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Deep learning inspired by differential equations is a recent research trend and has marked the state of the art performance for many machine learning tasks. Among them, time-series modeling with neural controlled differential equations (NCDEs) is considered as a breakthrough. In many cases, NCDE-based models not only provide better accuracy than recurrent neural networks (RNNs) but also make it possible to process irregular time-series. In this work, we enhance NCDEs by redesigning their core part, i.e., generating a continuous path from a discrete time-series input. NCDEs typically use interpolation algorithms to convert discrete time-series samples to continuous paths. However, we propose to i) generate another latent continuous path using an encoder-decoder architecture, which corresponds to the interpolation process of NCDEs, i.e., our neural network-based interpolation vs. the existing explicit interpolation, and ii) exploit the generative characteristic of the decoder, i.e., extrapolation beyond the time domain of original data if needed. Therefore, our NCDE design can use both the interpolated and the extrapolated information for downstream machine learning tasks. In our experiments with 5 real-world datasets and 12 baselines, our extrapolation and interpolation-based NCDEs outperform existing baselines by non-trivial margins.

Machine learning-based methods have achieved successful applications in machinery fault diagnosis. However, the main limitation that exists for these methods is that they operate as a black box and are generally not interpretable. This paper proposes a novel neural network structure, called temporal logic neural network (TLNN), in which the neurons of the network are logic propositions. More importantly, the network can be described and interpreted as a weighted signal temporal logic. TLNN not only keeps the nice properties of traditional neuron networks but also provides a formal interpretation of itself with formal language. Experiments with real datasets show the proposed neural network can obtain highly accurate fault diagnosis results with good computation efficiency. Additionally, the embedded formal language of the neuron network can provide explanations about the decision process, thus achieve interpretable fault diagnosis.

Intermittent demand forecasting is a ubiquitous and challenging problem in operations and supply chain management. There has been a growing focus on developing forecasting approaches for intermittent demand from academic and practical perspectives in recent years. However, limited attention has been given to forecast combination methods, which have been proved to achieve competitive performance in forecasting fast-moving time series. The current study aims to examine the empirical outcomes of some existing forecast combination methods, and propose a generalized feature-based framework for intermittent demand forecasting. We conduct a simulation study to perform a large-scale comparison of a series of combination methods based on an intermittent demand classification scheme. Further, a real data set is used to investigate the forecasting performance and offer insights with regards the inventory performance of the proposed framework by considering some complementary error measures. The proposed framework leads to a significant improvement in forecast accuracy and offers the potential of flexibility and interpretability in inventory control.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

Structural data well exists in Web applications, such as social networks in social media, citation networks in academic websites, and threads data in online forums. Due to the complex topology, it is difficult to process and make use of the rich information within such data. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great advantages on learning representations for structural data. However, the non-transparency of the deep learning models makes it non-trivial to explain and interpret the predictions made by GNNs. Meanwhile, it is also a big challenge to evaluate the GNN explanations, since in many cases, the ground-truth explanations are unavailable. In this paper, we take insights of Counterfactual and Factual (CF^2) reasoning from causal inference theory, to solve both the learning and evaluation problems in explainable GNNs. For generating explanations, we propose a model-agnostic framework by formulating an optimization problem based on both of the two casual perspectives. This distinguishes CF^2 from previous explainable GNNs that only consider one of them. Another contribution of the work is the evaluation of GNN explanations. For quantitatively evaluating the generated explanations without the requirement of ground-truth, we design metrics based on Counterfactual and Factual reasoning to evaluate the necessity and sufficiency of the explanations. Experiments show that no matter ground-truth explanations are available or not, CF^2 generates better explanations than previous state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets. Moreover, the statistic analysis justifies the correlation between the performance on ground-truth evaluation and our proposed metrics.

This paper proposes a generic method to learn interpretable convolutional filters in a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) for object classification, where each interpretable filter encodes features of a specific object part. Our method does not require additional annotations of object parts or textures for supervision. Instead, we use the same training data as traditional CNNs. Our method automatically assigns each interpretable filter in a high conv-layer with an object part of a certain category during the learning process. Such explicit knowledge representations in conv-layers of CNN help people clarify the logic encoded in the CNN, i.e., answering what patterns the CNN extracts from an input image and uses for prediction. We have tested our method using different benchmark CNNs with various structures to demonstrate the broad applicability of our method. Experiments have shown that our interpretable filters are much more semantically meaningful than traditional filters.

Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.

Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.

This paper reviews recent studies in understanding neural-network representations and learning neural networks with interpretable/disentangled middle-layer representations. Although deep neural networks have exhibited superior performance in various tasks, the interpretability is always the Achilles' heel of deep neural networks. At present, deep neural networks obtain high discrimination power at the cost of low interpretability of their black-box representations. We believe that high model interpretability may help people to break several bottlenecks of deep learning, e.g., learning from very few annotations, learning via human-computer communications at the semantic level, and semantically debugging network representations. We focus on convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and we revisit the visualization of CNN representations, methods of diagnosing representations of pre-trained CNNs, approaches for disentangling pre-trained CNN representations, learning of CNNs with disentangled representations, and middle-to-end learning based on model interpretability. Finally, we discuss prospective trends in explainable artificial intelligence.