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In many practical applications, such as fraud detection, credit risk modeling or medical decision making, classification models for assigning instances to a predefined set of classes are required to be both precise as well as interpretable. Linear modeling methods such as logistic regression are often adopted, since they offer an acceptable balance between precision and interpretability. Linear methods, however, are not well equipped to handle categorical predictors with high-cardinality or to exploit non-linear relations in the data. As a solution, data preprocessing methods such as weight-of-evidence are typically used for transforming the predictors. The binning procedure that underlies the weight-of-evidence approach, however, has been little researched and typically relies on ad-hoc or expert driven procedures. The objective in this paper, therefore, is to propose a formalized, data-driven and powerful method. To this end, we explore the discretization of continuous variables through the binning of spline functions, which allows for capturing non-linear effects in the predictor variables and yields highly interpretable predictors taking only a small number of discrete values. Moreover, we extend upon the weight-of-evidence approach and propose to estimate the proportions using shrinkage estimators. Together, this offers an improved ability to exploit both non-linear and categorical predictors for achieving increased classification precision, while maintaining interpretability of the resulting model and decreasing the risk of overfitting. We present the results of a series of experiments in a fraud detection setting, which illustrate the effectiveness of the presented approach. We facilitate reproduction of the presented results and adoption of the proposed approaches by providing both the dataset and the code for implementing the experiments and the presented approach.

The popular Bayesian meta-analysis expressed by Bayesian normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) synthesizes knowledge from several studies and is highly relevant in practice. Moreover, NNHM is the simplest Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), which illustrates problems typical in more complex BHMs. Until now, it has been unclear to what extent the data determines the marginal posterior distributions of the parameters in NNHM. To address this issue we computed the second derivative of the Bhattacharyya coefficient with respect to the weighted likelihood, defined the total empirical determinacy (TED), the proportion of the empirical determinacy of location to TED (pEDL), and the proportion of the empirical determinacy of spread to TED (pEDS). We implemented this method in the R package \texttt{ed4bhm} and considered two case studies and one simulation study. We quantified TED, pEDL and pEDS under different modeling conditions such as model parametrization, the primary outcome, and the prior. This clarified to what extent the location and spread of the marginal posterior distributions of the parameters are determined by the data. Although these investigations focused on Bayesian NNHM, the method proposed is applicable more generally to complex BHMs.

We consider the problem of inference for nonlinear, multivariate diffusion processes, satisfying It\^o stochastic differential equations (SDEs), using data at discrete times that may be incomplete and subject to measurement error. Our starting point is a state-of-the-art correlated pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, that uses correlated particle filters to induce strong and positive correlation between successive likelihood estimates. However, unless the measurement error or the dimension of the SDE is small, correlation can be eroded by the resampling steps in the particle filter. We therefore propose a novel augmentation scheme, that allows for conditioning on values of the latent process at the observation times, completely avoiding the need for resampling steps. We integrate over the uncertainty at the observation times with an additional Gibbs step. Connections between the resulting pseudo-marginal scheme and existing inference schemes for diffusion processes are made, giving a unified inference framework that encompasses Gibbs sampling and pseudo marginal schemes. The methodology is applied in three examples of increasing complexity. We find that our approach offers substantial increases in overall efficiency, compared to competing methods.

Training large-scale mixture of experts models efficiently on modern hardware requires assigning datapoints in a batch to different experts, each with a limited capacity. Recently proposed assignment procedures lack a probabilistic interpretation and use biased estimators for training. As an alternative, we propose two unbiased estimators based on principled stochastic assignment procedures: one that skips datapoints which exceed expert capacity, and one that samples perfectly balanced assignments using an extension of the Gumbel-Matching distribution [29]. Both estimators are unbiased, as they correct for the used sampling procedure. On a toy experiment, we find the `skip'-estimator is more effective than the balanced sampling one, and both are more robust in solving the task than biased alternatives.

Smoothing splines have been used pervasively in nonparametric regressions. However, the computational burden of smoothing splines is significant when the sample size $n$ is large. When the number of predictors $d\geq2$, the computational cost for smoothing splines is at the order of $O(n^3)$ using the standard approach. Many methods have been developed to approximate smoothing spline estimators by using $q$ basis functions instead of $n$ ones, resulting in a computational cost of the order $O(nq^2)$. These methods are called the basis selection methods. Despite algorithmic benefits, most of the basis selection methods require the assumption that the sample is uniformly-distributed on a hyper-cube. These methods may have deteriorating performance when such an assumption is not met. To overcome the obstacle, we develop an efficient algorithm that is adaptive to the unknown probability density function of the predictors. Theoretically, we show the proposed estimator has the same convergence rate as the full-basis estimator when $q$ is roughly at the order of $O[n^{2d/\{(pr+1)(d+2)\}}\quad]$, where $p\in[1,2]$ and $r\approx 4$ are some constants depend on the type of the spline. Numerical studies on various synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed estimator in comparison with mainstream competitors.

Modern high-dimensional point process data, especially those from neuroscience experiments, often involve observations from multiple conditions and/or experiments. Networks of interactions corresponding to these conditions are expected to share many edges, but also exhibit unique, condition-specific ones. However, the degree of similarity among the networks from different conditions is generally unknown. Existing approaches for multivariate point processes do not take these structures into account and do not provide inference for jointly estimated networks. To address these needs, we propose a joint estimation procedure for networks of high-dimensional point processes that incorporates easy-to-compute weights in order to data-adaptively encourage similarity between the estimated networks. We also propose a powerful hierarchical multiple testing procedure for edges of all estimated networks, which takes into account the data-driven similarity structure of the multi-experiment networks. Compared to conventional multiple testing procedures, our proposed procedure greatly reduces the number of tests and results in improved power, while tightly controlling the family-wise error rate. Unlike existing procedures, our method is also free of assumptions on dependency between tests, offers flexibility on p-values calculated along the hierarchy, and is robust to misspecification of the hierarchical structure. We verify our theoretical results via simulation studies and demonstrate the application of the proposed procedure using neuronal spike train data.

We explore the connection between outlier-robust high-dimensional statistics and non-convex optimization in the presence of sparsity constraints, with a focus on the fundamental tasks of robust sparse mean estimation and robust sparse PCA. We develop novel and simple optimization formulations for these problems such that any approximate stationary point of the associated optimization problem yields a near-optimal solution for the underlying robust estimation task. As a corollary, we obtain that any first-order method that efficiently converges to stationarity yields an efficient algorithm for these tasks. The obtained algorithms are simple, practical, and succeed under broader distributional assumptions compared to prior work.

Recent development of 3D sensors allows the acquisition of extremely dense 3D point clouds of large-scale scenes. The main challenge of processing such large point clouds remains in the size of the data, which induce expensive computational and memory cost. In this context, the full resolution cloud is particularly hard to process, and details it brings are rarely exploited. Although fine-grained details are important for detection of small objects, they can alter the local geometry of large structural parts and mislead deep learning networks. In this paper, we introduce a new generic deep learning pipeline to exploit the full precision of large scale point clouds, but only for objects that require details. The core idea of our approach is to split up the process into multiple sub-networks which operate on different resolutions and with each their specific classes to retrieve. Thus, the pipeline allows each class to benefit either from noise and memory cost reduction of a sub-sampling or from fine-grained details.

Various 3D reconstruction methods have enabled civil engineers to detect damage on a road surface. To achieve the millimetre accuracy required for road condition assessment, a disparity map with subpixel resolution needs to be used. However, none of the existing stereo matching algorithms are specially suitable for the reconstruction of the road surface. Hence in this paper, we propose a novel dense subpixel disparity estimation algorithm with high computational efficiency and robustness. This is achieved by first transforming the perspective view of the target frame into the reference view, which not only increases the accuracy of the block matching for the road surface but also improves the processing speed. The disparities are then estimated iteratively using our previously published algorithm where the search range is propagated from three estimated neighbouring disparities. Since the search range is obtained from the previous iteration, errors may occur when the propagated search range is not sufficient. Therefore, a correlation maxima verification is performed to rectify this issue, and the subpixel resolution is achieved by conducting a parabola interpolation enhancement. Furthermore, a novel disparity global refinement approach developed from the Markov Random Fields and Fast Bilateral Stereo is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the estimated disparity map, where disparities are updated iteratively by minimising the energy function that is related to their interpolated correlation polynomials. The algorithm is implemented in C language with a near real-time performance. The experimental results illustrate that the absolute error of the reconstruction varies from 0.1 mm to 3 mm.

The task of multi-person human pose estimation in natural scenes is quite challenging. Existing methods include both top-down and bottom-up approaches. The main advantage of bottom-up methods is its excellent tradeoff between estimation accuracy and computational cost. We follow this path and aim to design smaller, faster, and more accurate neural networks for the regression of keypoints and limb association vectors. These two regression tasks are naturally dependent on each other. In this work, we propose a dual-path network specially designed for multi-person human pose estimation, and compare our performance with the openpose network in aspects of model size, forward speed, and estimation accuracy.