Aerosol particles play an important role in the climate system by absorbing and scattering radiation and influencing cloud properties. They are also one of the biggest sources of uncertainty for climate modeling. Many climate models do not include aerosols in sufficient detail. In order to achieve higher accuracy, aerosol microphysical properties and processes have to be accounted for. This is done in the ECHAM-HAM global climate aerosol model using the M7 microphysics model, but increased computational costs make it very expensive to run at higher resolutions or for a longer time. We aim to use machine learning to approximate the microphysics model at sufficient accuracy and reduce the computational cost by being fast at inference time. The original M7 model is used to generate data of input-output pairs to train a neural network on it. By using a special logarithmic transform we are able to learn the variables tendencies achieving an average $R^2$ score of $89\%$. On a GPU we achieve a speed-up of 120 compared to the original model.
Models are used in both Software Engineering (SE) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). SE models may specify the architecture at different levels of abstraction and for addressing different concerns at various stages of the software development life-cycle, from early conceptualization and design, to verification, implementation, testing and evolution. However, AI models may provide smart capabilities, such as prediction and decision-making support. For instance, in Machine Learning (ML), which is currently the most popular sub-discipline of AI, mathematical models may learn useful patterns in the observed data and can become capable of making predictions. The goal of this work is to create synergy by bringing models in the said communities together and proposing a holistic approach to model-driven software development for intelligent systems that require ML. We illustrate how software models can become capable of creating and dealing with ML models in a seamless manner. The main focus is on the domain of the Internet of Things (IoT), where both ML and model-driven SE play a key role. In the context of the need to take a Cyber-Physical System-of-Systems perspective of the targeted architecture, an integrated design environment for both SE and ML sub-systems would best support the optimization and overall efficiency of the implementation of the resulting system. In particular, we implement the proposed approach, called ML-Quadrat, based on ThingML, and validate it using a case study from the IoT domain, as well as through an empirical user evaluation. It transpires that the proposed approach is not only feasible, but may also contribute to the performance leap of software development for smart Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) which are connected to the IoT, as well as an enhanced user experience of the practitioners who use the proposed modeling solution.
The discrepancies between reality and simulation impede the optimisation and scalability of solid-state quantum devices. Disorder induced by the unpredictable distribution of material defects is one of the major contributions to the reality gap. We bridge this gap using physics-aware machine learning, in particular, using an approach combining a physical model, deep learning, Gaussian random field, and Bayesian inference. This approach has enabled us to infer the disorder potential of a nanoscale electronic device from electron transport data. This inference is validated by verifying the algorithm's predictions about the gate voltage values required for a laterally-defined quantum dot device in AlGaAs/GaAs to produce current features corresponding to a double quantum dot regime.
The recent development of machine learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) increases the opportunities in all the sectors. ML is a significant tool that can be applied across many disciplines, but its direct application to civil engineering problems can be challenging. ML for civil engineering applications that are simulated in the lab often fail in real-world tests. This is usually attributed to a data mismatch between the data used to train and test the ML model and the data it encounters in the real world, a phenomenon known as data shift. However, a physics-based ML model integrates data, partial differential equations (PDEs), and mathematical models to solve data shift problems. Physics-based ML models are trained to solve supervised learning tasks while respecting any given laws of physics described by general nonlinear equations. Physics-based ML, which takes center stage across many science disciplines, plays an important role in fluid dynamics, quantum mechanics, computational resources, and data storage. This paper reviews the history of physics-based ML and its application in civil engineering.
Combination and aggregation techniques can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This also holds for probabilistic forecasting methods where predictive distributions are combined. There are several time-varying and adaptive weighting schemes such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, the quality of different forecasts may vary not only over time but also within the distribution. For example, some distribution forecasts may be more accurate in the center of the distributions, while others are better at predicting the tails. Therefore, we introduce a new weighting method that considers the differences in performance over time and within the distribution. We discuss pointwise combination algorithms based on aggregation across quantiles that optimize with respect to the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). After analyzing the theoretical properties of pointwise CRPS learning, we discuss B- and P-Spline-based estimation techniques for batch and online learning, based on quantile regression and prediction with expert advice. We prove that the proposed fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method for pointwise CRPS online learning has optimal convergence properties. They are confirmed in simulations and a probabilistic forecasting study for European emission allowance (EUA) prices.
We consider the problem of learning stabilizable systems governed by nonlinear state equation $h_{t+1}=\phi(h_t,u_t;\theta)+w_t$. Here $\theta$ is the unknown system dynamics, $h_t $ is the state, $u_t$ is the input and $w_t$ is the additive noise vector. We study gradient based algorithms to learn the system dynamics $\theta$ from samples obtained from a single finite trajectory. If the system is run by a stabilizing input policy, we show that temporally-dependent samples can be approximated by i.i.d. samples via a truncation argument by using mixing-time arguments. We then develop new guarantees for the uniform convergence of the gradients of empirical loss. Unlike existing work, our bounds are noise sensitive which allows for learning ground-truth dynamics with high accuracy and small sample complexity. Together, our results facilitate efficient learning of the general nonlinear system under stabilizing policy. We specialize our guarantees to entry-wise nonlinear activations and verify our theory in various numerical experiments
Recent advances in sensor and mobile devices have enabled an unprecedented increase in the availability and collection of urban trajectory data, thus increasing the demand for more efficient ways to manage and analyze the data being produced. In this survey, we comprehensively review recent research trends in trajectory data management, ranging from trajectory pre-processing, storage, common trajectory analytic tools, such as querying spatial-only and spatial-textual trajectory data, and trajectory clustering. We also explore four closely related analytical tasks commonly used with trajectory data in interactive or real-time processing. Deep trajectory learning is also reviewed for the first time. Finally, we outline the essential qualities that a trajectory management system should possess in order to maximize flexibility.
The demand for artificial intelligence has grown significantly over the last decade and this growth has been fueled by advances in machine learning techniques and the ability to leverage hardware acceleration. However, in order to increase the quality of predictions and render machine learning solutions feasible for more complex applications, a substantial amount of training data is required. Although small machine learning models can be trained with modest amounts of data, the input for training larger models such as neural networks grows exponentially with the number of parameters. Since the demand for processing training data has outpaced the increase in computation power of computing machinery, there is a need for distributing the machine learning workload across multiple machines, and turning the centralized into a distributed system. These distributed systems present new challenges, first and foremost the efficient parallelization of the training process and the creation of a coherent model. This article provides an extensive overview of the current state-of-the-art in the field by outlining the challenges and opportunities of distributed machine learning over conventional (centralized) machine learning, discussing the techniques used for distributed machine learning, and providing an overview of the systems that are available.
Deep learning (DL) is a high dimensional data reduction technique for constructing high-dimensional predictors in input-output models. DL is a form of machine learning that uses hierarchical layers of latent features. In this article, we review the state-of-the-art of deep learning from a modeling and algorithmic perspective. We provide a list of successful areas of applications in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Image Processing, Robotics and Automation. Deep learning is predictive in its nature rather then inferential and can be viewed as a black-box methodology for high-dimensional function estimation.
Sequence to sequence learning models still require several days to reach state of the art performance on large benchmark datasets using a single machine. This paper shows that reduced precision and large batch training can speedup training by nearly 5x on a single 8-GPU machine with careful tuning and implementation. On WMT'14 English-German translation, we match the accuracy of (Vaswani et al 2017) in under 5 hours when training on 8 GPUs and we obtain a new state of the art of 29.3 BLEU after training for 91 minutes on 128 GPUs. We further improve these results to 29.8 BLEU by training on the much larger Paracrawl dataset.
Partially inspired by successful applications of variational recurrent neural networks, we propose a novel variational recurrent neural machine translation (VRNMT) model in this paper. Different from the variational NMT, VRNMT introduces a series of latent random variables to model the translation procedure of a sentence in a generative way, instead of a single latent variable. Specifically, the latent random variables are included into the hidden states of the NMT decoder with elements from the variational autoencoder. In this way, these variables are recurrently generated, which enables them to further capture strong and complex dependencies among the output translations at different timesteps. In order to deal with the challenges in performing efficient posterior inference and large-scale training during the incorporation of latent variables, we build a neural posterior approximator, and equip it with a reparameterization technique to estimate the variational lower bound. Experiments on Chinese-English and English-German translation tasks demonstrate that the proposed model achieves significant improvements over both the conventional and variational NMT models.