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Efficient and accurate estimation of multivariate empirical probability distributions is fundamental to the calculation of information-theoretic measures such as mutual information and transfer entropy. Common techniques include variations on histogram estimation which, whilst computationally efficient, are often unable to precisely capture the probability density of samples with high correlation, kurtosis or fine substructure, especially when sample sizes are small. Adaptive partitions, which adjust heuristically to the sample, can reduce the bias imparted from the geometry of the histogram itself, but these have commonly focused on the location, scale and granularity of the partition, the effects of which are limited for highly correlated distributions. In this paper, I reformulate the differential entropy estimator for the special case of an equiprobable histogram, using a k-d tree to partition the sample space into bins of equal probability mass. By doing so, I expose an implicit rotational orientation parameter, which is conjectured to be suboptimally specified in the typical marginal alignment. I propose that the optimal orientation minimises the variance of the bin volumes, and demonstrate that improved entropy estimates can be obtained by rotationally aligning the partition to the sample distribution accordingly. Such optimal partitions are observed to be more accurate than existing techniques in estimating entropies of correlated bivariate Gaussian distributions with known theoretical values, across varying sample sizes (99% CI).

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

Automated code instrumentation, i.e. the insertion of measurement hooks into a target application by the compiler, is an established technique for collecting reliable, fine-grained performance data. The set of functions to instrument has to be selected with care, as instrumenting every available function typically yields too large a runtime overhead, thus skewing the measurement. No "one-suits-all" selection mechanism exists, since the instrumentation decision is dependent on the measurement objective, the limit for tolerable runtime overhead and peculiarities of the target application. The Compiler-assisted Performance Instrumentation (CaPI) tool assists in creating such instrumentation configurations, by enabling the user to combine different selection mechanisms as part of a configurable selection pipeline, operating on a statically constructed whole-program call-graph. Previously, CaPI relied on a static instrumentation workflow which made the process of refining the initial selection quite cumbersome for large-scale codes, as the application had to be recompiled after each adjustment. In this work, we present new runtime-adaptable instrumentation capabilities for CaPI which do not require recompilation when instrumentation changes are made. To this end, the XRay instrumentation feature of the LLVM compiler was extended to support the instrumentation of shared dynamic objects. An XRay-compatible runtime system was added to CaPI that instruments selected functions at program start, thereby significantly reducing the required time for selection refinements. Furthermore, an interface to the TALP tool for recording parallel efficiency metrics was implemented, alongside a specialized selection module for creating suitable coarse-grained region instrumentations.

It is a common phenomenon that for high-dimensional and nonparametric statistical models, rate-optimal estimators balance squared bias and variance. Although this balancing is widely observed, little is known whether methods exist that could avoid the trade-off between bias and variance. We propose a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of any estimator with bias smaller than a prespecified bound. This shows to which extent the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and allows to quantify the loss of performance for methods that do not obey it. The approach is based on a number of abstract lower bounds for the variance involving the change of expectation with respect to different probability measures as well as information measures such as the Kullback-Leibler or $\chi^2$-divergence. In a second part of the article, the abstract lower bounds are applied to several statistical models including the Gaussian white noise model, a boundary estimation problem, the Gaussian sequence model and the high-dimensional linear regression model. For these specific statistical applications, different types of bias-variance trade-offs occur that vary considerably in their strength. For the trade-off between integrated squared bias and integrated variance in the Gaussian white noise model, we propose to combine the general strategy for lower bounds with a reduction technique. This allows us to reduce the original problem to a lower bound on the bias-variance trade-off for estimators with additional symmetry properties in a simpler statistical model. In the Gaussian sequence model, different phase transitions of the bias-variance trade-off occur. Although there is a non-trivial interplay between bias and variance, the rate of the squared bias and the variance do not have to be balanced in order to achieve the minimax estimation rate.

With the rising complexity of numerous novel applications that serve our modern society comes the strong need to design efficient computing platforms. Designing efficient hardware is, however, a complex multi-objective problem that deals with multiple parameters and their interactions. Given that there are a large number of parameters and objectives involved in hardware design, synthesizing all possible combinations is not a feasible method to find the optimal solution. One promising approach to tackle this problem is statistical modeling of a desired hardware performance. Here, we propose a model-based active learning approach to solve this problem. Our proposed method uses Bayesian models to characterize various aspects of hardware performance. We also use transfer learning and Gaussian regression bootstrapping techniques in conjunction with active learning to create more accurate models. Our proposed statistical modeling method provides hardware models that are sufficiently accurate to perform design space exploration as well as performance prediction simultaneously. We use our proposed method to perform design space exploration and performance prediction for various hardware setups, such as micro-architecture design and OpenCL kernels for FPGA targets. Our experiments show that the number of samples required to create performance models significantly reduces while maintaining the predictive power of our proposed statistical models. For instance, in our performance prediction setting, the proposed method needs 65% fewer samples to create the model, and in the design space exploration setting, our proposed method can find the best parameter settings by exploring less than 50 samples.

Q-learning, which seeks to learn the optimal Q-function of a Markov decision process (MDP) in a model-free fashion, lies at the heart of reinforcement learning. When it comes to the synchronous setting (such that independent samples for all state-action pairs are drawn from a generative model in each iteration), substantial progress has been made towards understanding the sample efficiency of Q-learning. Consider a $\gamma$-discounted infinite-horizon MDP with state space $\mathcal{S}$ and action space $\mathcal{A}$: to yield an entrywise $\varepsilon$-approximation of the optimal Q-function, state-of-the-art theory for Q-learning requires a sample size exceeding the order of $\frac{|\mathcal{S}||\mathcal{A}|}{(1-\gamma)^5\varepsilon^{2}}$, which fails to match existing minimax lower bounds. This gives rise to natural questions: what is the sharp sample complexity of Q-learning? Is Q-learning provably sub-optimal? This paper addresses these questions for the synchronous setting: (1) when $|\mathcal{A}|=1$ (so that Q-learning reduces to TD learning), we prove that the sample complexity of TD learning is minimax optimal and scales as $\frac{|\mathcal{S}|}{(1-\gamma)^3\varepsilon^2}$ (up to log factor); (2) when $|\mathcal{A}|\geq 2$, we settle the sample complexity of Q-learning to be on the order of $\frac{|\mathcal{S}||\mathcal{A}|}{(1-\gamma)^4\varepsilon^2}$ (up to log factor). Our theory unveils the strict sub-optimality of Q-learning when $|\mathcal{A}|\geq 2$, and rigorizes the negative impact of over-estimation in Q-learning. Finally, we extend our analysis to accommodate asynchronous Q-learning (i.e., the case with Markovian samples), sharpening the horizon dependency of its sample complexity to be $\frac{1}{(1-\gamma)^4}$.

Most multi-objective optimisation algorithms maintain an archive explicitly or implicitly during their search. Such an archive can be solely used to store high-quality solutions presented to the decision maker, but in many cases may participate in the search process (e.g., as the population in evolutionary computation). Over the last two decades, archiving, the process of comparing new solutions with previous ones and deciding how to update the archive/population, stands as an important issue in evolutionary multi-objective optimisation (EMO). This is evidenced by constant efforts from the community on developing various effective archiving methods, ranging from conventional Pareto-based methods to more recent indicator-based and decomposition-based ones. However, the focus of these efforts is on empirical performance comparison in terms of specific quality indicators; there is lack of systematic study of archiving methods from a general theoretical perspective. In this paper, we attempt to conduct a systematic overview of multi-objective archiving, in the hope of paving the way to understand archiving algorithms from a holistic perspective of theory and practice, and more importantly providing a guidance on how to design theoretically desirable and practically useful archiving algorithms. In doing so, we also present that archiving algorithms based on weakly Pareto compliant indicators (e.g., epsilon-indicator), as long as designed properly, can achieve the same theoretical desirables as archivers based on Pareto compliant indicators (e.g., hypervolume indicator). Such desirables include the property limit-optimal, the limit form of the possible optimal property that a bounded archiving algorithm can have with respect to the most general form of superiority between solution sets.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.