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We consider the problem of learning and using predictions for warm start algorithms with predictions. In this setting, an algorithm is given an instance of a problem, and a prediction of the solution. The runtime of the algorithm is bounded by the distance from the predicted solution to the true solution of the instance. Previous work has shown that when instances are drawn iid from some distribution, it is possible to learn an approximately optimal fixed prediction (Dinitz et al, NeurIPS 2021), and in the adversarial online case, it is possible to compete with the best fixed prediction in hindsight (Khodak et al, NeurIPS 2022). In this work we give competitive guarantees against stronger benchmarks that consider a set of $k$ predictions $\mathbf{P}$. That is, the "optimal offline cost" to solve an instance with respect to $\mathbf{P}$ is the distance from the true solution to the closest member of $\mathbf{P}$. This is analogous to the $k$-medians objective function. In the distributional setting, we show a simple strategy that incurs cost that is at most an $O(k)$ factor worse than the optimal offline cost. We then show a way to leverage learnable coarse information, in the form of partitions of the instance space into groups of "similar" instances, that allows us to potentially avoid this $O(k)$ factor. Finally, we consider an online version of the problem, where we compete against offline strategies that are allowed to maintain a moving set of $k$ predictions or "trajectories," and are charged for how much the predictions move. We give an algorithm that does at most $O(k^4 \ln^2 k)$ times as much work as any offline strategy of $k$ trajectories. This algorithm is deterministic (robust to an adaptive adversary), and oblivious to the setting of $k$. Thus the guarantee holds for all $k$ simultaneously.

We study how to construct a stochastic process on a finite interval with given `roughness' and finite joint moments of marginal distributions. We first extend Ciesielski's isomorphism along a general sequence of partitions, and provide a characterization of H\"older regularity of a function in terms of its Schauder coefficients. Using this characterization we provide a better (pathwise) estimator of H\"older exponent. As an additional application, we construct fake (fractional) Brownian motions with some path properties and finite moments of marginal distributions same as (fractional) Brownian motions. These belong to non-Gaussian families of stochastic processes which are statistically difficult to distinguish from real (fractional) Brownian motions.

The evaluation of text-generative vision-language models is a challenging yet crucial endeavor. By addressing the limitations of existing Visual Question Answering (VQA) benchmarks and proposing innovative evaluation methodologies, our research seeks to advance our understanding of these models' capabilities. We propose a novel VQA benchmark based on well-known visual classification datasets which allows a granular evaluation of text-generative vision-language models and their comparison with discriminative vision-language models. To improve the assessment of coarse answers on fine-grained classification tasks, we suggest using the semantic hierarchy of the label space to ask automatically generated follow-up questions about the ground-truth category. Finally, we compare traditional NLP and LLM-based metrics for the problem of evaluating model predictions given ground-truth answers. We perform a human evaluation study upon which we base our decision on the final metric. We apply our benchmark to a suite of vision-language models and show a detailed comparison of their abilities on object, action, and attribute classification. Our contributions aim to lay the foundation for more precise and meaningful assessments, facilitating targeted progress in the exciting field of vision-language modeling.

We propose an algorithm to construct optimal exact designs (EDs). Most of the work in the optimal regression design literature focuses on the approximate design (AD) paradigm due to its desired properties, including the optimality verification conditions derived by Kiefer (1959, 1974). ADs may have unbalanced weights, and practitioners may have difficulty implementing them with a designated run size $n$. Some EDs are constructed using rounding methods to get an integer number of runs at each support point of an AD, but this approach may not yield optimal results. To construct EDs, one may need to perform new combinatorial constructions for each $n$, and there is no unified approach to construct them. Therefore, we develop a systematic way to construct EDs for any given $n$. Our method can transform ADs into EDs while retaining high statistical efficiency in two steps. The first step involves constructing an AD by utilizing the convex nature of many design criteria. The second step employs a simulated annealing algorithm to search for the ED stochastically. Through several applications, we demonstrate the utility of our method for various design problems. Additionally, we show that the design efficiency approaches unity as the number of design points increases.

Stability of the BDF methods of order up to five for parabolic equations can be established by the energy technique via Nevanlinna--Odeh multipliers. The nonexistence of Nevanlinna--Odeh multipliers makes the six-step BDF method special; however, the energy technique was recently extended by the authors in [Akrivis et al., SIAM J. Numer. Anal. \textbf{59} (2021) 2449--2472] and covers all six stable BDF methods. The seven-step BDF method is unstable for parabolic equations, since it is not even zero-stable. In this work, we construct and analyze a stable linear combination of two non zero-stable schemes, the seven-step BDF method and its shifted counterpart, referred to as WSBDF7 method. The stability regions of the WSBDF$q, q\leqslant 7$, with a weight $\vartheta\geqslant1$, increase as $\vartheta$ increases, are larger than the stability regions of the classical BDF$q,$ corresponding to $\vartheta=1$. We determine novel and suitable multipliers for the WSBDF7 method and establish stability for parabolic equations by the energy technique. The proposed approach is applicable for mean curvature flow, gradient flows, fractional equations and nonlinear equations.

Distillation is the task of replacing a complicated machine learning model with a simpler model that approximates the original [BCNM06,HVD15]. Despite many practical applications, basic questions about the extent to which models can be distilled, and the runtime and amount of data needed to distill, remain largely open. To study these questions, we initiate a general theory of distillation, defining PAC-distillation in an analogous way to PAC-learning [Val84]. As applications of this theory: (1) we propose new algorithms to extract the knowledge stored in the trained weights of neural networks -- we show how to efficiently distill neural networks into succinct, explicit decision tree representations when possible by using the ``linear representation hypothesis''; and (2) we prove that distillation can be much cheaper than learning from scratch, and make progress on characterizing its complexity.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are simulation models used in economics to overcome some of the limitations of traditional frameworks based on general equilibrium assumptions. However, agents within an ABM follow predetermined, not fully rational, behavioural rules which can be cumbersome to design and difficult to justify. Here we leverage multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) to expand the capabilities of ABMs with the introduction of fully rational agents that learn their policy by interacting with the environment and maximising a reward function. Specifically, we propose a 'Rational macro ABM' (R-MABM) framework by extending a paradigmatic macro ABM from the economic literature. We show that gradually substituting ABM firms in the model with RL agents, trained to maximise profits, allows for a thorough study of the impact of rationality on the economy. We find that RL agents spontaneously learn three distinct strategies for maximising profits, with the optimal strategy depending on the level of market competition and rationality. We also find that RL agents with independent policies, and without the ability to communicate with each other, spontaneously learn to segregate into different strategic groups, thus increasing market power and overall profits. Finally, we find that a higher degree of rationality in the economy always improves the macroeconomic environment as measured by total output, depending on the specific rational policy, this can come at the cost of higher instability. Our R-MABM framework is general, it allows for stable multi-agent learning, and represents a principled and robust direction to extend existing economic simulators.

Matching on a low dimensional vector of scalar covariates consists of constructing groups of individuals in which each individual in a group is within a pre-specified distance from an individual in another group. However, matching in high dimensional spaces is more challenging because the distance can be sensitive to implementation details, caliper width, and measurement error of observations. To partially address these problems, we propose to use extensive sensitivity analyses and identify the main sources of variation and bias. We illustrate these concepts by examining the racial disparity in all-cause mortality in the US using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2006). In particular, we match African Americans to Caucasian Americans on age, gender, BMI and objectively measured physical activity (PA). PA is measured every minute using accelerometers for up to seven days and then transformed into an empirical distribution of all of the minute-level observations. The Wasserstein metric is used as the measure of distance between these participant-specific distributions.

With the recent success of generative models in image and text, the evaluation of generative models has gained a lot of attention. Whereas most generative models are compared in terms of scalar values such as Frechet Inception Distance (FID) or Inception Score (IS), in the last years (Sajjadi et al., 2018) proposed a definition of precision-recall curve to characterize the closeness of two distributions. Since then, various approaches to precision and recall have seen the light (Kynkaanniemi et al., 2019; Naeem et al., 2020; Park & Kim, 2023). They center their attention on the extreme values of precision and recall, but apart from this fact, their ties are elusive. In this paper, we unify most of these approaches under the same umbrella, relying on the work of (Simon et al., 2019). Doing so, we were able not only to recover entire curves, but also to expose the sources of the accounted pitfalls of the concerned metrics. We also provide consistency results that go well beyond the ones presented in the corresponding literature. Last, we study the different behaviors of the curves obtained experimentally.