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Model-free time-to-event regression under confounding presents challenges due to biases introduced by causal and censoring sampling mechanisms. This phenomenology poses problems for classical non-parametric estimators like Beran's or the k-nearest neighbours algorithm. In this study, we propose a natural framework that leverages the structure of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and, specifically, the concept of kernel mean embedding to address these limitations. Our framework has the potential to enable statistical counterfactual modeling, including counterfactual prediction and hypothesis testing, under right-censoring schemes. Through simulations and an application to the SPRINT trial, we demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our method, yielding coherent results when compared to parallel analyses in existing literature. We also provide a theoretical analysis of our estimator through an RKHS-valued empirical process. Our approach offers a novel tool for performing counterfactual survival estimation in observational studies with incomplete information. It can also be complemented by state-of-the-art algorithms based on semi-parametric and parametric models.

We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional nonparametric posterior, we target the functional of interest by transforming the entire distribution with a Bayesian bootstrap correction. We provide conditions for the resulting $\textit{one-step posterior}$ to possess calibrated frequentist properties and specialize the results for several canonical examples: the integrated squared density, the mean of a missing-at-random outcome, and the average causal treatment effect on the treated. The procedure is computationally attractive, requiring only a simple, efficient post-processing step that can be attached onto any arbitrary posterior sampling algorithm. Using the ACIC 2016 causal data analysis competition, we illustrate that our approach can outperform the existing state-of-the-art through the propagation of Bayesian uncertainty.

Large-scale administrative or observational datasets are increasingly used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arise as that selection bias and other forms of distribution shift often plague observational data. Previous attempts to provide robust inferences have given guarantees depending on a user-specified amount of possible distribution shift (e.g., the maximum KL divergence between the observed and target distributions). However, decision makers will often have additional knowledge about the target distribution which constrains the kind of shifts which are possible. To leverage such information, we proposed a framework that enables statistical inference in the presence of distribution shifts which obey user-specified constraints in the form of functions whose expectation is known under the target distribution. The output is high-probability bounds on the value an estimand takes on the target distribution. Hence, our method leverages domain knowledge in order to partially identify a wide class of estimands. We analyze the computational and statistical properties of methods to estimate these bounds, and show that our method can produce informative bounds on a variety of simulated and semisynthetic tasks.

Elliptical distribution is a basic assumption underlying many multivariate statistical methods. For example, in sufficient dimension reduction and statistical graphical models, this assumption is routinely imposed to simplify the data dependence structure. Before applying such methods, we need to decide whether the data are elliptically distributed. Currently existing tests either focus exclusively on spherical distributions, or rely on bootstrap to determine the null distribution, or require specific forms of the alternative distribution. In this paper, we introduce a general nonparametric test for elliptical distribution based on kernel embedding of the probability measure that embodies the two properties that characterize an elliptical distribution: namely, after centering and rescaling, (1) the direction and length of the random vector are independent, and (2) the directional vector is uniformly distributed on the unit sphere. We derive the null asymptotic distribution of the test statistic via von-Mises expansion, develop the sample-level procedure to determine the rejection region, and establish the consistency and validity of the proposed test. We apply our test to a SENIC dataset with and without a transformation aimed to achieve ellipticity.

Prediction, in regression and classification, is one of the main aims in modern data science. When the number of predictors is large, a common first step is to reduce the dimension of the data. Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) is a well established paradigm of reduction that keeps all the relevant information in the covariates X that is necessary for the prediction of Y . In practice, SDR has been successfully used as an exploratory tool for modelling after estimation of the sufficient reduction. Nevertheless, even if the estimated reduction is a consistent estimator of the population, there is no theory that supports this step when non-parametric regression is used in the imputed estimator. In this paper, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the non-parametric regression estimator is the same regardless if the true SDR or its estimator is used. This result allows making inferences, for example, computing confidence intervals for the regression function avoiding the curse of dimensionality.

Nonparametric density estimation is an unsupervised learning problem. In this work we propose a two-step procedure that casts the density estimation problem in the first step into a supervised regression problem. The advantage is that we can afterwards apply supervised learning methods. Compared to the standard nonparametric regression setting, the proposed procedure creates, however, dependence among the training samples. To derive statistical risk bounds, one can therefore not rely on the well-developed theory for i.i.d. data. To overcome this, we prove an oracle inequality for this specific form of data dependence. As an application, it is shown that under a compositional structure assumption on the underlying density the proposed two-step method achieves faster convergence rates. A simulation study illustrates the finite sample performance.

In multivariate time series analysis, the coherence measures the linear dependency between two-time series at different frequencies. However, real data applications often exhibit nonlinear dependency in the frequency domain. Conventional coherence analysis fails to capture such dependency. The quantile coherence, on the other hand, characterizes nonlinear dependency by defining the coherence at a set of quantile levels based on trigonometric quantile regression. Although quantile coherence is a more powerful tool, its estimation remains challenging due to the high level of noise. This paper introduces a new estimation technique for quantile coherence. The proposed method is semi-parametric, which uses the parametric form of the spectrum of the vector autoregressive (VAR) model as an approximation to the quantile spectral matrix, along with nonparametric smoothing across quantiles. For each fixed quantile level, we obtain the VAR parameters from the quantile periodograms, then, using the Durbin-Levinson algorithm, we calculate the preliminary estimate of quantile coherence using the VAR parameters. Finally, we smooth the preliminary estimate of quantile coherence across quantiles using a nonparametric smoother. Numerical results show that the proposed estimation method outperforms nonparametric methods. We show that quantile coherence-based bivariate time series clustering has advantages over the ordinary VAR coherence. For applications, the identified clusters of financial stocks by quantile coherence with a market benchmark are shown to have an intriguing and more accurate structure of diversified investment portfolios that may be used by investors to make better decisions.

Multivariate sequential data collected in practice often exhibit temporal irregularities, including nonuniform time intervals and component misalignment. However, if uneven spacing and asynchrony are endogenous characteristics of the data rather than a result of insufficient observation, the information content of these irregularities plays a defining role in characterizing the multivariate dependence structure. Existing approaches for probabilistic forecasting either overlook the resulting statistical heterogeneities, are susceptible to imputation biases, or impose parametric assumptions on the data distribution. This paper proposes an end-to-end solution that overcomes these limitations by allowing the observation arrival times to play the central role of model construction, which is at the core of temporal irregularities. To acknowledge temporal irregularities, we first enable unique hidden states for components so that the arrival times can dictate when, how, and which hidden states to update. We then develop a conditional flow representation to non-parametrically represent the data distribution, which is typically non-Gaussian, and supervise this representation by carefully factorizing the log-likelihood objective to select conditional information that facilitates capturing time variation and path dependency. The broad applicability and superiority of the proposed solution are confirmed by comparing it with existing approaches through ablation studies and testing on real-world datasets.

A very classical problem in statistics is to test the stochastic superiority of one distribution to another. However, many existing approaches are developed for independent samples and, moreover, do not take censored data into account. We develop a new estimand-driven method to compare the effectiveness of two treatments in the context of right-censored survival data with matched pairs. With the help of competing risks techniques, the so-called relative treatment effect is estimated. It quantifies the probability that the individual undergoing the first treatment survives the matched individual undergoing the second treatment. Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals are based on a studentized version of the estimator, where resampling-based inference is established by means of a randomization method. In a simulation study, we found that the developed test exhibits good power, when compared to competitors which are actually testing the simpler null hypothesis of the equality of both marginal survival functions. Finally, we apply the methodology to a well-known benchmark data set from a trial with patients suffering from with diabetic retinopathy.

In federated frequency estimation (FFE), multiple clients work together to estimate the frequencies of their collective data by communicating with a server that respects the privacy constraints of Secure Summation (SecSum), a cryptographic multi-party computation protocol that ensures that the server can only access the sum of client-held vectors. For single-round FFE, it is known that count sketching is nearly information-theoretically optimal for achieving the fundamental accuracy-communication trade-offs [Chen et al., 2022]. However, we show that under the more practical multi-round FEE setting, simple adaptations of count sketching are strictly sub-optimal, and we propose a novel hybrid sketching algorithm that is provably more accurate. We also address the following fundamental question: how should a practitioner set the sketch size in a way that adapts to the hardness of the underlying problem? We propose a two-phase approach that allows for the use of a smaller sketch size for simpler problems (e.g. near-sparse or light-tailed distributions). We conclude our work by showing how differential privacy can be added to our algorithm and verifying its superior performance through extensive experiments conducted on large-scale datasets.