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We propose a data-driven approach for propagating uncertainty in stochastic power grid simulations and apply it to the estimation of transmission line failure probabilities. A reduced-order equation governing the evolution of the observed line energy probability density function is derived from the Fokker--Planck equation of the full-order continuous Markov process. Our method consists of estimates produced by numerically integrating this reduced equation. Numerical experiments for scalar- and vector-valued energy functions are conducted using the classical multimachine model under spatiotemporally correlated noise perturbation. The method demonstrates a more sample-efficient approach for computing probabilities of tail events when compared with kernel density estimation. Moreover, it produces vastly more accurate estimates of joint event occurrence when compared with independent models.

Correlation coefficients play a pivotal role in quantifying linear relationships between random variables. Yet, their application to time series data is very challenging due to temporal dependencies. This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the statistical significance of correlation coefficients in time series data, addressing the limitations of traditional methods based on the concept of effective degrees of freedom (or effective sample size, ESS). These effective degrees of freedom represent the independent sample size that would yield comparable test statistics under the assumption of no temporal correlation. We propose to assume a parametric Gaussian form for the autocorrelation function. We show that this assumption, motivated by a Laplace approximation, enables a simple estimator of the ESS that depends only on the temporal derivatives of the time series. Through numerical experiments, we show that the proposed approach yields accurate statistics while significantly reducing computational overhead. In addition, we evaluate the adequacy of our approach on real physiological signals, for assessing the connectivity measures in electrophysiology and detecting correlated arm movements in motion capture data. Our methodology provides a simple tool for researchers working with time series data, enabling robust hypothesis testing in the presence of temporal dependencies.

Local discontinuous Galerkin methods are developed for solving second order and fourth order time-dependent partial differential equations defined on static 2D manifolds. These schemes are second-order accurate with surfaces triangulized by planar triangles and careful design of numerical fluxes. The schemes are proven to be energy stable. Various numerical experiments are provided to validate the new schemes.

Conversational question answering systems often rely on semantic parsing to enable interactive information retrieval, which involves the generation of structured database queries from a natural language input. For information-seeking conversations about facts stored within a knowledge graph, dialogue utterances are transformed into graph queries in a process that is called knowledge-based conversational question answering. This paper evaluates the performance of large language models that have not been explicitly pre-trained on this task. Through a series of experiments on an extensive benchmark dataset, we compare models of varying sizes with different prompting techniques and identify common issue types in the generated output. Our results demonstrate that large language models are capable of generating graph queries from dialogues, with significant improvements achievable through few-shot prompting and fine-tuning techniques, especially for smaller models that exhibit lower zero-shot performance.

We investigate whether general-domain large language models such as GPT-4 Turbo can perform risk stratification and predict post-operative outcome measures using a description of the procedure and a patient's clinical notes derived from the electronic health record. We examine predictive performance on 8 different tasks: prediction of ASA Physical Status Classification, hospital admission, ICU admission, unplanned admission, hospital mortality, PACU Phase 1 duration, hospital duration, and ICU duration. Few-shot and chain-of-thought prompting improves predictive performance for several of the tasks. We achieve F1 scores of 0.50 for ASA Physical Status Classification, 0.81 for ICU admission, and 0.86 for hospital mortality. Performance on duration prediction tasks were universally poor across all prompt strategies. Current generation large language models can assist clinicians in perioperative risk stratification on classification tasks and produce high-quality natural language summaries and explanations.

We address the choice of penalty parameter in the Smoothness-Penalized Deconvolution (SPeD) method of estimating a probability density under additive measurement error. Cross-validation gives an unbiased estimate of the risk (for the present sample size n) with a given penalty parameter, and this function can be minimized as a function of the penalty parameter. Least-squares cross-validation, which has been proposed for the similar Deconvoluting Kernel Density Estimator (DKDE), performs quite poorly for SPeD. We instead estimate the risk function for a smaller sample size n_1 < n with a given penalty parameter, using this to choose the penalty parameter for sample size n_1, and then use the asymptotics of the optimal penalty parameter to choose for sample size n. In a simulation study, we find that this has dramatically better performance than cross-validation, is an improvement over a SURE-type method previously proposed for this estimator, and compares favorably to the classic DKDE with its recommended plug-in method. We prove that the maximum error in estimating the risk function is of smaller order than its optimal rate of convergence.

AI recommender systems are sought for decision support by providing suggestions to operators responsible for making final decisions. However, these systems are typically considered black boxes, and are often presented without any context or insight into the underlying algorithm. As a result, recommender systems can lead to miscalibrated user reliance and decreased situation awareness. Recent work has focused on improving the transparency of recommender systems in various ways such as improving the recommender's analysis and visualization of the figures of merit, providing explanations for the recommender's decision, as well as improving user training or calibrating user trust. In this paper, we introduce an alternative transparency technique of structuring the order in which contextual information and the recommender's decision are shown to the human operator. This technique is designed to improve the operator's situation awareness and therefore the shared situation awareness between the operator and the recommender system. This paper presents the results of a two-phase between-subjects study in which participants and a recommender system jointly make a high-stakes decision. We varied the amount of contextual information the participant had, the assessment technique of the figures of merit, and the reliability of the recommender system. We found that providing contextual information upfront improves the team's shared situation awareness by improving the human decision maker's initial and final judgment, as well as their ability to discern the recommender's error boundary. Additionally, this technique accurately calibrated the human operator's trust in the recommender. This work proposes and validates a way to provide model-agnostic transparency into AI systems that can support the human decision maker and lead to improved team performance.

The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.

Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.