Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional distances, focusing on two kinds of target parameters. The first is the counterfactual outcome density. We propose a doubly robust-style estimator for the counterfactual density and study its rates of convergence and limiting distributions. We analyze asymptotic upper bounds on the $L_q$ and the integrated $L_q$ risks of the proposed estimator, and propose a bootstrap-based confidence band. The second is a novel distributional causal effect defined by the $L_1$ distance between different counterfactual distributions. We study three approaches for estimating the proposed distributional effect: smoothing the counterfactual density, smoothing the $L_1$ distance, and imposing a margin condition. For each approach, we analyze asymptotic properties and error bounds of the proposed estimator, and discuss potential advantages and disadvantages. We go on to present a bootstrap approach for obtaining confidence intervals, and propose a test of no distributional effect. We conclude with a numerical illustration and a real-world example.
相關內容
A statistical network model with overlapping communities can be generated as a superposition of mutually independent random graphs of varying size. The model is parameterized by the number of nodes, the number of communities, and the joint distribution of the community size and the edge probability. This model admits sparse parameter regimes with power-law limiting degree distributions and non-vanishing clustering coefficients. This article presents large-scale approximations of clique and cycle frequencies for graph samples generated by the model, which are valid for regimes with unbounded numbers of overlapping communities. Our results reveal the growth rates of these subgraph frequencies and show that their theoretical densities can be reliably estimated from data.
Statistical learning under distribution shift is challenging when neither prior knowledge nor fully accessible data from the target distribution is available. Distributionally robust learning (DRL) aims to control the worst-case statistical performance within an uncertainty set of candidate distributions, but how to properly specify the set remains challenging. To enable distributional robustness without being overly conservative, in this paper, we propose a shape-constrained approach to DRL, which incorporates prior information about the way in which the unknown target distribution differs from its estimate. More specifically, we assume the unknown density ratio between the target distribution and its estimate is isotonic with respect to some partial order. At the population level, we provide a solution to the shape-constrained optimization problem that does not involve the isotonic constraint. At the sample level, we provide consistency results for an empirical estimator of the target in a range of different settings. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real data examples demonstrate the improved accuracy of the proposed shape-constrained approach.
We prove, for stably computably enumerable formal systems, direct analogues of the first and second incompleteness theorems of G\"odel. A typical stably computably enumerable set is the set of Diophantine equations with no integer solutions, and in particular such sets are generally not computably enumerable. And so this gives the first extension of the second incompleteness theorem to non classically computable formal systems. Let's motivate this with a somewhat physical application. Let $\mathcal{H} $ be the suitable infinite time limit (stabilization in the sense of the paper) of the mathematical output of humanity, specializing to first order sentences in the language of arithmetic (for simplicity), and understood as a formal system. Suppose that all the relevant physical processes in the formation of $\mathcal{H} $ are Turing computable. Then as defined $\mathcal{H} $ may \emph{not} be computably enumerable, but it is stably computably enumerable. Thus, the classical G\"odel disjunction applied to $\mathcal{H} $ is meaningless, but applying our incompleteness theorems to $\mathcal{H} $ we then get a sharper version of G\"odel's disjunction: assume $\mathcal{H} \vdash PA$ then either $\mathcal{H} $ is not stably computably enumerable or $\mathcal{H} $ is not 1-consistent (in particular is not sound) or $\mathcal{H} $ cannot prove a certain true statement of arithmetic (and cannot disprove it if in addition $\mathcal{H} $ is 2-consistent).
Many combinatorial optimization problems can be formulated as the search for a subgraph that satisfies certain properties and minimizes the total weight. We assume here that the vertices correspond to points in a metric space and can take any position in given uncertainty sets. Then, the cost function to be minimized is the sum of the distances for the worst positions of the vertices in their uncertainty sets. We propose two types of polynomial-time approximation algorithms. The first one relies on solving a deterministic counterpart of the problem where the uncertain distances are replaced with maximum pairwise distances. We study in details the resulting approximation ratio, which depends on the structure of the feasible subgraphs and whether the metric space is Ptolemaic or not. The second algorithm is a fully-polynomial time approximation scheme for the special case of $s-t$ paths.
A discrete spatial lattice can be cast as a network structure over which spatially-correlated outcomes are observed. A second network structure may also capture similarities among measured features, when such information is available. Incorporating the network structures when analyzing such doubly-structured data can improve predictive power, and lead to better identification of important features in the data-generating process. Motivated by applications in spatial disease mapping, we develop a new doubly regularized regression framework to incorporate these network structures for analyzing high-dimensional datasets. Our estimators can be easily implemented with standard convex optimization algorithms. In addition, we describe a procedure to obtain asymptotically valid confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for our model parameters. We show empirically that our framework provides improved predictive accuracy and inferential power compared to existing high-dimensional spatial methods. These advantages hold given fully accurate network information, and also with networks which are partially misspecified or uninformative. The application of the proposed method to modeling COVID-19 mortality data suggests that it can improve prediction of deaths beyond standard spatial models, and that it selects relevant covariates more often.
For several types of information relations, the induced rough sets system RS does not form a lattice but only a partially ordered set. However, by studying its Dedekind-MacNeille completion DM(RS), one may reveal new important properties of rough set structures. Building upon D. Umadevi's work on describing joins and meets in DM(RS), we previously investigated pseudo-Kleene algebras defined on DM(RS) for reflexive relations. This paper delves deeper into the order-theoretic properties of DM(RS) in the context of reflexive relations. We describe the completely join-irreducible elements of DM(RS) and characterize when DM(RS) is a spatial completely distributive lattice. We show that even in the case of a non-transitive reflexive relation, DM(RS) can form a Nelson algebra, a property generally associated with quasiorders. We introduce a novel concept, the core of a relational neighborhood, and use it to provide a necessary and sufficient condition for DM(RS) to determine a Nelson algebra.
In reinsurance, Poisson and Negative binomial distributions are employed for modeling frequency. However, the incomplete data regarding reported incurred claims above a priority level presents challenges in estimation. This paper focuses on frequency estimation using Schnieper's framework for claim numbering. We demonstrate that Schnieper's model is consistent with a Poisson distribution for the total number of claims above a priority at each year of development, providing a robust basis for parameter estimation. Additionally, we explain how to build an alternative assumption based on a Negative binomial distribution, which yields similar results. The study includes a bootstrap procedure to manage uncertainty in parameter estimation and a case study comparing assumptions and evaluating the impact of the bootstrap approach.
We consider a fully discretized numerical scheme for parabolic stochastic partial differential equations with multiplicative noise. Our abstract framework can be applied to formulate a non-iterative domain decomposition approach. Such methods can help to parallelize the code and therefore lead to a more efficient implementation. The domain decomposition is integrated through the Douglas-Rachford splitting scheme, where one split operator acts on one part of the domain. For an efficient space discretization of the underlying equation, we chose the discontinuous Galerkin method as this suits the parallelization strategy well. For this fully discretized scheme, we provide a strong space-time convergence result. We conclude the manuscript with numerical experiments validating our theoretical findings.
Leveraging the large body of work devoted in recent years to describe redundancy and synergy in multivariate interactions among random variables, we propose a novel approach to quantify cooperative effects in feature importance, one of the most used techniques for explainable artificial intelligence. In particular, we propose an adaptive version of a well-known metric of feature importance, named Leave One Covariate Out (LOCO), to disentangle high-order effects involving a given input feature in regression problems. LOCO is the reduction of the prediction error when the feature under consideration is added to the set of all the features used for regression. Instead of calculating the LOCO using all the features at hand, as in its standard version, our method searches for the multiplet of features that maximize LOCO and for the one that minimize it. This provides a decomposition of the LOCO as the sum of a two-body component and higher-order components (redundant and synergistic), also highlighting the features that contribute to building these high-order effects alongside the driving feature. We report the application to proton/pion discrimination from simulated detector measures by GEANT.
Hashing has been widely used in approximate nearest search for large-scale database retrieval for its computation and storage efficiency. Deep hashing, which devises convolutional neural network architecture to exploit and extract the semantic information or feature of images, has received increasing attention recently. In this survey, several deep supervised hashing methods for image retrieval are evaluated and I conclude three main different directions for deep supervised hashing methods. Several comments are made at the end. Moreover, to break through the bottleneck of the existing hashing methods, I propose a Shadow Recurrent Hashing(SRH) method as a try. Specifically, I devise a CNN architecture to extract the semantic features of images and design a loss function to encourage similar images projected close. To this end, I propose a concept: shadow of the CNN output. During optimization process, the CNN output and its shadow are guiding each other so as to achieve the optimal solution as much as possible. Several experiments on dataset CIFAR-10 show the satisfying performance of SRH.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191