We study the edges dissolution approximation (EDA) of Carnegie et al. We begin by repeating an observation from Carnegie et al., namely that in the dyad-independent case, the exact result is tractable. We then observe that taking the sparse limit of the exact result leads to a different approximation than that in Carnegie et al. We prove that this new approximation is better than the old approximation for sparse dyad-independent models, and we show via simulation that the new approximation tends to perform better than the old approximation for sparse models with sufficiently weak dyad-dependence. We then turn to general dyad-dependent models, proving that both the old and new approximations are asymptotically exact as the time step size goes to zero, for arbitrary dyad-dependent terms and some dyad-dependent constraints. In demonstrating this result, we identify a Markov chain, defined for any sufficiently small time step, whose cross-sectional and durational behavior is exactly that we desire of the EDA. This Markov chain can be simulated, and we do so for a dyad-dependent model, showing that it eliminates the biases present with either of the dyad-independent-derived approximations.
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Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent uncertainty, such as weather forecasting, medical prognosis, or collision avoidance in autonomous vehicles. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the important difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. The goal of this work is to investigate probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on classification problems where the probabilities are related to model uncertainty. In the case of problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.
We study ROUND-UFP and ROUND-SAP, two generalizations of the classical BIN PACKING problem that correspond to the unsplittable flow problem on a path (UFP) and the storage allocation problem (SAP), respectively. We are given a path with capacities on its edges and a set of tasks where for each task we are given a demand and a subpath. In ROUND-UFP, the goal is to find a packing of all tasks into a minimum number of copies (rounds) of the given path such that for each copy, the total demand of tasks on any edge does not exceed the capacity of the respective edge. In ROUND-SAP, the tasks are considered to be rectangles and the goal is to find a non-overlapping packing of these rectangles into a minimum number of rounds such that all rectangles lie completely below the capacity profile of the edges. We show that in contrast to BIN PACKING, both the problems do not admit an asymptotic polynomial-time approximation scheme (APTAS), even when all edge capacities are equal. However, for this setting, we obtain asymptotic $(2+\varepsilon)$-approximations for both problems. For the general case, we obtain an $O(\log\log n)$-approximation algorithm and an $O(\log\log\frac{1}{\delta})$-approximation under $(1+\delta)$-resource augmentation for both problems. For the intermediate setting of the no bottleneck assumption (i.e., the maximum task demand is at most the minimum edge capacity), we obtain absolute $12$- and asymptotic $(16+\varepsilon)$-approximation algorithms for ROUND-UFP and ROUND-SAP, respectively.
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated analytically and found to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and normally distributed. Also, the finite sample behaviour of the estimators are studied through a simulations theory. The proposed estimators were found to yield low bias and MSE. In addition, the proposed estimators are illustrated through the estimation of the tail index of the underlying distribution of claims from the insurance industry.
Missing data is frequently encountered in practice. Propensity score estimation is a popular tool for handling such missingness. The propensity score is often developed using a model for the response probability, which can be subject to model misspecification. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach of estimating the inverse of the propensity scores using the density ratio function. The smoothed density ratio function is obtained by the solution to the information projection onto the space satisfying the moment conditions on the balancing scores. By including the covariates for the outcome regression models only into the density ratio model, we can achieve efficient propensity score estimation. Penalized regression is used to identify important covariates. We further extend the proposed approach to the multivariate missing case. Some limited simulation studies are presented to compare with the existing methods.
While many works exploiting an existing Lie group structure have been proposed for state estimation, in particular the Invariant Extended Kalman Filter (IEKF), few papers address the construction of a group structure that allows casting a given system into the framework of invariant filtering. In this paper we introduce a large class of systems encompassing most problems involving a navigating vehicle encountered in practice. For those systems we introduce a novel methodology that systematically provides a group structure for the state space, including vectors of the body frame such as biases. We use it to derive observers having properties akin to those of linear observers or filters. The proposed unifying and versatile framework encompasses all systems where IEKF has proved successful, improves state-of-the art "imperfect" IEKF for inertial navigation with sensor biases, and allows addressing novel examples, like GNSS antenna lever arm estimation.
We study query and computationally efficient planning algorithms with linear function approximation and a simulator. We assume that the agent only has local access to the simulator, meaning that the agent can only query the simulator at states that have been visited before. This setting is more practical than many prior works on reinforcement learning with a generative model. We propose two algorithms, named confident Monte Carlo least square policy iteration (Confident MC-LSPI) and confident Monte Carlo Politex (Confident MC-Politex) for this setting. Under the assumption that the Q-functions of all policies are linear in known features of the state-action pairs, we show that our algorithms have polynomial query and computational costs in the dimension of the features, the effective planning horizon, and the targeted sub-optimality, while these costs are independent of the size of the state space. One technical contribution of our work is the introduction of a novel proof technique that makes use of a virtual policy iteration algorithm. We use this method to leverage existing results on $\ell_\infty$-bounded approximate policy iteration to show that our algorithm can learn the optimal policy for the given initial state even only with local access to the simulator. We believe that this technique can be extended to broader settings beyond this work.
In this chapter, we discuss recent work on learning sparse approximations to high-dimensional functions on data, where the target functions may be scalar-, vector- or even Hilbert space-valued. Our main objective is to study how the sampling strategy affects the sample complexity -- that is, the number of samples that suffice for accurate and stable recovery -- and to use this insight to obtain optimal or near-optimal sampling procedures. We consider two settings. First, when a target sparse representation is known, in which case we present a near-complete answer based on drawing independent random samples from carefully-designed probability measures. Second, we consider the more challenging scenario when such representation is unknown. In this case, while not giving a full answer, we describe a general construction of sampling measures that improves over standard Monte Carlo sampling. We present examples using algebraic and trigonometric polynomials, and for the former, we also introduce a new procedure for function approximation on irregular (i.e., nontensorial) domains. The effectiveness of this procedure is shown through numerical examples. Finally, we discuss a number of structured sparsity models, and how they may lead to better approximations.
Binary neural networks (BNNs) represent original full-precision weights and activations into 1-bit with sign function. Since the gradient of the conventional sign function is almost zero everywhere which cannot be used for back-propagation, several attempts have been proposed to alleviate the optimization difficulty by using approximate gradient. However, those approximations corrupt the main direction of factual gradient. To this end, we propose to estimate the gradient of sign function in the Fourier frequency domain using the combination of sine functions for training BNNs, namely frequency domain approximation (FDA). The proposed approach does not affect the low-frequency information of the original sign function which occupies most of the overall energy, and high-frequency coefficients will be ignored to avoid the huge computational overhead. In addition, we embed a noise adaptation module into the training phase to compensate the approximation error. The experiments on several benchmark datasets and neural architectures illustrate that the binary network learned using our method achieves the state-of-the-art accuracy. Code will be available at \textit{//gitee.com/mindspore/models/tree/master/research/cv/FDA-BNN}.
In this paper, from a theoretical perspective, we study how powerful graph neural networks (GNNs) can be for learning approximation algorithms for combinatorial problems. To this end, we first establish a new class of GNNs that can solve strictly a wider variety of problems than existing GNNs. Then, we bridge the gap between GNN theory and the theory of distributed local algorithms to theoretically demonstrate that the most powerful GNN can learn approximation algorithms for the minimum dominating set problem and the minimum vertex cover problem with some approximation ratios and that no GNN can perform better than with these ratios. This paper is the first to elucidate approximation ratios of GNNs for combinatorial problems. Furthermore, we prove that adding coloring or weak-coloring to each node feature improves these approximation ratios. This indicates that preprocessing and feature engineering theoretically strengthen model capabilities.
Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change points is estimated using strong smoothing. In the second stage, a constrained smoothing spline fit is performed with the smoothing level chosen to minimize the MSE. The imposed constraint is that a single change point occurs in a region about each empirical change point of the first-stage estimate. This constraint is equivalent to requiring that the third derivative of the second-stage estimate has a single sign in a small neighborhood about each first-stage change point. We sketch how PCF may be applied to signal recovery, instantaneous frequency estimation, surface reconstruction, image segmentation, spectral estimation and multivariate adaptive regression.
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