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This paper presents a framework of imitating the principal investor's behavior for optimal pricing and hedging options. We construct a non-deterministic Markov decision process for modeling stock price change driven by the principal investor's decision making. However, low signal-to-noise ratio and instability that are inherent in equity markets pose challenges to determine the state transition (stock price change) after executing an action (the principal investor's decision) as well as decide an action based on current state (spot price). In order to conquer these challenges, we resort to a Bayesian deep neural network for computing the predictive distribution of the state transition led by an action. Additionally, instead of exploring a state-action relationship to formulate a policy, we seek for an episode based visible-hidden state-action relationship to probabilistically imitate the principal investor's successive decision making. Unlike conventional option pricing that employs analytical stochastic processes or utilizes time series analysis to model and sample underlying stock price movements, our algorithm simulates stock price paths by imitating the principal investor's behavior which requires no preset probability distribution and fewer predetermined parameters. Eventually the optimal option price is learned by reinforcement learning to maximize the cumulative risk-adjusted return of a dynamically hedged portfolio over simulated price paths.

We develop a methodology to construct low-dimensional predictive models from data sets representing essentially nonlinear (or non-linearizable) dynamical systems with a hyperbolic linear part that are subject to external forcing with finitely many frequencies. Our data-driven, sparse, nonlinear models are obtained as extended normal forms of the reduced dynamics on low-dimensional, attracting spectral submanifolds (SSMs) of the dynamical system. We illustrate the power of data-driven SSM reduction on high-dimensional numerical data sets and experimental measurements involving beam oscillations, vortex shedding and sloshing in a water tank. We find that SSM reduction trained on unforced data also predicts nonlinear response accurately under additional external forcing.

Deep neural networks have revolutionized many machine learning tasks in power systems, ranging from pattern recognition to signal processing. The data in these tasks is typically represented in Euclidean domains. Nevertheless, there is an increasing number of applications in power systems, where data are collected from non-Euclidean domains and represented as the graph-structured data with high dimensional features and interdependency among nodes. The complexity of graph-structured data has brought significant challenges to the existing deep neural networks defined in Euclidean domains. Recently, many studies on extending deep neural networks for graph-structured data in power systems have emerged. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in power systems is proposed. Specifically, several classical paradigms of GNNs structures (e.g., graph convolutional networks, graph recurrent neural networks, graph attention networks, graph generative networks, spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks, and hybrid forms of GNNs) are summarized, and key applications in power systems such as fault diagnosis, power prediction, power flow calculation, and data generation are reviewed in detail. Furthermore, main issues and some research trends about the applications of GNNs in power systems are discussed.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

Predictions obtained by, e.g., artificial neural networks have a high accuracy but humans often perceive the models as black boxes. Insights about the decision making are mostly opaque for humans. Particularly understanding the decision making in highly sensitive areas such as healthcare or fifinance, is of paramount importance. The decision-making behind the black boxes requires it to be more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. This survey paper provides essential definitions, an overview of the different principles and methodologies of explainable Supervised Machine Learning (SML). We conduct a state-of-the-art survey that reviews past and recent explainable SML approaches and classifies them according to the introduced definitions. Finally, we illustrate principles by means of an explanatory case study and discuss important future directions.

Graph deep learning has recently emerged as a powerful ML concept allowing to generalize successful deep neural architectures to non-Euclidean structured data. Such methods have shown promising results on a broad spectrum of applications ranging from social science, biomedicine, and particle physics to computer vision, graphics, and chemistry. One of the limitations of the majority of the current graph neural network architectures is that they are often restricted to the transductive setting and rely on the assumption that the underlying graph is known and fixed. In many settings, such as those arising in medical and healthcare applications, this assumption is not necessarily true since the graph may be noisy, partially- or even completely unknown, and one is thus interested in inferring it from the data. This is especially important in inductive settings when dealing with nodes not present in the graph at training time. Furthermore, sometimes such a graph itself may convey insights that are even more important than the downstream task. In this paper, we introduce Differentiable Graph Module (DGM), a learnable function predicting the edge probability in the graph relevant for the task, that can be combined with convolutional graph neural network layers and trained in an end-to-end fashion. We provide an extensive evaluation of applications from the domains of healthcare (disease prediction), brain imaging (gender and age prediction), computer graphics (3D point cloud segmentation), and computer vision (zero-shot learning). We show that our model provides a significant improvement over baselines both in transductive and inductive settings and achieves state-of-the-art results.

We present a new approach for pretraining a bi-directional transformer model that provides significant performance gains across a variety of language understanding problems. Our model solves a cloze-style word reconstruction task, where each word is ablated and must be predicted given the rest of the text. Experiments demonstrate large performance gains on GLUE and new state of the art results on NER as well as constituency parsing benchmarks, consistent with the concurrently introduced BERT model. We also present a detailed analysis of a number of factors that contribute to effective pretraining, including data domain and size, model capacity, and variations on the cloze objective.

Graphs, which describe pairwise relations between objects, are essential representations of many real-world data such as social networks. In recent years, graph neural networks, which extend the neural network models to graph data, have attracted increasing attention. Graph neural networks have been applied to advance many different graph related tasks such as reasoning dynamics of the physical system, graph classification, and node classification. Most of the existing graph neural network models have been designed for static graphs, while many real-world graphs are inherently dynamic. For example, social networks are naturally evolving as new users joining and new relations being created. Current graph neural network models cannot utilize the dynamic information in dynamic graphs. However, the dynamic information has been proven to enhance the performance of many graph analytical tasks such as community detection and link prediction. Hence, it is necessary to design dedicated graph neural networks for dynamic graphs. In this paper, we propose DGNN, a new {\bf D}ynamic {\bf G}raph {\bf N}eural {\bf N}etwork model, which can model the dynamic information as the graph evolving. In particular, the proposed framework can keep updating node information by capturing the sequential information of edges, the time intervals between edges and information propagation coherently. Experimental results on various dynamic graphs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Inferring other agents' mental states such as their knowledge, beliefs and intentions is thought to be essential for effective interactions with other agents. Recently, multiagent systems trained via deep reinforcement learning have been shown to succeed in solving different tasks, but it remains unclear how each agent modeled or represented other agents in their environment. In this work we test whether deep reinforcement learning agents explicitly represent other agents' intentions (their specific aims or goals) during a task in which the agents had to coordinate the covering of different spots in a 2D environment. In particular, we tracked over time the performance of a linear decoder trained to predict the final goal of all agents from the hidden state of each agent's neural network controller. We observed that the hidden layers of agents represented explicit information about other agents' goals, i.e. the target landmark they ended up covering. We also performed a series of experiments, in which some agents were replaced by others with fixed goals, to test the level of generalization of the trained agents. We noticed that during the training phase the agents developed a differential preference for each goal, which hindered generalization. To alleviate the above problem, we propose simple changes to the MADDPG training algorithm which leads to better generalization against unseen agents. We believe that training protocols promoting more active intention reading mechanisms, e.g. by preventing simple symmetry-breaking solutions, is a promising direction towards achieving a more robust generalization in different cooperative and competitive tasks.

Recent years have witnessed significant progresses in deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). Empowered with large scale neural networks, carefully designed architectures, novel training algorithms and massively parallel computing devices, researchers are able to attack many challenging RL problems. However, in machine learning, more training power comes with a potential risk of more overfitting. As deep RL techniques are being applied to critical problems such as healthcare and finance, it is important to understand the generalization behaviors of the trained agents. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of standard RL agents and find that they could overfit in various ways. Moreover, overfitting could happen "robustly": commonly used techniques in RL that add stochasticity do not necessarily prevent or detect overfitting. In particular, the same agents and learning algorithms could have drastically different test performance, even when all of them achieve optimal rewards during training. The observations call for more principled and careful evaluation protocols in RL. We conclude with a general discussion on overfitting in RL and a study of the generalization behaviors from the perspective of inductive bias.