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To date, most methods for simulating conditioned diffusions are limited to the Euclidean setting. The conditioned process can be constructed using a change of measure known as Doob's $h$-transform. The specific type of conditioning depends on a function $h$ which is typically unknown in closed form. To resolve this, we extend the notion of guided processes to a manifold $M$, where one replaces $h$ by a function based on the heat kernel on $M$. We consider the case of a Brownian motion with drift, constructed using the frame bundle of $M$, conditioned to hit a point $x_T$ at time $T$. We prove equivalence of the laws of the conditioned process and the guided process with a tractable Radon-Nikodym derivative. Subsequently, we show how one can obtain guided processes on any manifold $N$ that is diffeomorphic to $M$ without assuming knowledge of the heat kernel on $N$. We illustrate our results with numerical simulations and an example of parameter estimation where a diffusion process on the torus is observed discretely in time.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) are a widely used framework for sequential decision-making under parameter uncertainty. RMDPs have been extensively studied when the objective is to maximize the discounted return, but little is known for average optimality (optimizing the long-run average of the rewards obtained over time) and Blackwell optimality (remaining discount optimal for all discount factors sufficiently close to 1). In this paper, we prove several foundational results for RMDPs beyond the discounted return. We show that average optimal policies can be chosen stationary and deterministic for sa-rectangular RMDPs but, perhaps surprisingly, that history-dependent (Markovian) policies strictly outperform stationary policies for average optimality in s-rectangular RMDPs. We also study Blackwell optimality for sa-rectangular RMDPs, where we show that {\em approximate} Blackwell optimal policies always exist, although Blackwell optimal policies may not exist. We also provide a sufficient condition for their existence, which encompasses virtually any examples from the literature. We then discuss the connection between average and Blackwell optimality, and we describe several algorithms to compute the optimal average return. Interestingly, our approach leverages the connections between RMDPs and stochastic games.

One of the main challenges for interpreting black-box models is the ability to uniquely decompose square-integrable functions of non-independent random inputs into a sum of functions of every possible subset of variables. However, dealing with dependencies among inputs can be complicated. We propose a novel framework to study this problem, linking three domains of mathematics: probability theory, functional analysis, and combinatorics. We show that, under two reasonable assumptions on the inputs (non-perfect functional dependence and non-degenerate stochastic dependence), it is always possible to decompose such a function uniquely. This generalizes the well-known Hoeffding decomposition. The elements of this decomposition can be expressed using oblique projections and allow for novel interpretability indices for evaluation and variance decomposition purposes. The properties of these novel indices are studied and discussed. This generalization offers a path towards a more precise uncertainty quantification, which can benefit sensitivity analysis and interpretability studies whenever the inputs are dependent. This decomposition is illustrated analytically, and the challenges for adopting these results in practice are discussed.

We present a new methodology for decomposing flows with multiple transports that further extends the shifted proper orthogonal decomposition (sPOD). The sPOD tries to approximate transport-dominated flows by a sum of co-moving data fields. The proposed methods stem from sPOD but optimize the co-moving fields directly and penalize their nuclear norm to promote low rank of the individual data in the decomposition. Furthermore, we add a robustness term to the decomposition that can deal with interpolation error and data noises. Leveraging tools from convex optimization, we derive three proximal algorithms to solve the decomposition problem. We report a numerical comparison with existing methods against synthetic data benchmarks and then show the separation ability of our methods on 1D and 2D incompressible and reactive flows. The resulting methodology is the basis of a new analysis paradigm that results in the same interpretability as the POD for the individual co-moving fields.

We propose some new results on the comparison of the minimum or maximum order statistic from a random number of non-identical random variables. Under the non-identical set-up, with certain conditions, we prove that random minimum (maximum) of one system dominates the other in hazard rate (reversed hazard rate) order. Further, we prove variation diminishing property (Karlin [8]) for all possible restrictions to derive the new results.

We construct Bayesian and frequentist finite-sample goodness-of-fit tests for three different variants of the stochastic blockmodel for network data. Since all of the stochastic blockmodel variants are log-linear in form when block assignments are known, the tests for the \emph{latent} block model versions combine a block membership estimator with the algebraic statistics machinery for testing goodness-of-fit in log-linear models. We describe Markov bases and marginal polytopes of the variants of the stochastic blockmodel, and discuss how both facilitate the development of goodness-of-fit tests and understanding of model behavior. The general testing methodology developed here extends to any finite mixture of log-linear models on discrete data, and as such is the first application of the algebraic statistics machinery for latent-variable models.

Arguably, geodesics are the most important geometric objects on a differentiable manifold. They describe candidates for shortest paths and are guaranteed to be unique shortest paths when the starting velocity stays within the so-called injectivity radius of the manifold. In this work, we investigate the injectivity radius of the Stiefel manifold under the canonical metric. The Stiefel manifold $St(n,p)$ is the set of rectangular matrices of dimension $n$-by-$p$ with orthogonal columns, sometimes also called the space of orthogonal $p$-frames in $\mathbb{R}^n$. Using a standard curvature argument, Rentmeesters has shown in 2013 that the injectivity radius of the Stiefel manifold is bounded by $\sqrt{\frac{4}{5}}\pi$. It is an open question, whether this bound is sharp. With the definition of the injectivity radius via cut points of geodesics, we gain access to the information of the injectivity radius by investigating geodesics. More precisely, we consider the behavior of special variations of geodesics, called Jacobi fields. By doing so, we are able to present an explicit example of a cut point. In addition, since the theoretical analysis of geodesics for cut points and especially conjugate points as a type of cut points is difficult, we investigate the question of the sharpness of the bound by means of numerical experiments.

We discuss the inhomogeneous spiked Wigner model, a theoretical framework recently introduced to study structured noise in various learning scenarios, through the prism of random matrix theory, with a specific focus on its spectral properties. Our primary objective is to find an optimal spectral method and to extend the celebrated \cite{BBP} (BBP) phase transition criterion -- well-known in the homogeneous case -- to our inhomogeneous, block-structured, Wigner model. We provide a thorough rigorous analysis of a transformed matrix and show that the transition for the appearance of 1) an outlier outside the bulk of the limiting spectral distribution and 2) a positive overlap between the associated eigenvector and the signal, occurs precisely at the optimal threshold, making the proposed spectral method optimal within the class of iterative methods for the inhomogeneous Wigner problem.

Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.