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This paper presents a comparison of two multi-fidelity methods for the forward uncertainty quantification of a naval engineering problem. Specifically, we consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic resistance of a roll-on/roll-off passengers ferry advancing in calm water and subject to two operational uncertainties (ship speed and payload). The first four statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis), and the probability density function for such quantity of interest (QoI) are computed with two multi-fidelity methods, i.e., the Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC) method and an adaptive multi-fidelity Stochastic Radial Basis Functions (SRBF) algorithm. The QoI is evaluated via computational fluid dynamics simulations, which are performed with the in-house unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) multi-grid solver $\chi$navis. The different fidelities employed by both methods are obtained by stopping the RANS solver at different grid levels of the multi-grid cycle. The performance of both methods are presented and discussed: in a nutshell, the findings suggest that, at least for the current implementations of both algorithms, MISC could be preferred whenever a limited computational budget is available, whereas for a larger computational budget SRBFs seem to be preferable, thanks to its robustness to the numerical noise in the evaluations of the QoI.

COVID-19 vaccines have been rolled out in many countries and with them a number of vaccination certificates. For instance, the EU is utilizing a digital certificate in the form of a QR-code that is digitally signed and can be easily validated throughout all EU countries. In this paper, we investigate the current state of the COVID-19 vaccination certificate market in the darkweb with a focus on the EU Digital Green Certificate (DGC). We investigate $17$ marketplaces and $10$ vendor shops, that include vaccination certificates in their listings. Our results suggest that a multitude of sellers in both types of platforms are advertising selling capabilities. According to their claims, it is possible to buy fake vaccination certificates issued in most countries worldwide. We demonstrate some examples of such sellers, including how they advertise their capabilities, and the methods they claim to be using to provide their services. We highlight two particular cases of vendor shops, with one of them showing an elevated degree of professionalism, showcasing forged valid certificates, the validity of which we verify using two different national mobile COVID-19 applications.

Twitter is perhaps the social media more amenable for research. It requires only a few steps to obtain information, and there are plenty of libraries that can help in this regard. Nonetheless, knowing whether a particular event is expressed on Twitter is a challenging task that requires a considerable collection of tweets. This proposal aims to facilitate, to a researcher interested, the process of mining events on Twitter by opening a collection of processed information taken from Twitter since December 2015. The events could be related to natural disasters, health issues, and people's mobility, among other studies that can be pursued with the library proposed. Different applications are presented in this contribution to illustrate the library's capabilities: an exploratory analysis of the topics discovered in tweets, a study on similarity among dialects of the Spanish language, and a mobility report on different countries. In summary, the Python library presented is applied to different domains and retrieves a plethora of information in terms of frequencies by day of words and bi-grams of words for Arabic, English, Spanish, and Russian languages. As well as mobility information related to the number of travels among locations for more than 200 countries or territories.

We propose a model-free framework for sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects (ITEs), building upon ideas from conformal inference. For any unit, our procedure reports the $\Gamma$-value, a number which quantifies the minimum strength of confounding needed to explain away the evidence for ITE. Our approach rests on the reliable predictive inference of counterfactuals and ITEs in situations where the training data is confounded. Under the marginal sensitivity model of Tan (2006), we characterize the shift between the distribution of the observations and that of the counterfactuals. We first develop a general method for predictive inference of test samples from a shifted distribution; we then leverage this to construct covariate-dependent prediction sets for counterfactuals. No matter the value of the shift, these prediction sets (resp. approximately) achieve marginal coverage if the propensity score is known exactly (resp. estimated). We describe a distinct procedure also attaining coverage, however, conditional on the training data. In the latter case, we prove a sharpness result showing that for certain classes of prediction problems, the prediction intervals cannot possibly be tightened. We verify the validity and performance of the new methods via simulation studies and apply them to analyze real datasets.

In [Ecological Complexity 44 (2020) Art. 100885, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2020.100885] a continuous-time compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is presented with Portugal as case study, from 2 March to 4 May 2020, and the local stability of the Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) is analysed. Here, we propose an analogous discrete-time model and, using a suitable Lyapunov function, we prove the global stability of the DFE point. Using COVID-19 real data, we show, through numerical simulations, the consistence of the obtained theoretical results.

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has crushed daily routines and is still rampaging through the world. Existing solution for nonpharmaceutical interventions usually needs to timely and precisely select a subset of residential urban areas for containment or even quarantine, where the spatial distribution of confirmed cases has been considered as a key criterion for the subset selection. While such containment measure has successfully stopped or slowed down the spread of COVID-19 in some countries, it is criticized for being inefficient or ineffective, as the statistics of confirmed cases are usually time-delayed and coarse-grained. To tackle the issues, we propose C-Watcher, a novel data-driven framework that aims at screening every neighborhood in a target city and predicting infection risks, prior to the spread of COVID-19 from epicenters to the city. In terms of design, C-Watcher collects large-scale long-term human mobility data from Baidu Maps, then characterizes every residential neighborhood in the city using a set of features based on urban mobility patterns. Furthermore, to transfer the firsthand knowledge (witted in epicenters) to the target city before local outbreaks, we adopt a novel adversarial encoder framework to learn "city-invariant" representations from the mobility-related features for precise early detection of high-risk neighborhoods, even before any confirmed cases known, in the target city. We carried out extensive experiments on C-Watcher using the real-data records in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreaks, where the results demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of C-Watcher for early detection of high-risk neighborhoods from a large number of cities.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a devastating effect on the health and well-being of the global population. A critical step in the fight against COVID-19 is effective screening of infected patients, with one of the key screening approaches being radiological imaging using chest radiography. Motivated by this, a number of artificial intelligence (AI) systems based on deep learning have been proposed and results have been shown to be quite promising in terms of accuracy in detecting patients infected with COVID-19 using chest radiography images. However, to the best of the authors' knowledge, these developed AI systems have been closed source and unavailable to the research community for deeper understanding and extension, and unavailable for public access and use. Therefore, in this study we introduce COVID-Net, a deep convolutional neural network design tailored for the detection of COVID-19 cases from chest radiography images that is open source and available to the general public. We also describe the chest radiography dataset leveraged to train COVID-Net, which we will refer to as COVIDx and is comprised of 5941 posteroanterior chest radiography images across 2839 patient cases from two open access data repositories. Furthermore, we investigate how COVID-Net makes predictions using an explainability method in an attempt to gain deeper insights into critical factors associated with COVID cases, which can aid clinicians in improved screening. By no means a production-ready solution, the hope is that the open access COVID-Net, along with the description on constructing the open source COVIDx dataset, will be leveraged and build upon by both researchers and citizen data scientists alike to accelerate the development of highly accurate yet practical deep learning solutions for detecting COVID-19 cases and accelerate treatment of those who need it the most.

Many current applications use recommendations in order to modify the natural user behavior, such as to increase the number of sales or the time spent on a website. This results in a gap between the final recommendation objective and the classical setup where recommendation candidates are evaluated by their coherence with past user behavior, by predicting either the missing entries in the user-item matrix, or the most likely next event. To bridge this gap, we optimize a recommendation policy for the task of increasing the desired outcome versus the organic user behavior. We show this is equivalent to learning to predict recommendation outcomes under a fully random recommendation policy. To this end, we propose a new domain adaptation algorithm that learns from logged data containing outcomes from a biased recommendation policy and predicts recommendation outcomes according to random exposure. We compare our method against state-of-the-art factorization methods, in addition to new approaches of causal recommendation and show significant improvements.

Sentiment Analysis in Arabic is a challenging task due to the rich morphology of the language. Moreover, the task is further complicated when applied to Twitter data that is known to be highly informal and noisy. In this paper, we develop a hybrid method for sentiment analysis for Arabic tweets for a specific Arabic dialect which is the Saudi Dialect. Several features were engineered and evaluated using a feature backward selection method. Then a hybrid method that combines a corpus-based and lexicon-based method was developed for several classification models (two-way, three-way, four-way). The best F1-score for each of these models was (69.9,61.63,55.07) respectively.

This project addresses the problem of sentiment analysis in twitter; that is classifying tweets according to the sentiment expressed in them: positive, negative or neutral. Twitter is an online micro-blogging and social-networking platform which allows users to write short status updates of maximum length 140 characters. It is a rapidly expanding service with over 200 million registered users - out of which 100 million are active users and half of them log on twitter on a daily basis - generating nearly 250 million tweets per day. Due to this large amount of usage we hope to achieve a reflection of public sentiment by analysing the sentiments expressed in the tweets. Analysing the public sentiment is important for many applications such as firms trying to find out the response of their products in the market, predicting political elections and predicting socioeconomic phenomena like stock exchange. The aim of this project is to develop a functional classifier for accurate and automatic sentiment classification of an unknown tweet stream.