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Addressing the challenge of scaling-up epidemiological inference to complex and heterogeneous models, we introduce Poisson Approximate Likelihood (PAL) methods. In contrast to the popular ODE approach to compartmental modelling, in which a large population limit is used to motivate a deterministic model, PALs are derived from approximate filtering equations for finite-population, stochastic compartmental models, and the large population limit drives consistency of maximum PAL estimators. Our theoretical results appear to be the first likelihood-based parameter estimation consistency results which apply to a broad class of partially observed stochastic compartmental models and address the large population limit. PALs are simple to implement, involving only elementary arithmetic operations and no tuning parameters, and fast to evaluate, requiring no simulation from the model and having computational cost independent of population size. Through examples we demonstrate how PALs can be used to: fit an age-structured model of influenza, taking advantage of automatic differentiation in Stan; compare over-dispersion mechanisms in a model of rotavirus by embedding PALs within sequential Monte Carlo; and evaluate the role of unit-specific parameters in a meta-population model of measles.

This paper introduces a new latent variable generative model able to handle high dimensional longitudinal data and relying on variational inference. The time dependency between the observations of an input sequence is modelled using normalizing flows over the associated latent variables. The proposed method can be used to generate either fully synthetic longitudinal sequences or trajectories that are conditioned on several data in a sequence and demonstrates good robustness properties to missing data. We test the model on 6 datasets of different complexity and show that it can achieve better likelihood estimates than some competitors as well as more reliable missing data imputation. A code is made available at \url{//github.com/clementchadebec/variational_inference_for_longitudinal_data}.

This paper proposes three new approaches for additive functional regression models with functional responses. The first one is a reformulation of the linear regression model, and the last two are on the yet scarce case of additive nonlinear functional regression models. Both proposals are based on extensions of similar models for scalar responses. One of our nonlinear models is based on constructing a Spectral Additive Model (the word "Spectral" refers to the representation of the covariates in an $\mcal{L}_2$ basis), which is restricted (by construction) to Hilbertian spaces. The other one extends the kernel estimator, and it can be applied to general metric spaces since it is only based on distances. We include our new approaches as well as real datasets in an R package. The performances of the new proposals are compared with previous ones, which we review theoretically and practically in this paper. The simulation results show the advantages of the nonlinear proposals and the small loss of efficiency when the simulation scenario is truly linear. Finally, the supplementary material provides a visualization tool for checking the linearity of the relationship between a single covariate and the response.

Our goal is to extend the denoising diffusion implicit model (DDIM) to general diffusion models~(DMs) besides isotropic diffusions. Instead of constructing a non-Markov noising process as in the original DDIM, we examine the mechanism of DDIM from a numerical perspective. We discover that the DDIM can be obtained by using some specific approximations of the score when solving the corresponding stochastic differential equation. We present an interpretation of the accelerating effects of DDIM that also explains the advantages of a deterministic sampling scheme over the stochastic one for fast sampling. Building on this insight, we extend DDIM to general DMs, coined generalized DDIM (gDDIM), with a small but delicate modification in parameterizing the score network. We validate gDDIM in two non-isotropic DMs: Blurring diffusion model (BDM) and Critically-damped Langevin diffusion model (CLD). We observe more than 20 times acceleration in BDM. In the CLD, a diffusion model by augmenting the diffusion process with velocity, our algorithm achieves an FID score of 2.26, on CIFAR10, with only 50 number of score function evaluations~(NFEs) and an FID score of 2.86 with only 27 NFEs. Code is available at //github.com/qsh-zh/gDDIM

Parametric optimization is an important product design technique, especially in the context of the modern parametric feature-based CAD paradigm. Realizing its full potential, however, requires a closed loop between CAD and CAE (i.e., CAD/CAE integration) with automatic design modifications and simulation updates. Conventionally the approach of model conversion is often employed to form the loop, but this way of working is hard to automate and requires manual inputs. As a result, the overall optimization process is too laborious to be acceptable. To address this issue, a new method for parametric optimization is introduced in this paper, based on a unified model representation scheme called eXtended Voxels (XVoxels). This scheme hybridizes feature models and voxel models into a new concept of semantic voxels, where the voxel part is responsible for FEM solving, and the semantic part is responsible for high-level information to capture both design and simulation intents. As such, it can establish a direct mapping between design models and analysis models, which in turn enables automatic updates on simulation results for design modifications, and vice versa -- effectively a closed loop between CAD and CAE. In addition, robust and efficient geometric algorithms for manipulating XVoxel models and efficient numerical methods (based on the recent finite cell method) for simulating XVoxel models are provided. The presented method has been validated by a series of case studies of increasing complexity to demonstrate its effectiveness. In particular, a computational efficiency improvement of up to 55.8 times the existing FCM method has been seen.

Diffusion models have shown incredible capabilities as generative models; indeed, they power the current state-of-the-art models on text-conditioned image generation such as Imagen and DALL-E 2. In this work we review, demystify, and unify the understanding of diffusion models across both variational and score-based perspectives. We first derive Variational Diffusion Models (VDM) as a special case of a Markovian Hierarchical Variational Autoencoder, where three key assumptions enable tractable computation and scalable optimization of the ELBO. We then prove that optimizing a VDM boils down to learning a neural network to predict one of three potential objectives: the original source input from any arbitrary noisification of it, the original source noise from any arbitrarily noisified input, or the score function of a noisified input at any arbitrary noise level. We then dive deeper into what it means to learn the score function, and connect the variational perspective of a diffusion model explicitly with the Score-based Generative Modeling perspective through Tweedie's Formula. Lastly, we cover how to learn a conditional distribution using diffusion models via guidance.

Learning on big data brings success for artificial intelligence (AI), but the annotation and training costs are expensive. In future, learning on small data is one of the ultimate purposes of AI, which requires machines to recognize objectives and scenarios relying on small data as humans. A series of machine learning models is going on this way such as active learning, few-shot learning, deep clustering. However, there are few theoretical guarantees for their generalization performance. Moreover, most of their settings are passive, that is, the label distribution is explicitly controlled by one specified sampling scenario. This survey follows the agnostic active sampling under a PAC (Probably Approximately Correct) framework to analyze the generalization error and label complexity of learning on small data using a supervised and unsupervised fashion. With these theoretical analyses, we categorize the small data learning models from two geometric perspectives: the Euclidean and non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) mean representation, where their optimization solutions are also presented and discussed. Later, some potential learning scenarios that may benefit from small data learning are then summarized, and their potential learning scenarios are also analyzed. Finally, some challenging applications such as computer vision, natural language processing that may benefit from learning on small data are also surveyed.

Structural data well exists in Web applications, such as social networks in social media, citation networks in academic websites, and threads data in online forums. Due to the complex topology, it is difficult to process and make use of the rich information within such data. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great advantages on learning representations for structural data. However, the non-transparency of the deep learning models makes it non-trivial to explain and interpret the predictions made by GNNs. Meanwhile, it is also a big challenge to evaluate the GNN explanations, since in many cases, the ground-truth explanations are unavailable. In this paper, we take insights of Counterfactual and Factual (CF^2) reasoning from causal inference theory, to solve both the learning and evaluation problems in explainable GNNs. For generating explanations, we propose a model-agnostic framework by formulating an optimization problem based on both of the two casual perspectives. This distinguishes CF^2 from previous explainable GNNs that only consider one of them. Another contribution of the work is the evaluation of GNN explanations. For quantitatively evaluating the generated explanations without the requirement of ground-truth, we design metrics based on Counterfactual and Factual reasoning to evaluate the necessity and sufficiency of the explanations. Experiments show that no matter ground-truth explanations are available or not, CF^2 generates better explanations than previous state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets. Moreover, the statistic analysis justifies the correlation between the performance on ground-truth evaluation and our proposed metrics.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

The Q-learning algorithm is known to be affected by the maximization bias, i.e. the systematic overestimation of action values, an important issue that has recently received renewed attention. Double Q-learning has been proposed as an efficient algorithm to mitigate this bias. However, this comes at the price of an underestimation of action values, in addition to increased memory requirements and a slower convergence. In this paper, we introduce a new way to address the maximization bias in the form of a "self-correcting algorithm" for approximating the maximum of an expected value. Our method balances the overestimation of the single estimator used in conventional Q-learning and the underestimation of the double estimator used in Double Q-learning. Applying this strategy to Q-learning results in Self-correcting Q-learning. We show theoretically that this new algorithm enjoys the same convergence guarantees as Q-learning while being more accurate. Empirically, it performs better than Double Q-learning in domains with rewards of high variance, and it even attains faster convergence than Q-learning in domains with rewards of zero or low variance. These advantages transfer to a Deep Q Network implementation that we call Self-correcting DQN and which outperforms regular DQN and Double DQN on several tasks in the Atari 2600 domain.