Distributional shift, or the mismatch between training and deployment data, is a significant obstacle to the usage of machine learning in high-stakes industrial applications, such as autonomous driving and medicine. This creates a need to be able to assess how robustly ML models generalize as well as the quality of their uncertainty estimates. Standard ML baseline datasets do not allow these properties to be assessed, as the training, validation and test data are often identically distributed. Recently, a range of dedicated benchmarks have appeared, featuring both distributionally matched and shifted data. Among these benchmarks, the Shifts dataset stands out in terms of the diversity of tasks as well as the data modalities it features. While most of the benchmarks are heavily dominated by 2D image classification tasks, Shifts contains tabular weather forecasting, machine translation, and vehicle motion prediction tasks. This enables the robustness properties of models to be assessed on a diverse set of industrial-scale tasks and either universal or directly applicable task-specific conclusions to be reached. In this paper, we extend the Shifts Dataset with two datasets sourced from industrial, high-risk applications of high societal importance. Specifically, we consider the tasks of segmentation of white matter Multiple Sclerosis lesions in 3D magnetic resonance brain images and the estimation of power consumption in marine cargo vessels. Both tasks feature ubiquitous distributional shifts and a strict safety requirement due to the high cost of errors. These new datasets will allow researchers to further explore robust generalization and uncertainty estimation in new situations. In this work, we provide a description of the dataset and baseline results for both tasks.
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In this work, we tackle two widespread challenges in real applications for time-series forecasting that have been largely understudied: distribution shifts and missing data. We propose SpectraNet, a novel multivariate time-series forecasting model that dynamically infers a latent space spectral decomposition to capture current temporal dynamics and correlations on the recent observed history. A Convolution Neural Network maps the learned representation by sequentially mixing its components and refining the output. Our proposed approach can simultaneously produce forecasts and interpolate past observations and can, therefore, greatly simplify production systems by unifying imputation and forecasting tasks into a single model. SpectraNet achieves SoTA performance simultaneously on both tasks on five benchmark datasets, compared to forecasting and imputation models, with up to 92% fewer parameters and comparable training times. On settings with up to 80% missing data, SpectraNet has average performance improvements of almost 50% over the second-best alternative. Our code is available at //github.com/cchallu/spectranet.
Conformal inference is a powerful tool for quantifying the uncertainty around predictions made by black-box models (e.g. neural nets, random forests). Formally, this methodology guarantees that if the training and test data are exchangeable (e.g. i.i.d.) then we can construct a prediction set $C$ for the target $Y$ such that $P(Y \in C) = 1-\alpha$ for any target level $\alpha$. In this article, we extend this methodology to an online prediction setting where the distribution generating the data is allowed to vary over time. To account for the non-exchangeability, we develop a protective layer that lies on top of conformal inference and gradually re-calibrates its predictions to adapt to the observed changes in the environment. Our methods are highly flexible and can be used in combination with any predictive algorithm that produces estimates of the target or its conditional distribution and without any assumptions on the size or type of the distribution shift. We test our techniques on two real-world datasets aimed at predicting stock market volatility and COVID-19 case counts and find that they are robust and adaptive to real-world distribution shifts.
We give a method for proactively identifying small, plausible shifts in distribution which lead to large differences in model performance. These shifts are defined via parametric changes in the causal mechanisms of observed variables, where constraints on parameters yield a "robustness set" of plausible distributions and a corresponding worst-case loss over the set. While the loss under an individual parametric shift can be estimated via reweighting techniques such as importance sampling, the resulting worst-case optimization problem is non-convex, and the estimate may suffer from large variance. For small shifts, however, we can construct a local second-order approximation to the loss under shift and cast the problem of finding a worst-case shift as a particular non-convex quadratic optimization problem, for which efficient algorithms are available. We demonstrate that this second-order approximation can be estimated directly for shifts in conditional exponential family models, and we bound the approximation error. We apply our approach to a computer vision task (classifying gender from images), revealing sensitivity to shifts in non-causal attributes.
The capacity to achieve out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is a hallmark of human intelligence and yet remains out of reach for machines. This remarkable capability has been attributed to our abilities to make conceptual abstraction and analogy, and to a mechanism known as indirection, which binds two representations and uses one representation to refer to the other. Inspired by these mechanisms, we hypothesize that OOD generalization may be achieved by performing analogy-making and indirection in the functional space instead of the data space as in current methods. To realize this, we design FINE (Functional Indirection Neural Estimator), a neural framework that learns to compose functions that map data input to output on-the-fly. FINE consists of a backbone network and a trainable semantic memory of basis weight matrices. Upon seeing a new input-output data pair, FINE dynamically constructs the backbone weights by mixing the basis weights. The mixing coefficients are indirectly computed through querying a separate corresponding semantic memory using the data pair. We demonstrate empirically that FINE can strongly improve out-of-distribution generalization on IQ tasks that involve geometric transformations. In particular, we train FINE and competing models on IQ tasks using images from the MNIST, Omniglot and CIFAR100 datasets and test on tasks with unseen image classes from one or different datasets and unseen transformation rules. FINE not only achieves the best performance on all tasks but also is able to adapt to small-scale data scenarios.
We address two major obstacles to practical use of supervised classifiers on distributed private data. Whether a classifier was trained by a federation of cooperating clients or trained centrally out of distribution, (1) the output scores must be calibrated, and (2) performance metrics must be evaluated -- all without assembling labels in one place. In particular, we show how to perform calibration and compute precision, recall, accuracy and ROC-AUC in the federated setting under three privacy models (i) secure aggregation, (ii) distributed differential privacy, (iii) local differential privacy. Our theorems and experiments clarify tradeoffs between privacy, accuracy, and data efficiency. They also help decide whether a given application has sufficient data to support federated calibration and evaluation.
As input data distributions evolve, the predictive performance of machine learning models tends to deteriorate. In the past, predictive performance was considered the key indicator to monitor. However, explanation aspects have come to attention within the last years. In this work, we investigate how model predictive performance and model explanation characteristics are affected under distribution shifts and how these key indicators are related to each other for tabular data. We find that the modeling of explanation shifts can be a better indicator for the detection of predictive performance changes than state-of-the-art techniques based on representations of distribution shifts. We provide a mathematical analysis of different types of distribution shifts as well as synthetic experimental examples.
The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.
Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
In the last years, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has achieved a notable momentum that may deliver the best of expectations over many application sectors across the field. For this to occur, the entire community stands in front of the barrier of explainability, an inherent problem of AI techniques brought by sub-symbolism (e.g. ensembles or Deep Neural Networks) that were not present in the last hype of AI. Paradigms underlying this problem fall within the so-called eXplainable AI (XAI) field, which is acknowledged as a crucial feature for the practical deployment of AI models. This overview examines the existing literature in the field of XAI, including a prospect toward what is yet to be reached. We summarize previous efforts to define explainability in Machine Learning, establishing a novel definition that covers prior conceptual propositions with a major focus on the audience for which explainability is sought. We then propose and discuss about a taxonomy of recent contributions related to the explainability of different Machine Learning models, including those aimed at Deep Learning methods for which a second taxonomy is built. This literature analysis serves as the background for a series of challenges faced by XAI, such as the crossroads between data fusion and explainability. Our prospects lead toward the concept of Responsible Artificial Intelligence, namely, a methodology for the large-scale implementation of AI methods in real organizations with fairness, model explainability and accountability at its core. Our ultimate goal is to provide newcomers to XAI with a reference material in order to stimulate future research advances, but also to encourage experts and professionals from other disciplines to embrace the benefits of AI in their activity sectors, without any prior bias for its lack of interpretability.
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