Recursive max-linear vectors provide models for the causal dependence between large values of observed random variables as they are supported on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). But the standard assumption that all nodes of such a DAG are observed is often unrealistic. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions that allow for a partially observed vector from a regularly varying model to be represented as a recursive max-linear (sub-)model. Our method relies on regular variation and the minimal representation of a recursive max-linear vector. Here the max-weighted paths of a DAG play an essential role. Results are based on a scaling technique and causal dependence relations between pairs of nodes. In certain cases our method can also detect the presence of hidden confounders. Under a two-step thresholding procedure, we show consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. Finally, we study our method by simulation, and apply it to nutrition intake data.
A standard approach to solve ordinary differential equations, when they describe dynamical systems, is to adopt a Runge-Kutta or related scheme. Such schemes, however, are not applicable to the large class of equations which do not constitute dynamical systems. In several physical systems, we encounter integro-differential equations with memory terms where the time derivative of a state variable at a given time depends on all past states of the system. Secondly, there are equations whose solutions do not have well-defined Taylor series expansion. The Maxey-Riley-Gatignol equation, which describes the dynamics of an inertial particle in nonuniform and unsteady flow, displays both challenges. We use it as a test bed to address the questions we raise, but our method may be applied to all equations of this class. We show that the Maxey-Riley-Gatignol equation can be embedded into an extended Markovian system which is constructed by introducing a new dynamical co-evolving state variable that encodes memory of past states. We develop a Runge-Kutta algorithm for the resultant Markovian system. The form of the kernels involved in deriving the Runge-Kutta scheme necessitates the use of an expansion in powers of $t^{1/2}$. Our approach naturally inherits the benefits of standard time-integrators, namely a constant memory storage cost, a linear growth of operational effort with simulation time, and the ability to restart a simulation with the final state as the new initial condition.
Computational models are an essential tool for understanding the origin and functions of the topographic organisation of the primate visual system. Yet, vision is most commonly modelled by convolutional neural networks that ignore topography by learning identical features across space. Here, we overcome this limitation by developing All-Topographic Neural Networks (All-TNNs). Trained on visual input, several features of primate topography emerge in All-TNNs: smooth orientation maps and cortical magnification in their first layer, and category-selective areas in their final layer. In addition, we introduce a novel dataset of human spatial biases in object recognition, which enables us to directly link models to behaviour. We demonstrate that All-TNNs significantly better align with human behaviour than previous state-of-the-art convolutional models due to their topographic nature. All-TNNs thereby mark an important step forward in understanding the spatial organisation of the visual brain and how it mediates visual behaviour.
The forecasting and computation of the stability of chaotic systems from partial observations are tasks for which traditional equation-based methods may not be suitable. In this computational paper, we propose data-driven methods to (i) infer the dynamics of unobserved (hidden) chaotic variables (full-state reconstruction); (ii) time forecast the evolution of the full state; and (iii) infer the stability properties of the full state. The tasks are performed with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, which are trained with observations (data) limited to only part of the state: (i) the low-to-high resolution LSTM (LH-LSTM), which takes partial observations as training input, and requires access to the full system state when computing the loss; and (ii) the physics-informed LSTM (PI-LSTM), which is designed to combine partial observations with the integral formulation of the dynamical system's evolution equations. First, we derive the Jacobian of the LSTMs. Second, we analyse a chaotic partial differential equation, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS), and the Lorenz-96 system. We show that the proposed networks can forecast the hidden variables, both time-accurately and statistically. The Lyapunov exponents and covariant Lyapunov vectors, which characterize the stability of the chaotic attractors, are correctly inferred from partial observations. Third, the PI-LSTM outperforms the LH-LSTM by successfully reconstructing the hidden chaotic dynamics when the input dimension is smaller or similar to the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. This work opens new opportunities for reconstructing the full state, inferring hidden variables, and computing the stability of chaotic systems from partial data.
Single-parameter summaries of variable effects are desirable for ease of interpretation, but linear models, which would deliver these, may fit poorly to the data. A modern approach is to estimate the average partial effect -- the average slope of the regression function with respect to the predictor of interest -- using a doubly robust semiparametric procedure. Most existing work has focused on specific forms of nuisance function estimators. We extend the scope to arbitrary plug-in nuisance function estimation, allowing for the use of modern machine learning methods which in particular may deliver non-differentiable regression function estimates. Our procedure involves resmoothing a user-chosen first-stage regression estimator to produce a differentiable version, and modelling the conditional distribution of the predictors through a location-scale model. We show that our proposals lead to a semiparametric efficient estimator under relatively weak assumptions. Our theory makes use of a new result on the sub-Gaussianity of Lipschitz score functions that may be of independent interest. We demonstrate the attractive numerical performance of our approach in a variety of settings including ones with misspecification.
The DPG method with optimal test functions for solving linear quadratic optimal control problems with control constraints is studied. We prove existence of a unique optimal solution of the nonlinear discrete problem and characterize it through first order optimality conditions. Furthermore, we systematically develop a priori as well as a posteriori error estimates. Our proposed method can be applied to a wide range of constrained optimal control problems subject to, e.g., scalar second-order PDEs and the Stokes equations. Numerical experiments that illustrate our theoretical findings are presented.
This paper develops power series expansions of a general class of moment functions, including transition densities and option prices, of continuous-time Markov processes, including jump--diffusions. The proposed expansions extend the ones in Kristensen and Mele (2011) to cover general Markov processes. We demonstrate that the class of expansions nests the transition density and option price expansions developed in Yang, Chen, and Wan (2019) and Wan and Yang (2021) as special cases, thereby connecting seemingly different ideas in a unified framework. We show how the general expansion can be implemented for fully general jump--diffusion models. We provide a new theory for the validity of the expansions which shows that series expansions are not guaranteed to converge as more terms are added in general. Thus, these methods should be used with caution. At the same time, the numerical studies in this paper demonstrate good performance of the proposed implementation in practice when a small number of terms are included.
Time-dependent basis reduced order models (TDB ROMs) have successfully been used for approximating the solution to nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs). For many practical problems of interest, discretizing these PDEs results in massive matrix differential equations (MDEs) that are too expensive to solve using conventional methods. While TDB ROMs have the potential to significantly reduce this computational burden, they still suffer from the following challenges: (i) inefficient for general nonlinearities, (ii) intrusive implementation, (iii) ill-conditioned in the presence of small singular values, and (iv) error accumulation due to fixed rank. To this end, we present a scalable method based on oblique projections for solving TDB ROMs that is computationally efficient, minimally intrusive, robust in the presence of small singular values, rank-adaptive, and highly parallelizable. These favorable properties are achieved via low-rank approximation of the time discrete MDE. Using the discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM), a low-rank decomposition is computed at each iteration of the time stepping scheme, enabling a near-optimal approximation at a fraction of the cost. We coin the new approach TDB-CUR since it is equivalent to a CUR decomposition based on sparse row and column samples of the MDE. We also propose a rank-adaptive procedure to control the error on-the-fly. Numerical results demonstrate the accuracy, efficiency, and robustness of the new method for a diverse set of problems.
A population-averaged additive subdistribution hazards model is proposed to assess the marginal effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence function and to analyze correlated failure time data subject to competing risks. This approach extends the population-averaged additive hazards model by accommodating potentially dependent censoring due to competing events other than the event of interest. Assuming an independent working correlation structure, an estimating equations approach is outlined to estimate the regression coefficients and a new sandwich variance estimator is proposed. The proposed sandwich variance estimator accounts for both the correlations between failure times and between the censoring times, and is robust to misspecification of the unknown dependency structure within each cluster. We further develop goodness-of-fit tests to assess the adequacy of the additive structure of the subdistribution hazards for the overall model and each covariate. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed methods in finite samples. We illustrate our methods using data from the STrategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop confidence in Elders (STRIDE) trial.
We consider the fundamental task of optimizing a real-valued function defined in a potentially high-dimensional Euclidean space, such as the loss function in many machine-learning tasks or the logarithm of the probability distribution in statistical inference. We use the warped Riemannian geometry notions to redefine the optimisation problem of a function on Euclidean space to a Riemannian manifold with a warped metric, and then find the function's optimum along this manifold. The warped metric chosen for the search domain induces a computational friendly metric-tensor for which optimal search directions associate with geodesic curves on the manifold becomes easier to compute. Performing optimization along geodesics is known to be generally infeasible, yet we show that in this specific manifold we can analytically derive Taylor approximations up to third-order. In general these approximations to the geodesic curve will not lie on the manifold, however we construct suitable retraction maps to pull them back onto the manifold. Therefore, we can efficiently optimize along the approximate geodesic curves. We cover the related theory, describe a practical optimization algorithm and empirically evaluate it on a collection of challenging optimisation benchmarks. Our proposed algorithm, using third-order approximation of geodesics, outperforms standard Euclidean gradient-based counterparts in term of number of iterations until convergence and an alternative method for Hessian-based optimisation routines.
Uniform error estimates of a bi-fidelity method for a kinetic-fluid coupled model with random initial inputs in the fine particle regime are proved in this paper. Such a model is a system coupling the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations to the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equations for a mixture of the flows with distinct particle sizes. The main analytic tool is the hypocoercivity analysis for the multi-phase Navier-Stokes-Vlasov-Fokker-Planck system with uncertainties, considering solutions in a perturbative setting near the global equilibrium. This allows us to obtain the error estimates in both kinetic and hydrodynamic regimes.