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Predicting the future states of surrounding traffic participants and planning a safe, smooth, and socially compliant trajectory accordingly is crucial for autonomous vehicles. There are two major issues with the current autonomous driving system: the prediction module is often decoupled from the planning module and the cost function for planning is hard to specify and tune. To tackle these issues, we propose an end-to-end differentiable framework that integrates prediction and planning modules and is able to learn the cost function from data. Specifically, we employ a differentiable nonlinear optimizer as the motion planner, which takes the predicted trajectories of surrounding agents given by the neural network as input and optimizes the trajectory for the autonomous vehicle, thus enabling all operations in the framework to be differentiable including the cost function weights. The proposed framework is trained on a large-scale real-world driving dataset to imitate human driving trajectories in the entire driving scene and validated in both open-loop and closed-loop manners. The open-loop testing results reveal that the proposed method outperforms the baseline methods across a variety of metrics and delivers planning-centric prediction results, allowing the planning module to output close-to-human trajectories. In closed-loop testing, the proposed method shows the ability to handle complex urban driving scenarios and robustness against the distributional shift that imitation learning methods suffer from. Importantly, we find that joint training of planning and prediction modules achieves better performance than planning with a separate trained prediction module in both open-loop and closed-loop tests. Moreover, the ablation study indicates that the learnable components in the framework are essential to ensure planning stability and performance.

The key to video inpainting is to use correlation information from as many reference frames as possible. Existing flow-based propagation methods split the video synthesis process into multiple steps: flow completion -> pixel propagation -> synthesis. However, there is a significant drawback that the errors in each step continue to accumulate and amplify in the next step. To this end, we propose an Error Compensation Framework for Flow-guided Video Inpainting (ECFVI), which takes advantage of the flow-based method and offsets its weaknesses. We address the weakness with the newly designed flow completion module and the error compensation network that exploits the error guidance map. Our approach greatly improves the temporal consistency and the visual quality of the completed videos. Experimental results show the superior performance of our proposed method with the speed up of x6, compared to the state-of-the-art methods. In addition, we present a new benchmark dataset for evaluation by supplementing the weaknesses of existing test datasets.

Predictive coding (PC) is an influential theory in computational neuroscience, which argues that the cortex forms unsupervised world models by implementing a hierarchical process of prediction error minimization. PC networks (PCNs) are trained in two phases. First, neural activities are updated to optimize the network's response to external stimuli. Second, synaptic weights are updated to consolidate this change in activity -- an algorithm called \emph{prospective configuration}. While previous work has shown how in various limits, PCNs can be found to approximate backpropagation (BP), recent work has demonstrated that PCNs operating in this standard regime, which does not approximate BP, nevertheless obtain competitive training and generalization performance to BP-trained networks while outperforming them on tasks such as online, few-shot, and continual learning, where brains are known to excel. Despite this promising empirical performance, little is understood theoretically about the properties and dynamics of PCNs in this regime. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the properties of PCNs trained with prospective configuration. We first derive analytical results concerning the inference equilibrium for PCNs and a previously unknown close connection relationship to target propagation (TP). Secondly, we provide a theoretical analysis of learning in PCNs as a variant of generalized expectation-maximization and use that to prove the convergence of PCNs to critical points of the BP loss function, thus showing that deep PCNs can, in theory, achieve the same generalization performance as BP, while maintaining their unique advantages.

Heterogeneity is a dominant factor in the behaviour of many biological processes. Despite this, it is common for mathematical and statistical analyses to ignore biological heterogeneity as a source of variability in experimental data. Therefore, methods for exploring the identifiability of models that explicitly incorporate heterogeneity through variability in model parameters are relatively underdeveloped. We develop a new likelihood-based framework, based on moment matching, for inference and identifiability analysis of differential equation models that capture biological heterogeneity through parameters that vary according to probability distributions. As our novel method is based on an approximate likelihood function, it is highly flexible; we demonstrate identifiability analysis using both a frequentist approach based on profile likelihood, and a Bayesian approach based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo. Through three case studies, we demonstrate our method by providing a didactic guide to inference and identifiability analysis of hyperparameters that relate to the statistical moments of model parameters from independent observed data. Our approach has a computational cost comparable to analysis of models that neglect heterogeneity, a significant improvement over many existing alternatives. We demonstrate how analysis of random parameter models can aid better understanding of the sources of heterogeneity from biological data.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, such as quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a $ProbSparse$ Self-attention mechanism, which achieves $O(L \log L)$ in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting, focusing on Transformer models for NLP tasks that are limited by compute: self-supervised pretraining and high-resource machine translation. We first show that even though smaller Transformer models execute faster per iteration, wider and deeper models converge in significantly fewer steps. Moreover, this acceleration in convergence typically outpaces the additional computational overhead of using larger models. Therefore, the most compute-efficient training strategy is to counterintuitively train extremely large models but stop after a small number of iterations. This leads to an apparent trade-off between the training efficiency of large Transformer models and the inference efficiency of small Transformer models. However, we show that large models are more robust to compression techniques such as quantization and pruning than small models. Consequently, one can get the best of both worlds: heavily compressed, large models achieve higher accuracy than lightly compressed, small models.