In the analyses of cluster-randomized trials, a standard approach for covariate adjustment and handling within-cluster correlations is the mixed-model analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). The mixed-model ANCOVA makes stringent assumptions, including normality, linearity, and a compound symmetric correlation structure, which may be challenging to verify and may not hold in practice. When mixed-model ANCOVA assumptions are violated, the validity and efficiency of the model-based inference for the average treatment effect are currently unclear. In this article, we prove that the mixed-model ANCOVA estimator for the average treatment effect is consistent and asymptotically normal under arbitrary misspecification of its working model. Under equal randomization, we further show that the model-based variance estimator for the mixed-model ANCOVA estimator remains consistent, clarifying that the confidence interval given by standard software is asymptotically valid even under model misspecification. Beyond robustness, we also provide a caveat that covariate adjustment via mixed-model ANCOVA may lead to precision loss compared to no adjustment when the covariance structure is misspecified, and describe when a cluster-level ANCOVA becomes more efficient. These results hold under both simple and stratified randomization, and are further illustrated via simulations as well as analyses of three cluster-randomized trials.
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Because it determines a center-outward ordering of observations in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with $d\geq 2$, the concept of statistical depth permits to define quantiles and ranks for multivariate data and use them for various statistical tasks (e.g. inference, hypothesis testing). Whereas many depth functions have been proposed \textit{ad-hoc} in the literature since the seminal contribution of \cite{Tukey75}, not all of them possess the properties desirable to emulate the notion of quantile function for univariate probability distributions. In this paper, we propose an extension of the \textit{integrated rank-weighted} statistical depth (IRW depth in abbreviated form) originally introduced in \cite{IRW}, modified in order to satisfy the property of \textit{affine-invariance}, fulfilling thus all the four key axioms listed in the nomenclature elaborated by \cite{ZuoS00a}. The variant we propose, referred to as the Affine-Invariant IRW depth (AI-IRW in short), involves the covariance/precision matrices of the (supposedly square integrable) $d$-dimensional random vector $X$ under study, in order to take into account the directions along which $X$ is most variable to assign a depth value to any point $x\in \mathbb{R}^d$. The accuracy of the sampling version of the AI-IRW depth is investigated from a nonasymptotic perspective. Namely, a concentration result for the statistical counterpart of the AI-IRW depth is proved. Beyond the theoretical analysis carried out, applications to anomaly detection are considered and numerical results are displayed, providing strong empirical evidence of the relevance of the depth function we propose here.
Missing data is a systemic problem in practical scenarios that causes noise and bias when estimating treatment effects. This makes treatment effect estimation from data with missingness a particularly tricky endeavour. A key reason for this is that standard assumptions on missingness are rendered insufficient due to the presence of an additional variable, treatment, besides the individual and the outcome. Having a treatment variable introduces additional complexity with respect to why some variables are missing that is not fully explored by previous work. In our work we identify a new missingness mechanism, which we term mixed confounded missingness (MCM), where some missingness determines treatment selection and other missingness is determined by treatment selection. Given MCM, we show that naively imputing all data leads to poor performing treatment effects models, as the act of imputation effectively removes information necessary to provide unbiased estimates. However, no imputation at all also leads to biased estimates, as missingness determined by treatment divides the population in distinct subpopulations, where estimates across these populations will be biased. Our solution is selective imputation, where we use insights from MCM to inform precisely which variables should be imputed and which should not. We empirically demonstrate how various learners benefit from selective imputation compared to other solutions for missing data.
A class of models that have been widely used are the exponential random graph (ERG) models, which form a comprehensive family of models that include independent and dyadic edge models, Markov random graphs, and many other graph distributions, in addition to allow the inclusion of covariates that can lead to a better fit of the model. Another increasingly popular class of models in statistical network analysis are stochastic block models (SBMs). They can be used for the purpose of grouping nodes into communities or discovering and analyzing a latent structure of a network. The stochastic block model is a generative model for random graphs that tends to produce graphs containing subsets of nodes characterized by being connected to each other, called communities. Many researchers from various areas have been using computational tools to adjust these models without, however, analyzing their suitability for the data of the networks they are studying. The complexity involved in the estimation process and in the goodness-of-fit verification methodologies for these models can be factors that make the analysis of adequacy difficult and a possible discard of one model in favor of another. And it is clear that the results obtained through an inappropriate model can lead the researcher to very wrong conclusions about the phenomenon studied. The purpose of this work is to present a simple methodology, based on Hypothesis Tests, to verify if there is a model specification error for these two cases widely used in the literature to represent complex networks: the ERGM and the SBM. We believe that this tool can be very useful for those who want to use these models in a more careful way, verifying beforehand if the models are suitable for the data under study.
We study the behavior of error bounds for multiclass classification under suitable margin conditions. For a wide variety of methods we prove that the classification error under a hard-margin condition decreases exponentially fast without any bias-variance trade-off. Different convergence rates can be obtained in correspondence of different margin assumptions. With a self-contained and instructive analysis we are able to generalize known results from the binary to the multiclass setting.
One of the most studied models of SAT is random SAT. In this model, instances are composed from clauses chosen uniformly randomly and independently of each other. This model may be unsatisfactory in that it fails to describe various features of SAT instances, arising in real-world applications. Various modifications have been suggested to define models of industrial SAT. Here, we focus mainly on the aspect of community structure. Namely, here the set of variables consists of a number of disjoint communities, and clauses tend to consist of variables from the same community. Thus, we suggest a model of random industrial SAT, in which the central generalization with respect to random SAT is the additional community structure. There has been a lot of work on the satisfiability threshold of random $k$-SAT, starting with the calculation of the threshold of $2$-SAT, up to the recent result that the threshold exists for sufficiently large $k$. In this paper, we endeavor to study the satisfiability threshold for the proposed model of random industrial SAT. Our main result is that the threshold in this model tends to be smaller than its counterpart for random SAT. Moreover, under some conditions, this threshold even vanishes.
In this paper we give a completely new approach to the problem of covariate selection in linear regression. A covariate or a set of covariates is included only if it is better in the sense of least squares than the same number of Gaussian covariates consisting of i.i.d. $N(0,1)$ random variables. The Gaussian P-value is defined as the probability that the Gaussian covariates are better. It is given in terms of the Beta distribution, it is exact and it holds for all data making it model-free free. The covariate selection procedures require only a cut-off value $\alpha$ for the Gaussian P-value: the default value in this paper is $\alpha=0.01$. The resulting procedures are very simple, very fast, do not overfit and require only least squares. In particular there is no regularization parameter, no data splitting, no use of simulations, no shrinkage and no post selection inference is required. The paper includes the results of simulations, applications to real data sets and theorems on the asymptotic behaviour under the standard linear model. Here the step-wise procedure performs overwhelmingly better than any other procedure we are aware of. An R-package {\it gausscov} is available.
For multivariate stationary time series many important properties, such as partial correlation, graphical models and autoregressive representations are encoded in the inverse of its spectral density matrix. This is not true for nonstationary time series, where the pertinent information lies in the inverse infinite dimensional covariance matrix operator associated with the multivariate time series. This necessitates the study of the covariance of a multivariate nonstationary time series and its relationship to its inverse. We show that if the rows/columns of the infinite dimensional covariance matrix decay at a certain rate then the rate (up to a factor) transfers to the rows/columns of the inverse covariance matrix. This is used to obtain a nonstationary autoregressive representation of the time series and a Baxter-type bound between the parameters of the autoregressive infinite representation and the corresponding finite autoregressive projection. The aforementioned results lay the foundation for the subsequent analysis of locally stationary time series. In particular, we show that smoothness properties on the covariance matrix transfer to (i) the inverse covariance (ii) the parameters of the vector autoregressive representation and (iii) the partial covariances. All results are set up in such a way that the constants involved depend only on the eigenvalue of the covariance matrix and can be applied in the high-dimensional settings with non-diverging eigenvalues.
Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. We perform a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. Apart from that, we illustrate our method on real EEG and MEG data sets. The proposed covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed for accurate dipole localization, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, such as in combined EEG/fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated.
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