This paper shows a novel machine learning model for realized volatility (RV) prediction using a normalizing flow, an invertible neural network. Since RV is known to be skewed and have a fat tail, previous methods transform RV into values that follow a latent distribution with an explicit shape and then apply a prediction model. However, knowing that shape is non-trivial, and the transformation result influences the prediction model. This paper proposes to jointly train the transformation and the prediction model. The training process follows a maximum-likelihood objective function that is derived from the assumption that the prediction residuals on the transformed RV time series are homogeneously Gaussian. The objective function is further approximated using an expectation-maximum algorithm. On a dataset of 100 stocks, our method significantly outperforms other methods using analytical or naive neural-network transformations.
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This paper investigates the feasibility of machine learning (ML)-based pilotless spatial multiplexing in multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems. Especially, it is shown that by training the transmitter and receiver jointly, the transmitter can learn such constellation shapes for the spatial streams which facilitate completely blind separation and detection by the simultaneously learned receiver. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time ML-based spatial multiplexing without channel estimation pilots is demonstrated. The results show that the learned pilotless scheme can outperform a conventional pilot-based system by as much as 15-20% in terms of spectral efficiency, depending on the modulation order and signal-to-noise ratio.
In-context learning (ICL) emerges as a promising capability of large language models (LLMs) by providing them with demonstration examples to perform diverse tasks. However, the underlying mechanism of how LLMs learn from the provided context remains under-explored. In this paper, we investigate the working mechanism of ICL through an information flow lens. Our findings reveal that label words in the demonstration examples function as anchors: (1) semantic information aggregates into label word representations during the shallow computation layers' processing; (2) the consolidated information in label words serves as a reference for LLMs' final predictions. Based on these insights, we introduce an anchor re-weighting method to improve ICL performance, a demonstration compression technique to expedite inference, and an analysis framework for diagnosing ICL errors in GPT2-XL. The promising applications of our findings again validate the uncovered ICL working mechanism and pave the way for future studies.
This paper presents a novel approach to human image colorization by fine-tuning the InstructPix2Pix model, which integrates a language model (GPT-3) with a text-to-image model (Stable Diffusion). Despite the original InstructPix2Pix model's proficiency in editing images based on textual instructions, it exhibits limitations in the focused domain of colorization. To address this, we fine-tuned the model using the IMDB-WIKI dataset, pairing black-and-white images with a diverse set of colorization prompts generated by ChatGPT. This paper contributes by (1) applying fine-tuning techniques to stable diffusion models specifically for colorization tasks, and (2) employing generative models to create varied conditioning prompts. After finetuning, our model outperforms the original InstructPix2Pix model on multiple metrics quantitatively, and we produce more realistically colored images qualitatively. The code for this project is provided on the GitHub Repository //github.com/AllenAnZifeng/DeepLearning282.
Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) provides a practical and effective approach for equipping deep learning models with uncertainty estimates in the form of set-valued predictions which are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with high probability. Despite the appeal of this coverage guarantee, these sets may not be efficient: the size and contents of the prediction sets are not directly controlled, and instead depend on the underlying model and choice of score function. To remedy this, recent work has proposed learning model and score function parameters using data to directly optimize the efficiency of the ICP prediction sets. While appealing, the generalization theory for such an approach is lacking: direct optimization of empirical efficiency may yield prediction sets that are either no longer efficient on test data, or no longer obtain the required coverage on test data. In this work, we use PAC-Bayes theory to obtain generalization bounds on both the coverage and the efficiency of set-valued predictors which can be directly optimized to maximize efficiency while satisfying a desired test coverage. In contrast to prior work, our framework allows us to utilize the entire calibration dataset to learn the parameters of the model and score function, instead of requiring a separate hold-out set for obtaining test-time coverage guarantees. We leverage these theoretical results to provide a practical algorithm for using calibration data to simultaneously fine-tune the parameters of a model and score function while guaranteeing test-time coverage and efficiency of the resulting prediction sets. We evaluate the approach on regression and classification tasks, and outperform baselines calibrated using a Hoeffding bound-based PAC guarantee on ICP, especially in the low-data regime.
We present LaMPilot, a novel framework for planning in the field of autonomous driving, rethinking the task as a code-generation process that leverages established behavioral primitives. This approach aims to address the challenge of interpreting and executing spontaneous user instructions such as "overtake the car ahead," which have typically posed difficulties for existing frameworks. We introduce the LaMPilot benchmark specifically designed to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in translating human directives into actionable driving policies. We then evaluate a wide range of state-of-the-art code generation language models on tasks from the LaMPilot Benchmark. The results of the experiments showed that GPT-4, with human feedback, achieved an impressive task completion rate of 92.7% and a minimal collision rate of 0.9%. To encourage further investigation in this area, our code and dataset will be made available.
The growing interest in novel view synthesis, driven by Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) models, is hindered by scalability issues due to their reliance on precisely annotated multi-view images. Recent models address this by fine-tuning large text2image diffusion models on synthetic multi-view data. Despite robust zero-shot generalization, they may need post-processing and can face quality issues due to the synthetic-real domain gap. This paper introduces a novel pipeline for unsupervised training of a pose-conditioned diffusion model on single-category datasets. With the help of pretrained self-supervised Vision Transformers (DINOv2), we identify object poses by clustering the dataset through comparing visibility and locations of specific object parts. The pose-conditioned diffusion model, trained on pose labels, and equipped with cross-frame attention at inference time ensures cross-view consistency, that is further aided by our novel hard-attention guidance. Our model, MIRAGE, surpasses prior work in novel view synthesis on real images. Furthermore, MIRAGE is robust to diverse textures and geometries, as demonstrated with our experiments on synthetic images generated with pretrained Stable Diffusion.
This study performs BERT-based analysis, which is a representative contextualized language model, on corporate disclosure data to predict impending bankruptcies. Prior literature on bankruptcy prediction mainly focuses on developing more sophisticated prediction methodologies with financial variables. However, in our study, we focus on improving the quality of input dataset. Specifically, we employ BERT model to perform sentiment analysis on MD&A disclosures. We show that BERT outperforms dictionary-based predictions and Word2Vec-based predictions in terms of adjusted R-square in logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor (kNN-5), and linear kernel support vector machine (SVM). Further, instead of pre-training the BERT model from scratch, we apply self-learning with confidence-based filtering to corporate disclosure data (10-K). We achieve the accuracy rate of 91.56% and demonstrate that the domain adaptation procedure brings a significant improvement in prediction accuracy.
This paper presents a novel deep learning model based on the transformer architecture to predict the load-deformation behavior of large bored piles in Bangkok subsoil. The model encodes the soil profile and pile features as tokenization input, and generates the load-deformation curve as output. The model also incorporates the previous sequential data of load-deformation curve into the decoder to improve the prediction accuracy. The model also incorporates the previous sequential data of load-deformation curve into the decoder. The model shows a satisfactory accuracy and generalization ability for the load-deformation curve prediction, with a mean absolute error of 5.72% for the test data. The model could also be used for parametric analysis and design optimization of piles under different soil and pile conditions, pile cross section, pile length and type of pile.
In this paper, we propose a novel Feature Decomposition and Reconstruction Learning (FDRL) method for effective facial expression recognition. We view the expression information as the combination of the shared information (expression similarities) across different expressions and the unique information (expression-specific variations) for each expression. More specifically, FDRL mainly consists of two crucial networks: a Feature Decomposition Network (FDN) and a Feature Reconstruction Network (FRN). In particular, FDN first decomposes the basic features extracted from a backbone network into a set of facial action-aware latent features to model expression similarities. Then, FRN captures the intra-feature and inter-feature relationships for latent features to characterize expression-specific variations, and reconstructs the expression feature. To this end, two modules including an intra-feature relation modeling module and an inter-feature relation modeling module are developed in FRN. Experimental results on both the in-the-lab databases (including CK+, MMI, and Oulu-CASIA) and the in-the-wild databases (including RAF-DB and SFEW) show that the proposed FDRL method consistently achieves higher recognition accuracy than several state-of-the-art methods. This clearly highlights the benefit of feature decomposition and reconstruction for classifying expressions.
In this paper, we propose the joint learning attention and recurrent neural network (RNN) models for multi-label classification. While approaches based on the use of either model exist (e.g., for the task of image captioning), training such existing network architectures typically require pre-defined label sequences. For multi-label classification, it would be desirable to have a robust inference process, so that the prediction error would not propagate and thus affect the performance. Our proposed model uniquely integrates attention and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, which not only addresses the above problem but also allows one to identify visual objects of interests with varying sizes without the prior knowledge of particular label ordering. More importantly, label co-occurrence information can be jointly exploited by our LSTM model. Finally, by advancing the technique of beam search, prediction of multiple labels can be efficiently achieved by our proposed network model.
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