We provide guarantees for approximate Gaussian Process (GP) regression resulting from two common low-rank kernel approximations: based on random Fourier features, and based on truncating the kernel's Mercer expansion. In particular, we bound the Kullback-Leibler divergence between an exact GP and one resulting from one of the afore-described low-rank approximations to its kernel, as well as between their corresponding predictive densities, and we also bound the error between predictive mean vectors and between predictive covariance matrices computed using the exact versus using the approximate GP. We provide experiments on both simulated data and standard benchmarks to evaluate the effectiveness of our theoretical bounds.
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We study the theoretical properties of the fused lasso procedure originally proposed by \cite{tibshirani2005sparsity} in the context of a linear regression model in which the regression coefficient are totally ordered and assumed to be sparse and piecewise constant. Despite its popularity, to the best of our knowledge, estimation error bounds in high-dimensional settings have only been obtained for the simple case in which the design matrix is the identity matrix. We formulate a novel restricted isometry condition on the design matrix that is tailored to the fused lasso estimator and derive estimation bounds for both the constrained version of the fused lasso assuming dense coefficients and for its penalised version. We observe that the estimation error can be dominated by either the lasso or the fused lasso rate, depending on whether the number of non-zero coefficient is larger than the number of piece-wise constant segments. Finally, we devise a post-processing procedure to recover the piecewise-constant pattern of the coefficients. Extensive numerical experiments support our theoretical findings.
The scope of this paper is the analysis and approximation of an optimal control problem related to the Allen-Cahn equation. A tracking functional is minimized subject to the Allen-Cahn equation using distributed controls that satisfy point-wise control constraints. First and second order necessary and sufficient conditions are proved. The lowest order discontinuous Galerkin - in time - scheme is considered for the approximation of the control to state and adjoint state mappings. Under a suitable restriction on maximum size of the temporal and spatial discretization parameters $k$, $h$ respectively in terms of the parameter $\epsilon$ that describes the thickness of the interface layer, a-priori estimates are proved with constants depending polynomially upon $1/ \epsilon$. Unlike to previous works for the uncontrolled Allen-Cahn problem our approach does not rely on a construction of an approximation of the spectral estimate, and as a consequence our estimates are valid under low regularity assumptions imposed by the optimal control setting. These estimates are also valid in cases where the solution and its discrete approximation do not satisfy uniform space-time bounds independent of $\epsilon$. These estimates and a suitable localization technique, via the second order condition (see \cite{Arada-Casas-Troltzsch_2002,Casas-Mateos-Troltzsch_2005,Casas-Raymond_2006,Casas-Mateos-Raymond_2007}), allows to prove error estimates for the difference between local optimal controls and their discrete approximation as well as between the associated state and adjoint state variables and their discrete approximations
Ensemble methods based on subsampling, such as random forests, are popular in applications due to their high predictive accuracy. Existing literature views a random forest prediction as an infinite-order incomplete U-statistic to quantify its uncertainty. However, these methods focus on a small subsampling size of each tree, which is theoretically valid but practically limited. This paper develops an unbiased variance estimator based on incomplete U-statistics, which allows the tree size to be comparable with the overall sample size, making statistical inference possible in a broader range of real applications. Simulation results demonstrate that our estimators enjoy lower bias and more accurate confidence interval coverage without additional computational costs. We also propose a local smoothing procedure to reduce the variation of our estimator, which shows improved numerical performance when the number of trees is relatively small. Further, we investigate the ratio consistency of our proposed variance estimator under specific scenarios. In particular, we develop a new "double U-statistic" formulation to analyze the Hoeffding decomposition of the estimator's variance.
Analytic-DPM: an Analytic Estimate of the Optimal Reverse Variance in Diffusion Probabilistic Models
Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) represent a class of powerful generative models. Despite their success, the inference of DPMs is expensive since it generally needs to iterate over thousands of timesteps. A key problem in the inference is to estimate the variance in each timestep of the reverse process. In this work, we present a surprising result that both the optimal reverse variance and the corresponding optimal KL divergence of a DPM have analytic forms w.r.t. its score function. Building upon it, we propose Analytic-DPM, a training-free inference framework that estimates the analytic forms of the variance and KL divergence using the Monte Carlo method and a pretrained score-based model. Further, to correct the potential bias caused by the score-based model, we derive both lower and upper bounds of the optimal variance and clip the estimate for a better result. Empirically, our analytic-DPM improves the log-likelihood of various DPMs, produces high-quality samples, and meanwhile enjoys a 20x to 80x speed up.
We develop methodology for testing hypotheses regarding the slope function in functional linear regression for time series via a reproducing kernel Hilbert space approach. In contrast to most of the literature, which considers tests for the exact nullity of the slope function, we are interested in the null hypothesis that the slope function vanishes only approximately, where deviations are measured with respect to the $L^2$-norm. An asymptotically pivotal test is proposed, which does not require the estimation of nuisance parameters and long-run covariances. The key technical tools to prove the validity of our approach include a uniform Bahadur representation and a weak invariance principle for a sequential process of estimates of the slope function. Both scalar-on-function and function-on-function linear regression are considered and finite-sample methods for implementing our methodology are provided. We also illustrate the potential of our methods by means of a small simulation study and a data example.
We introduce the problem of finding a set $B$ of $k$ points in $[0,1]^n$ such that the expected cost of the cheapest point in $B$ that dominates a random point from $[0,1]^n$ is minimized. We study the case where the coordinates of the random points are independently distributed and the cost function is linear. This problem arises naturally in various application areas where customers' requests are satisfied based on predefined products, each corresponding to a subset of features. We show that the problem is NP-hard already for $k=2$ when each coordinate is drawn from $\{0,1\}$, and obtain an FPTAS for general fixed $k$ under mild assumptions on the distributions.
In the context of principal components analysis (PCA), the bootstrap is commonly applied to solve a variety of inference problems, such as constructing confidence intervals for the eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix $\Sigma$. However, when the data are high-dimensional, there are relatively few theoretical guarantees that quantify the performance of the bootstrap. Our aim in this paper is to analyze how well the bootstrap can approximate the joint distribution of the leading eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix $\hat\Sigma$, and we establish non-asymptotic rates of approximation with respect to the multivariate Kolmogorov metric. Under certain assumptions, we show that the bootstrap can achieve the dimension-free rate of ${\tt{r}}(\Sigma)/\sqrt n$ up to logarithmic factors, where ${\tt{r}}(\Sigma)$ is the effective rank of $\Sigma$, and $n$ is the sample size. From a methodological standpoint, our work also illustrates that applying a transformation to the eigenvalues of $\hat\Sigma$ before bootstrapping is an important consideration in high-dimensional settings.
This paper introduces the Banzhaf and Banzhaf-Owen values as novel centrality measures for ranking terrorists in a network. This new approach let integrate the complete topology (i.e. nodes and edges) of the network and a coalitional structure on the nodes of the network. More precisely, the characteristics of the nodes (e.g., terrorists) of the network and their possible relationships (e.g., types of communication links), as well as coalitional information (e.g. level of hierarchies) independent of the network. First, for both centrality measures, we provide approximation algorithms and the corresponding R-codes. Second, as illustration, we rank the members of the Zerkani network, responsible for the attacks in Paris (2015) and Brussels (2016). Finally, we give a comparison between the rankings established by Banzhaf and Banzhaf-Owen and the rankings obtained when using the Shapley value (cf. Hamers et al., 2019) and the Owen value as centrality measures
In this paper, we propose a listwise approach for constructing user-specific rankings in recommendation systems in a collaborative fashion. We contrast the listwise approach to previous pointwise and pairwise approaches, which are based on treating either each rating or each pairwise comparison as an independent instance respectively. By extending the work of (Cao et al. 2007), we cast listwise collaborative ranking as maximum likelihood under a permutation model which applies probability mass to permutations based on a low rank latent score matrix. We present a novel algorithm called SQL-Rank, which can accommodate ties and missing data and can run in linear time. We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing listwise ranking methods based on a novel representation theory for the permutation model. Applying this framework to collaborative ranking, we derive asymptotic statistical rates as the number of users and items grow together. We conclude by demonstrating that our SQL-Rank method often outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms for implicit feedback such as Weighted-MF and BPR and achieve favorable results when compared to explicit feedback algorithms such as matrix factorization and collaborative ranking.
We propose a new approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) based on the deep Gaussian process (deep GP) model, which is capable of learning complicated reward structures with few demonstrations. Our model stacks multiple latent GP layers to learn abstract representations of the state feature space, which is linked to the demonstrations through the Maximum Entropy learning framework. Incorporating the IRL engine into the nonlinear latent structure renders existing deep GP inference approaches intractable. To tackle this, we develop a non-standard variational approximation framework which extends previous inference schemes. This allows for approximate Bayesian treatment of the feature space and guards against overfitting. Carrying out representation and inverse reinforcement learning simultaneously within our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, as we demonstrate with experiments on standard benchmarks ("object world","highway driving") and a new benchmark ("binary world").
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