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We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether volatility of an asset follows a standard semimartingale process, with paths of finite quadratic variation, or a rough process with paths of infinite quadratic variation. The test utilizes the fact that volatility is rough if and only if volatility increments are negatively autocorrelated at high frequencies. It is based on the sample autocovariance of increments of spot volatility estimates computed from high-frequency asset return data. By showing a feasible CLT for this statistic under the null hypothesis of semimartingale volatility paths, we construct a test with fixed asymptotic size and an asymptotic power equal to one. The test is derived under very general conditions for the data-generating process. In particular, it is robust to jumps with arbitrary activity and to the presence of market microstructure noise. In an application of the test to SPY high-frequency data, we find evidence for rough volatility.

High-performance computing (HPC) has revolutionized our ability to perform detailed simulations of complex real-world processes. A prominent contemporary example is from aerospace propulsion, where HPC is used for rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) simulations in support of the design of next-generation rocket engines; however, these simulations take millions of core hours even on powerful supercomputers, which makes them impractical for engineering tasks like design exploration and risk assessment. Reduced-order models (ROMs) address this limitation by constructing computationally cheap yet sufficiently accurate approximations that serve as surrogates for the high-fidelity model. This paper contributes a new distributed algorithm that achieves fast and scalable construction of predictive physics-based ROMs trained from sparse datasets of extremely large state dimension. The algorithm learns structured physics-based ROMs that approximate the dynamical systems underlying those datasets. This enables model reduction for problems at a scale and complexity that exceeds the capabilities of existing approaches. We demonstrate our algorithm's scalability using up to $2,048$ cores on the Frontera supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center. We focus on a real-world three-dimensional RDRE for which one millisecond of simulated physical time requires one million core hours on a supercomputer. Using a training dataset of $2,536$ snapshots each of state dimension $76$ million, our distributed algorithm enables the construction of a predictive data-driven reduced model in just $13$ seconds on $2,048$ cores on Frontera.

This work explores the representation of univariate and multivariate functions as matrix product states (MPS), also known as quantized tensor-trains (QTT). It proposes an algorithm that employs iterative Chebyshev expansions and Clenshaw evaluations to represent analytic and highly differentiable functions as MPS Chebyshev interpolants. It demonstrates rapid convergence for highly-differentiable functions, aligning with theoretical predictions, and generalizes efficiently to multidimensional scenarios. The performance of the algorithm is compared with that of tensor cross-interpolation (TCI) and multiscale interpolative constructions through a comprehensive comparative study. When function evaluation is inexpensive or when the function is not analytical, TCI is generally more efficient for function loading. However, the proposed method shows competitive performance, outperforming TCI in certain multivariate scenarios. Moreover, it shows advantageous scaling rates and generalizes to a wider range of tasks by providing a framework for function composition in MPS, which is useful for non-linear problems and many-body statistical physics.

Happ and Greven (2018) developed a methodology for principal components analysis of multivariate functional data for data observed on different dimensional domains. Their approach relies on an estimation of univariate functional principal components for each univariate functional feature. In this paper, we present extensive simulations to investigate choosing the number of principal components to retain. We show empirically that the conventional approach of using a percentage of variance explained threshold for each univariate functional feature may be unreliable when aiming to explain an overall percentage of variance in the multivariate functional data, and thus we advise practitioners to be careful when using it.

Despite the wide usage of parametric point processes in theory and applications, a sound goodness-of-fit procedure to test whether a given parametric model is appropriate for data coming from a self-exciting point processes has been missing in the literature. In this work, we establish a bootstrap-based goodness-of-fit test which empirically works for all kinds of self-exciting point processes (and even beyond). In an infill-asymptotic setting we also prove its asymptotic consistency, albeit only in the particular case that the underlying point process is inhomogeneous Poisson.

The structure of data organization is widely recognized as having a substantial influence on the efficacy of machine learning algorithms, particularly in binary classification tasks. Our research provides a theoretical framework suggesting that the maximum potential of binary classifiers on a given dataset is primarily constrained by the inherent qualities of the data. Through both theoretical reasoning and empirical examination, we employed standard objective functions, evaluative metrics, and binary classifiers to arrive at two principal conclusions. Firstly, we show that the theoretical upper bound of binary classification performance on actual datasets can be theoretically attained. This upper boundary represents a calculable equilibrium between the learning loss and the metric of evaluation. Secondly, we have computed the precise upper bounds for three commonly used evaluation metrics, uncovering a fundamental uniformity with our overarching thesis: the upper bound is intricately linked to the dataset's characteristics, independent of the classifier in use. Additionally, our subsequent analysis uncovers a detailed relationship between the upper limit of performance and the level of class overlap within the binary classification data. This relationship is instrumental for pinpointing the most effective feature subsets for use in feature engineering.

Motivated by the application of saddlepoint approximations to resampling-based statistical tests, we prove that a Lugananni-Rice style approximation for conditional tail probabilities of averages of conditionally independent random variables has vanishing relative error. We also provide a general condition on the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the corresponding saddlepoint equation. The results are valid under a broad class of distributions involving no restrictions on the smoothness of the distribution function. The derived saddlepoint approximation formula can be directly applied to resampling-based hypothesis tests, including bootstrap, sign-flipping and conditional randomization tests. Our results extend and connect several classical saddlepoint approximation results. On the way to proving our main results, we prove a new conditional Berry-Esseen inequality for the sum of conditionally independent random variables, which may be of independent interest.

Nonparametric tests for functional data are a challenging class of tests to work with because of the potentially high dimensional nature of the data. One of the main challenges for considering rank-based tests, like the Mann-Whitney or Wilcoxon Rank Sum tests (MWW), is that the unit of observation is typically a curve. Thus any rank-based test must consider ways of ranking curves. While several procedures, including depth-based methods, have recently been used to create scores for rank-based tests, these scores are not constructed under the null and often introduce additional, uncontrolled for variability. We therefore reconsider the problem of rank-based tests for functional data and develop an alternative approach that incorporates the null hypothesis throughout. Our approach first ranks realizations from the curves at each measurement occurrence, then calculates a summary statistic for the ranks of each subject, and finally re-ranks the summary statistic in a procedure we refer to as a doubly ranked test. We propose two summaries for the middle step: a sufficient statistic and the average rank. As we demonstrate, doubly rank tests are more powerful while maintaining ideal type I error in the two sample, MWW setting. We also extend our framework to more than two samples, developing a Kruskal-Wallis test for functional data which exhibits good test characteristics as well. Finally, we illustrate the use of doubly ranked tests in functional data contexts from material science, climatology, and public health policy.

We prove the existence of signed combinatorial interpretations for several large families of structure constants. These families include standard bases of symmetric and quasisymmetric polynomials, as well as various bases in Schubert theory. The results are stated in the language of computational complexity, while the proofs are based on the effective M\"obius inversion.