RL) for real-world applications. Different methods have been developed to deal with safety concerns in RL. However, learning reliable RL-based solutions usually require a large number of interactions with the environment. Likewise, how to improve the learning efficiency, specifically, how to utilize transfer learning for safe reinforcement learning, has not been well studied. In this work, we propose an adaptive aggregation framework for safety-critical control. Our method comprises two key techniques: 1) we learn to transfer the safety knowledge by aggregating the multiple source tasks and a target task through the attention network; 2) we separate the goal of improving task performance and reducing constraint violations by utilizing a safeguard. Experiment results demonstrate that our algorithm can achieve fewer safety violations while showing better data efficiency compared with several baselines.
Federated learning methods, that is, methods that perform model training using data situated across different sources, whilst simultaneously not having the data leave their original source, are of increasing interest in a number of fields. However, despite this interest, the classes of models for which easily-applicable and sufficiently general approaches are available is limited, excluding many structured probabilistic models. We present a general yet elegant resolution to the aforementioned issue. The approach is based on adopting structured variational inference, an approach widely used in Bayesian machine learning, to the federated setting. Additionally, a communication-efficient variant analogous to the canonical FedAvg algorithm is explored. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithms are demonstrated, and their performance is compared on Bayesian multinomial regression, topic modelling, and mixed model examples.
Bayesian dynamic modeling and forecasting is developed in the setting of sequential time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using synthetic control constructs. Methodological contributions include the development of multivariate dynamic models for time-varying effects across multiple treated units and explicit foci on sequential learning of effects of interventions. Analysis explores the utility of dimension reduction of multiple potential synthetic control variables. These methodological advances are evaluated in a detailed case study in commercial forecasting. This involves in-study evaluation of interventions in a supermarket promotions experiment, with coupled predictive analyses in selected regions of a large-scale commercial system. Generalization of causal predictive inferences from experimental settings to broader populations is a central concern, and one that can be impacted by cross-series dependencies.
The transfer of models trained on labeled datasets in a source domain to unlabeled target domains is made possible by unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). However, when dealing with complex time series models, the transferability becomes challenging due to the dynamic temporal structure that varies between domains, resulting in feature shifts and gaps in the time and frequency representations. Furthermore, tasks in the source and target domains can have vastly different label distributions, making it difficult for UDA to mitigate label shifts and recognize labels that only exist in the target domain. We present RAINCOAT, the first model for both closed-set and universal DA on complex time series. RAINCOAT addresses feature and label shifts by considering both temporal and frequency features, aligning them across domains, and correcting for misalignments to facilitate the detection of private labels. Additionally,RAINCOAT improves transferability by identifying label shifts in target domains. Our experiments with 5 datasets and 13 state-of-the-art UDA methods demonstrate that RAINCOAT can achieve an improvement in performance of up to 16.33%, and can effectively handle both closed-set and universal adaptation.
Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.
Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, such as quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a $ProbSparse$ Self-attention mechanism, which achieves $O(L \log L)$ in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.
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