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We consider semi-supervised binary classification for applications in which data points are naturally grouped (e.g., survey responses grouped by state) and the labeled data is biased (e.g., survey respondents are not representative of the population). The groups overlap in the feature space and consequently the input-output patterns are related across the groups. To model the inherent structure in such data, we assume the partition-projected class-conditional invariance across groups, defined in terms of the group-agnostic feature space. We demonstrate that under this assumption, the group carries additional information about the class, over the group-agnostic features, with provably improved area under the ROC curve. Further assuming invariance of partition-projected class-conditional distributions across both labeled and unlabeled data, we derive a semi-supervised algorithm that explicitly leverages the structure to learn an optimal, group-aware, probability-calibrated classifier, despite the bias in the labeled data. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithm over suitable baselines and ablative models, spanning standard supervised and semi-supervised learning approaches, with and without incorporating the group directly as a feature.

Monitoring and managing Earth's forests in an informed manner is an important requirement for addressing challenges like biodiversity loss and climate change. While traditional in situ or aerial campaigns for forest assessments provide accurate data for analysis at regional level, scaling them to entire countries and beyond with high temporal resolution is hardly possible. In this work, we propose a method based on deep ensembles that densely estimates forest structure variables at country-scale with 10-meter resolution, using freely available satellite imagery as input. Our method jointly transforms Sentinel-2 optical images and Sentinel-1 synthetic-aperture radar images into maps of five different forest structure variables: 95th height percentile, mean height, density, Gini coefficient, and fractional cover. We train and test our model on reference data from 41 airborne laser scanning missions across Norway and demonstrate that it is able to generalize to unseen test regions, achieving normalized mean absolute errors between 11% and 15%, depending on the variable. Our work is also the first to propose a variant of so-called Bayesian deep learning to densely predict multiple forest structure variables with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates from satellite imagery. The uncertainty information increases the trustworthiness of the model and its suitability for downstream tasks that require reliable confidence estimates as a basis for decision making. We present an extensive set of experiments to validate the accuracy of the predicted maps as well as the quality of the predicted uncertainties. To demonstrate scalability, we provide Norway-wide maps for the five forest structure variables.

Automated Machine Learning-based systems' integration into a wide range of tasks has expanded as a result of their performance and speed. Although there are numerous advantages to employing ML-based systems, if they are not interpretable, they should not be used in critical, high-risk applications where human lives are at risk. To address this issue, researchers and businesses have been focusing on finding ways to improve the interpretability of complex ML systems, and several such methods have been developed. Indeed, there are so many developed techniques that it is difficult for practitioners to choose the best among them for their applications, even when using evaluation metrics. As a result, the demand for a selection tool, a meta-explanation technique based on a high-quality evaluation metric, is apparent. In this paper, we present a local meta-explanation technique which builds on top of the truthfulness metric, which is a faithfulness-based metric. We demonstrate the effectiveness of both the technique and the metric by concretely defining all the concepts and through experimentation.

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple observational and interventional studies to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We derive a likelihood characterisation for the overall data that leads us to extend a previous EM-based algorithm from the case of a single study to that of multiple ones. The new algorithm learns to approximate the (unidentifiability) region of model parameters from such mixed data sources. On this basis, it delivers interval approximations to counterfactual results, which collapse to points in the identifiable case. The algorithm is very general, it works on semi-Markovian models with discrete variables and can compute any counterfactual. Moreover, it automatically determines if a problem is feasible (the parameter region being nonempty), which is a necessary step not to yield incorrect results. Systematic numerical experiments show the effectiveness and accuracy of the algorithm, while hinting at the benefits of integrating heterogeneous data to get informative bounds in case of unidentifiability.

Causal learning is the key to obtaining stable predictions and answering \textit{what if} problems in decision-makings. In causal learning, it is central to seek methods to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. The Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) is one of the prevalent methods to estimate ATE. However, the DML estimators can suffer from an \textit{error-compounding issue} and even give extreme estimates when the propensity scores are close to 0 or 1. Previous studies have overcome this issue through some empirical tricks such as propensity score trimming, yet none of the existing works solves it from a theoretical standpoint. In this paper, we propose a \textit{Robust Causal Learning (RCL)} method to offset the deficiencies of DML estimators. Theoretically, the RCL estimators i) satisfy the (higher-order) orthogonal condition and are as \textit{consistent and doubly robust} as the DML estimators, and ii) get rid of the error-compounding issue. Empirically, the comprehensive experiments show that: i) the RCL estimators give more stable estimations of the causal parameters than DML; ii) the RCL estimators outperform traditional estimators and their variants when applying different machine learning models on both simulation and benchmark datasets, and a mimic consumer credit dataset generated by WGAN.

Bayesian networks have been used as a mechanism to represent the joint distribution of multiple random variables in a flexible yet interpretable manner. One major challenge in learning the structure of a Bayesian network is how to model networks which include a mixture of continuous and discrete random variables, known as hybrid Bayesian networks. This paper overviews the literature on approaches to handle hybrid Bayesian networks. Typically one of two approaches is taken: either the data are considered to have a joint distribution which is designed for a mixture of discrete and continuous variables, or continuous random variables are discretized, resulting in discrete Bayesian networks. In this paper, we propose a strategy to model all random variables as Gaussian, referred to it as {\it Run it As Gaussian (RAG)}. We demonstrate that RAG results in more reliable estimates of graph structures theoretically and by simulation studies, than converting continuous random variables to discrete. Both strategies are also implemented on a childhood obesity data set. The two different strategies give rise to significant differences in the optimal graph structures, with the results of the simulation study suggesting that our strategy is more reliable.

We provide results that exactly quantify how data augmentation affects the convergence rate and variance of estimates. They lead to some unexpected findings: Contrary to common intuition, data augmentation may increase rather than decrease the uncertainty of estimates, such as the empirical prediction risk. Our main theoretical tool is a limit theorem for functions of randomly transformed, high-dimensional random vectors. The proof draws on work in probability on noise stability of functions of many variables. The pathological behavior we identify is not a consequence of complex models, but can occur even in the simplest settings -- one of our examples is a ridge regressor with two parameters. On the other hand, our results also show that data augmentation can have real, quantifiable benefits.

Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.

Graphical causal inference as pioneered by Judea Pearl arose from research on artificial intelligence (AI), and for a long time had little connection to the field of machine learning. This article discusses where links have been and should be established, introducing key concepts along the way. It argues that the hard open problems of machine learning and AI are intrinsically related to causality, and explains how the field is beginning to understand them.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.