While ERM suffices to attain near-optimal generalization error in the stochastic learning setting, this is not known to be the case in the online learning setting, where algorithms for general concept classes rely on computationally inefficient oracles such as the Standard Optimal Algorithm (SOA). In this work, we propose an algorithm for online binary classification setting that relies solely on ERM oracle calls, and show that it has finite regret in the realizable setting and sublinearly growing regret in the agnostic setting. We bound the regret in terms of the Littlestone and threshold dimensions of the underlying concept class. We obtain similar results for nonparametric games, where the ERM oracle can be interpreted as a best response oracle, finding the best response of a player to a given history of play of the other players. In this setting, we provide learning algorithms that only rely on best response oracles and converge to approximate-minimax equilibria in two-player zero-sum games and approximate coarse correlated equilibria in multi-player general-sum games, as long as the game has a bounded fat-threshold dimension. Our algorithms apply to both binary-valued and real-valued games and can be viewed as providing justification for the wide use of double oracle and multiple oracle algorithms in the practice of solving large games.
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This papers proposes a generic, high-level methodology for generating forecast combinations that would deliver the optimal linearly combined forecast in terms of the mean-squared forecast error if one had access to two population quantities: the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the vector of individual forecast errors. We point out that this problem is identical to a mean-variance portfolio construction problem, in which portfolio weights correspond to forecast combination weights. We allow negative forecast weights and interpret such weights as hedging over and under estimation risks across estimators. This interpretation follows directly as an implication of the portfolio analogy. We demonstrate our method's improved out-of-sample performance relative to standard methods in combining tree forecasts to form weighted random forests in 14 data sets.
One of the fundamental challenges in drawing causal inferences from observational studies is that the assumption of no unmeasured confounding is not testable from observed data. Therefore, assessing sensitivity to this assumption's violation is important to obtain valid causal conclusions in observational studies. Although several sensitivity analysis frameworks are available in the casual inference literature, none of them are applicable to observational studies with multivalued treatments. To address this issue, we propose a sensitivity analysis framework for performing sensitivity analysis in multivalued treatment settings. Within this framework, a general class of additive causal estimands has been proposed. We demonstrate that the estimation of the causal estimands under the proposed sensitivity model can be performed very efficiently. Simulation results show that the proposed framework performs well in terms of bias of the point estimates and coverage of the confidence intervals when there is sufficient overlap in the covariate distributions. We illustrate the application of our proposed method by conducting an observational study that estimates the causal effect of fish consumption on blood mercury levels.
Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.
It is shown that the psychometric test reliability, based on any true-score model with randomly sampled items and conditionally independent errors, converges to 1 as the test length goes to infinity, assuming some fairly general regularity conditions. The asymptotic rate of convergence is given by the Spearman-Brown formula, and for this it is not needed that the items are parallel, or latent unidimensional, or even finite dimensional. Simulations with the 2-parameter logistic item response theory model reveal that there can be a positive bias in the reliability of short multidimensional tests, meaning that applying the Spearman-Brown formula in these cases would lead to overprediction of the reliability that will result from lengthening the tests. For short unidimensional tests under the 2-parameter logistic model the reliabilities are almost unbiased, meaning that application of the Spearman-Brown formula in these cases leads to predictions that are approximately unbiased.
Offline reinforcement learning (RL), which aims to learn an optimal policy using a previously collected static dataset, is an important paradigm of RL. Standard RL methods often perform poorly in this regime due to the function approximation errors on out-of-distribution actions. While a variety of regularization methods have been proposed to mitigate this issue, they are often constrained by policy classes with limited expressiveness that can lead to highly suboptimal solutions. In this paper, we propose representing the policy as a diffusion model, a recent class of highly-expressive deep generative models. We introduce Diffusion Q-learning (Diffusion-QL) that utilizes a conditional diffusion model to represent the policy. In our approach, we learn an action-value function and we add a term maximizing action-values into the training loss of the conditional diffusion model, which results in a loss that seeks optimal actions that are near the behavior policy. We show the expressiveness of the diffusion model-based policy, and the coupling of the behavior cloning and policy improvement under the diffusion model both contribute to the outstanding performance of Diffusion-QL. We illustrate the superiority of our method compared to prior works in a simple 2D bandit example with a multimodal behavior policy. We then show that our method can achieve state-of-the-art performance on the majority of the D4RL benchmark tasks.
Whilst contrastive learning yields powerful representations by matching different augmented views of the same instance, it lacks the ability to capture the similarities between different instances. One popular way to address this limitation is by learning global features (after the global pooling) to capture inter-instance relationships based on knowledge distillation, where the global features of the teacher are used to guide the learning of the global features of the student. Inspired by cross-modality learning, we extend this existing framework that only learns from global features by encouraging the global features and intermediate layer features to learn from each other. This leads to our novel self-supervised framework: cross-context learning between global and hypercolumn features (CGH), that enforces the consistency of instance relations between low- and high-level semantics. Specifically, we stack the intermediate feature maps to construct a hypercolumn representation so that we can measure instance relations using two contexts (hypercolumn and global feature) separately, and then use the relations of one context to guide the learning of the other. This cross-context learning allows the model to learn from the differences between the two contexts. The experimental results on linear classification and downstream tasks show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.
In learning-to-rank (LTR), optimizing only the relevance (or the expected ranking utility) can cause representational harm to certain categories of items. Moreover, if there is implicit bias in the relevance scores, LTR models may fail to optimize for true relevance. Previous works have proposed efficient algorithms to train stochastic ranking models that achieve fairness of exposure to the groups ex-ante (or, in expectation), which may not guarantee representation fairness to the groups ex-post, that is, after realizing a ranking from the stochastic ranking model. Typically, ex-post fairness is achieved by post-processing, but previous work does not train stochastic ranking models that are aware of this post-processing. In this paper, we propose a novel objective that maximizes expected relevance only over those rankings that satisfy given representation constraints to ensure ex-post fairness. Building upon recent work on an efficient sampler for ex-post group-fair rankings, we propose a group-fair Plackett-Luce model and show that it can be efficiently optimized for our objective in the LTR framework. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that our group-fair algorithm guarantees fairness alongside usually having better relevance compared to the LTR baselines. In addition, our algorithm also achieves better relevance than post-processing baselines, which also ensures ex-post fairness. Further, when implicit bias is injected into the training data, our algorithm typically outperforms existing LTR baselines in relevance.
Data augmentation, the artificial creation of training data for machine learning by transformations, is a widely studied research field across machine learning disciplines. While it is useful for increasing the generalization capabilities of a model, it can also address many other challenges and problems, from overcoming a limited amount of training data over regularizing the objective to limiting the amount data used to protect privacy. Based on a precise description of the goals and applications of data augmentation (C1) and a taxonomy for existing works (C2), this survey is concerned with data augmentation methods for textual classification and aims to achieve a concise and comprehensive overview for researchers and practitioners (C3). Derived from the taxonomy, we divided more than 100 methods into 12 different groupings and provide state-of-the-art references expounding which methods are highly promising (C4). Finally, research perspectives that may constitute a building block for future work are given (C5).
Deep neural networks have revolutionized many machine learning tasks in power systems, ranging from pattern recognition to signal processing. The data in these tasks is typically represented in Euclidean domains. Nevertheless, there is an increasing number of applications in power systems, where data are collected from non-Euclidean domains and represented as the graph-structured data with high dimensional features and interdependency among nodes. The complexity of graph-structured data has brought significant challenges to the existing deep neural networks defined in Euclidean domains. Recently, many studies on extending deep neural networks for graph-structured data in power systems have emerged. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in power systems is proposed. Specifically, several classical paradigms of GNNs structures (e.g., graph convolutional networks, graph recurrent neural networks, graph attention networks, graph generative networks, spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks, and hybrid forms of GNNs) are summarized, and key applications in power systems such as fault diagnosis, power prediction, power flow calculation, and data generation are reviewed in detail. Furthermore, main issues and some research trends about the applications of GNNs in power systems are discussed.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.
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